The Climate Role Of Our Sun Confirmed
Image: RT
If you ask most climate scientists, they will tell you that the Sun’s small variability is unimportant when it comes to influencing climate. They may have to change their minds if a new line of research holds up.
It seems that solar variability can drive climate variability on Earth on decadal timescales (the decadal climatic variability that Michael Mann recently ‘proved’ doesn’t exist).
That’s the conclusion of a new study showing a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
Top: Six-month smoothed monthly sunspot number from SILSO. Bottom: Oceanic El Niño Index from NOAA. Red and blue boxes mark the El Niño and La Niña periods in the repeating pattern. Source: Climate Etc, September 2019
It’s a result that could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have several global climate effects.
“Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,” said Scott McIntosh, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a co-author of the paper. “Even so, the scientific community has been unclear on the role that solar variability plays in influencing weather and climate events here on Earth. This study shows there’s reason to believe it absolutely does and why the connection may have been missed in the past.”
The approximately 11-year solar cycle – the appearance (and disappearance) of spots on the Sun – has been known for hundreds of years.
In this new study, the researchers use a 22-year “clock” for solar activity derived from the Sun’s magnetic polarity cycle, which they consider a more regular alternative to the 11-year solar cycle.
This research was published last year.
‘Coincidence unlikely‘
Applying this to climate studies the researchers found that the five estimates of the end of a solar cycle that occurred between 1960 and 2010-11 all coincided with a flip from an El Nino (when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average) to a La Nina (when the sea surface temperatures are cooler than average).
The end of the most recent solar cycle – happening now – is also coincident with the beginning of a La Nina event. Robert Leamon of the University of Maryland/Baltimore County said, “Five consecutive terminators lining up with a switch in the El Nino oscillation is not likely to be a coincidence.”
In fact, only a 1 in 5,000 chance or less (depending on the statistical test) that all five terminator events included in the study would randomly coincide with the flip in ocean temperatures.
Now that a sixth terminator event — and the corresponding start of a new solar cycle in 2020 — has also coincided with a La Nina event, the chance of a random occurrence is even more remote.
The paper does not delve into what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but the authors note that there are several possibilities that warrant further study, including the influence of the Sun’s magnetic field on the number of cosmic rays that escape into the solar system and ultimately bombard Earth.
However, a robust physical link between cosmic ray variations and climate has yet to be determined.
“If further research can establish that there is a physical connection and that changes on the Sun are truly causing variability in the oceans, then we may be able to improve our ability to predict El Nino and La Nina events,” McIntosh said.
See more here: climatechangedispatch.com
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Roger Higgs
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Excellent work.
That’s one more nail in the coffin of ‘man-made’ global warming.
Here’s another, released yesterday (500 words, 3-minute read; 1,000 viewings in 24 hours) …
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350726458_Global_warming_and_cooling_for_last_2000_years_mimic_Sun's_magnetic_activity_not_CO2_scientific_literature_synthesis
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Barry
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Ya I think they can see the writing on the wall now. A lot of experts slowly changing their stance on agw. Who knew that the sun heats the earth and not back radiation from a trace gas. Still they will war on about the damage man does instead of admitting they were wrong and some should now admit they lied. I’m not holding my breath for that to happen.
Happy grand solar minimum everyone
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Andy
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Alarmists and social media will of course label this as ‘false information’.
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Herb Rose
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People will smear goo all over their bodies to protect themselves from the 5% of the UV radiation (produced in solar flares) striking the Earth’s surface but believe that the 95% being absorbed by the atmosphere does nothing to add energy to the atmosphere.
The concentration of ozone in the “ozone layer” is 10 ppm. The belief that it the ozone absorbing the UV energy is ridiculous. It is the 99% of oxygen and nitrogen that are absorbing the energy and it is the absorption of UV by oxygen that creates the ozone.The sun’s UV is adding energy (heating) the atmosphere not the surface of the Earth which is heated by visible light (which only varies by .1% during the cycle)
The conservation of momentum dictates that when an object with more velocity (energy) strikes an object with less energy it will transfer energy to it REGARDLESS OF THE OBJECTS MASSES. This means the higher velocity gas molecules in the atmosphere will transfer energy or heat the slower more massive molecules on the Earth’s surface even though the gas molecules have less kinetic energy (cooler).than the molecules on the surface.
During a solar minimum the atmosphere is not heating the surface of the Earth and and even though the amount of visible light heating the surface of the Earth remains constant, the Earth gets colder.
Until scientist realize that the thermometer is not recording the mean kinetic energy of the gases but the total momentum of the molecules striking it, they will never understand weather or climate.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers (especially who are astronomers),
In this article I read: “The approximately 11-year solar cycle – the appearance (and disappearance) of spots on the Sun – has been known for hundreds of years. In this new study, the researchers use a 22-year “clock” for solar activity derived from the Sun’s magnetic polarity cycle, which they consider a more regular alternative to the 11-year solar cycle.”
I know there is another observed approximate 11-year cycle. It is Jupiter’s sidereal period of 11.86 years.
Newton wrote, Motte’s Translation, (Proposition XVIII. Theorem IV. Book III., The Principlis, 1687: “The spots in the sun’s body return to the same situation on the sun’s disk, with respect to the earth, in 27 1/2 days; and therefore with respect to the fixed stars the sun revolves in about 25 1/2 days.” That the diurnal motions o the planets are uniform, and that the libration of the moon arises from its diurnal motion.)”
Newton concluded this Proposition: “So also, the utmost satellite of Jupiter seems to revolve about its axis with a like motion, because in that part of its body which is turned from Jupiter it has a spot, which is always appears as if it were in Jupiter’s own body, whenever the satellite passes between Jupiter and our eye.”
JoAnna Wendel (https://www.space.com/jupiter-great-red-spot.html) wrote: “When you think of Jupiter, you might think of its massive size, or colorful bands of gases stretching across its face. Or you might think of the iconic storm, that huge, churning red hurricane twice the size of Earth that’s remained a signature of our solar system’s largest planet since for more than a century. This is Jupiter’s Great Red Spot and it has captivated humans for generations.”
I have reviewed this because I am not an astronomer and I have two questions: Did Newton refer to what is now termed ‘Jupiter’s Great Red Spot’ and do (can) we only observe Jupiter’s Red Spot about every 11 years?
Have a good day, Jerry
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