UK’s Low Death Rate Discredits Government’s Lockdown Lunacy

Written by Dr Darko Butina on January 6, 2021. Posted in Current News

According to the Office for National Statistics database, the 2020 Total Weekly Deaths (all causes) for the Age Group 1-14 are one of the lowest in the last 11 years, but many schools will remain closed for many more weeks.

It seems that the government has completely lost the plot, with keeping many schools closed for at least another 3 weeks using the old and worn-out narrative  of ‘saving  lives’ while totally ignoring mortality data at ONS (www.ons.gov.uk).

The graph below displays weekly deaths for the age group 1-14 years old for years 2010 to 2020, where years 2010 to 2019 were displayed as dots, while year 2020 is displayed as a red line. The two green lines represent the top and the bottom normality boundaries respectively and all the datapoints within those two green lines are classified as normal due to their regular annual patterns.

The Mean, also known as average, and Standard Deviation, SD, are two parameters need to construct the Normal Distribution Curve where 95-96% of datapoints should be found between two Standard Deviations on either side of the mean, between 9 and 29 weekly deaths, respectively:

The key points summarised in Table 2 below are:

• Between 9 and 29 weekly deaths are considered as normal and the account for 97% (552 weeks out of 570) of all deaths for age group 1-14 for last 11 years
• Since 97% of weekly deaths reflect annual patterns for last 11 years, one would expect with the 97% probability that the similar patterns will occur in the future years
• Only 3% (8 weeks out of 570) of all weekly deaths are outside the Mean + 2xSD upper normality boundary, and those patterns are best described as rare events and as such have exceptionally low probability of occurring in the future
• The Civid-19 year, 2020, does NOT have a single weekly death outside upper normality boundary

The highest weekly mortality for age group 1-14 was recorded in 2012, nine years ago:

To finish this report and bring some sanity to all this manufactured hysteria about Covid-19, the table below shows how desperate the government is to justify keeping the entire UK population imprisoned.

In the last 11 years the Total Deaths for 1-14 years old varied between seven and thirty deaths per week, let me repeat this, between 7 and 38 deaths (all causes), while the total weekly deaths for last 11 years varied between 6,606 and 22,351 each week. The maximum weekly death for 1-14 age group represents 0.17% of the maximum observed total deaths during the same period!

PSI Editor’s note: Please read Dr Butina’s previous reports on this issue here and here.

About the author: Dr Darko Butina has spent his professional career of 40 years in the Drug Discovery sector, 20 years as an experimental chemist during which time he was an integral part of the team that discovered the first effective treatment for migraine. During his last 20 years, he moved in the field of the computational drug discovery where computers and statistics are used to optimise the potential drug-like molecules in terms of their activity and safety. During that period, he developed a new clustering algorithm that can classify/group molecules in terms of their chemical structure, activity, and drug-like properties. His algorithm became a standard in the global pharmaceutical industry and academia.

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