Update on my million dollar bet

Written by Steve Kirsch on April 16, 2025. Posted in Current News

We’ll be submitting round five soon. It ends at round six. Here is a summary of my argument as to why the mRNA COVID shots killed more than they saved in the US in 2021-2022

I think I’m on very solid ground. What do you think?

The argument

Vaccines can only provide a benefit if they either:

1. Reduce cases or
2. Reduce the case fatality rate (CFR).

The COVID vaccines didn’t do either; they increased both cases and the CFR.

There is lots of evidence on the CFR increase in the US at the national, state, and local level and I confirmed the exact same effect in the Czech Republic. The consistency is quite stunning.

Because the vaccines weakened the immunity of the vaccinated, the vaccinated got more COVID. This has been shown in the Cleveland Clinic study which has been replicated many times.

To calculate the impact, you take 600K COVID deaths post vaccine * (1 – 1/1.84) based on an 84 percent increase in cases from the 2.2 in the for two doses (0.3+(.7*2.2)=1.84. This comes out at 275,000 deaths.

The shots also caused a lot of non-COVID deaths (i.e., non-COVID all-cause mortality or NCACM) with studies showing a vaccine dose fatality rate (vDFR) of .05 percent or more, which translates into a minimum of 330,000 excess deaths.

I can also show that the most objective assessment of benefit, doing a simple linear regression between vaccination rate of a state or county vs. the change in mortality relative to pre-vaccination mortality levels is always positive, meaning the vaccines made things worse.

States or counties. Same answer. 2021. 2022. And both years combined.

I could not find a single credible study showing that the COVID vaccine reduces your risk of dying from COVID (VEdeath). The study either didn’t measure the VEdeath directly or failed to account for the non-COVID mortality rate of the unvaccinated cohort.

We can show, using the most dispositive publicly available record level data (from the Czech Republic of all places), that there is no protection. It’s all a mirage caused by selection bias (people opting to be vaccinated are less likely to die for a number of reasons).

No knee!

See how we break from the trendline 15 months after the vaccine rolls out?

The break from the trendline should have happened when the vaccines rolled out. Remember “flatten the curve” ?

See that chart above? It’s the elephant in the room that nobody notices. It’s saying that our interventions didn’t alter the natural course of the virus.

Summary

1. It didn’t reduce the CFR
2. It increased cases resulting in over 275,000 excess deaths
3. It increased NCACM causing over 330,000 deaths

So were looking at somewhere around 600,000 people killed by these shots.

The most compelling confirmation of these claims is the US states, counties regression analysis that I showed in my last post, but I have loads of evidence for each of the three points above.

Finally, the absence of a single credible study showing a COVID death benefit for the vaccinated is stunning.

And so is the lack of a “knee” in the cumulative COVID deaths curve. That’s the obvious “tell” in plain sight. It’s the elephant in the room that nobody notices.

Please let me know in the comments if you think I’ve made a mistake or missed something.

See more here substack.com

Header image: Republic World

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