The Sun And Water Vapour Drive Climatic Changes, Not CO2
Natural changes in cloud albedo, absorbed shortwave forcing (ASW), and solar activity (TSI, total solar irradiance) are “the dominant factors driving climate change”
Dai Ato, an independent researcher from Japan, has completed a comprehensive regression analysis (Ato, 2026) using key climate variables and published the results in the Science of Climate Change journal.
Using widely accepted global temperature, specific humidity, solar activity, and albedo (cloud) datasets, Ato has reaffirmed the now-common conclusion (Koutsoyiannis, 2024; Berry, 2023; Nikolov and Zeller, 2024; Grabyan, 2025; Soon et al., 2023; Ato, 2024) that absorbed shortwave radiation forcing (via cloud albedo changes) and variations in solar activity are driving modern global warming.
Human-made CO2 is not a primary driver of climate change.
Similar to the dependence of water vapor or specific humidity on temperature, multivariate analysis supports the conclusion that changes in CO2 are a consequence or a “byproduct” of global sea surface temperature (G-SST).
CO2 thus has almost no explanatory power as a causal factor in 21st-century ‘climate change’.
“CO2 is not needed as an explanatory factor. Therefore, these results demonstrate that CO2, a byproduct of preceding SST, has virtually no explanatory power for G-SST, even secondarily.”
“[W]ater vapor, the primary contributor to the greenhouse effect on Earth, has been a dependent variable of global SST at least since the year 2000.”
In contrast to CO2’s “negative explanatory factor” climate sensitivity, ASW [absorbed shortwave radiation] and TSI [total solar irradiance] have a “positive explanatory power” with far better sequencing and correlational alignment as causal agents in modern global warming trends, or ‘climate change’.
Comprehensive data analysis can thus be shown to undermine key tenets of the anthropogenic global warming theory.
“Furthermore, multivariate analysis confirmed that the combination of leading ASW and TSI most effectively predicts G-SST since 2000.” …
“The sequence of influence on Earth’s climate is as follows: solar activity and albedo determine Earth’s SST and air temperature, and SST then exclusively determines G-SpHm [global specific humidity/water vapor concentrations]. Compared to these two indicators (ASW and TSI), the influence of atmospheric CO2 was confirmed to be effectively negligible.” …
“These results indicate that from 2000 to the present, the dominant factors driving climate change have been solar activity and cloud variations by reducing albedo in the sky during the period.
Consequently, the anthropogenic theory of global warming and the positive feedback theory are denied, according to the data of worldwide prominent climate research institutes. Furthermore, since human influence remains negligible even in the 21st century, the same holds true for the past.”
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Crackpot
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A lit match has more of an effect on global temperatures that the “greenhouse gas effect” because it DOES NOT EXIST.
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very old white guy
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Time to stop the foolishness, the climate has been changing for millions of years, get over it and do what we have always done, adapt.
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Herb Rose
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The trouble for the people trying to use science to disprove the CO2 nonsense is that the science they use is also nonsense.
Liquid water is transparent to visible light so the light striking the clouds in the troposphere are not being reflected back into space but are be refracted and scattered in the troposphere where it is later absorb by matter not transparent to visible light.
The temperature recorded by a thermometer in the atmosphere does not indicate the kinetic energy of the gas molecules but the energy of a volume of gas molecules. The greater the altitude the greater the kinetic energy of the gas molecules and the greater the volume of the gas. Gas molecules, like all matter, absorb and emit radiated energy. The O2 and N2 absorb 95% of the uv coming from the sun and emit it as kinetic energy.
The water in the atmosphere is not a gas. If it were it would follow the Universal Gas Law. A gas phase chart of water shows it cannot be a gas at sea level below 100 C. This means water cannot “evaporate” from the oceans much less from ice or snow.
To convince the idiot experts in California of their stupidity in believing in “man made climate change” take them out into the pacific in the summer. The weather moves west to east so according to them, the air temperature can never get hotter than the water temperature. If they still maintain their beliefs rather than the evidence throw them off the boat,
What we have is two people who believe they are Napoleon coming to the correct conclusion that the other guy is wrong but not recognizing that they are also wrong.
Reply
Herb Rose
| #
The trouble for the people trying to use science to disprove the CO2 nonsense is that the science they use is also nonsense.
Liquid water is transparent to visible light so the light striking the clouds in the troposphere are not being reflected back into space but are be refracted and scattered in the troposphere where it is later absorb by matter not transparent to visible light.
The temperature recorded by a thermometer in the atmosphere does not indicate the kinetic energy of the gas molecules but the energy of a volume of gas molecules. The greater the altitude the greater the kinetic energy of the gas molecules and the greater the volume of the gas. Gas molecules, like all matter, absorb and emit radiated energy. The O2 and N2 absorb 95% of the uv coming from the sun and emit it as kinetic energy.
The water in the atmosphere is not a gas. If it were it would follow the Universal Gas Law. A gas phase chart of water shows it cannot be a gas at sea level below 100 C. This means water cannot “evaporate” from the oceans much less from ice or snow.
To convince the idiot experts in California of their stupidity in believing in “man made climate change” take them out into the pacific in the summer. The weather moves west to east so according to them, the air temperature can never get hotter than the water temperature. If they still maintain their beliefs rather than the evidence throw them off the boat,
What we have is two people who believe they are Napoleon coming to the correct conclusion that the other guy is wrong but not recognizing that they are also wrong.
Reply