Official UK Data Show NO COVID19 Deaths After May 2020

Written by Dr Darko Butina on October 27, 2020. Posted in Current News

My previous report for Principia Scientific International (October 11, 2020) showed the graph below where the weekly mortality rates for England and Wales for the last 21 years, 1999-2020 are plotted:

Figure 1. Plot of all weekly mortality rates for last 21 years (1999 – 2020). Highlighted years 2020 (red), 1999/2000 (light blue) and 2019 (yellow)

The undisputed fact from that graph was that since the end of May it was impossible to differentiate weekly mortality rates between 2020 and the previous 20 years and I made the following conclusion:

“Fact 3. It is scientifically, statistically, and logically impossible to argue, that it is justifiable to impose the unprecedented lockdown of this country, using extremely high weekly mortality rates observed in April and May, while totally ignoring the fact the weekly mortality rates for the last the 4 months have returned back to normal and are indistinguishable from the same annual period observed in last 21 years. Instead of totally removing distancing and face masks, the government is talking about starting another round of lockdowns. Why and on what evidence – it cannot be weekly mortality rates”

It seems that the government and all the news outlets have come to the same conclusion and recently have abandoned a very honourable mantra about saving human lives to a new and much less honourable slogan ‘Hundreds of thousands of new cases…”

Let us now look at some facts and more lies and see whether you can decide which is which.

To emphasise the issue of no excess deaths since the end of May, I produced this graph below as a little quiz question for the statisticians at The Office of National Statistics, NOS, and governmental advisors: “Can you tell which line belongs to 2020”?

To give you a little hint, that little light blue blip in august is not 2020 but belongs to 2003:

Figure 2. Mortality rates for weeks between the end of May and the first week in October for all the years between 1999 and 2020

Each line represents the mortality rates between w-22 (29 May) w-40 (2 October), while the scale of Y-axis goes from 0 to 24,000 and identical to the scale of Fig.1 at the top of the report since has been extracted from the same graph. It very clearly reflects drastic drop of mortality from 22,351 (w-16 2020) to the levels of around 9,000 for the last 4 months which are almost identical for all years between 1999 and 2020.

So, the question “Can you tell which line belongs to 2020” is a really a nasty question and difficult to answer, but it does explain why the phrase ‘help saving human lives’ has disappeared from the vocabulary of the news reporting!!

You see, if you make the most logical conclusion – “it is impossible to differentiate weekly mortalities between 2020 and previous 20 years”, it must follow that the lockdowns cannot be justified by the excess mortality argument! So, the only other way to justify the new lockdowns is to drop word ‘mortality’ and invent another catch phrase, like ‘number of new cases’.

But now you get stuck with another problem even more difficult to argue. As you will see below, the latest ‘number of cases’ quoted are about 760,000 but they are not causing any mortality, see Fig.2. As it always happens when one is caught lying or ‘massaging’ the data, one is now stuck with this illogical set of arguments:

1. How to explain the fact that out of 760,000 positive tests for Covid-19 (see below) nobody has died and has survived without any vaccination or any drug treatment (see above)?
   1. If the tests for Covid-19 are 100% accurate but nobody has died, then Covid-19 is not any different then any other flu
   2. If the tests are 100% inaccurate then why quoting them and use them for another round of lockdowns
   3. It is impossible to justify new round of lockdowns using either scientific or statistical arguments with the objective to save human lives without offending our intelligence

Could it possibly be that all those anonymous scientists have totally forgotten and ignored the survival of the fittest throughout millions of years of evolution which has developed the most powerful defensive tools that we humans have – our immune system?

But  logical thinking and basic understanding of science and statistics obviously has no place in the news reporting. If anyone knows how to square the circle and can interpret the numbers below, please let me know. Just to point out to you that BBC’s death numbers are from April and May (see Fig.2) while the new 241 deaths probably come after consulting Mystic Meg for her prediction:

Figure 3. Latest statistics from the BBC

Figure 4. More of the same

About the author: Dr Darko Butina has spent his professional career of 40 years in the Drug Discovery sector, 20 years as an experimental chemist during which time he was an integral part of the team that discovered the first effective treatment for migraine. During his last 20 years, he moved in the field of the computational drug discovery where computers and statistics are used to optimise the potential drug-like molecules in terms of their activity and safety. During that period, he developed a new clustering algorithm that can classify/group molecules in terms of their chemical structure, activity, and drug-like properties. His algorithm became a standard in the global pharmaceutical industry and academia.

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