So about those hurricanes…

An important difference between climate science and the normal kind is that in climate science, failed predictions don’t diminish people’s faith in a theory.

For instance on hurricanes. The 2023 season was meant to be nasty and fizzled out. So they predicted horrors for 2024 as well. And as it’s proving a dud too, we’re told “Here’s when hurricane activity is expected to return”.

And if it doesn’t, well, you just wait for 2025. Or 2026. We’re bound to get lucky some day. As in unlucky, but everything is upside-down in the wacky world of climate alarmism.

The article panting for the return of hurricane season did its best with some distinctly unpromising material. It started with a mighty blast: “Hurricane season roared to life in late June and early July as Beryl became the earliest Category 5 on record.” Alas:

“Since then, however, the Atlantic has been bereft of tropical activity, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center doesn’t anticipate storm development for at least a week.”

Bummer. And to its credit the story does concede that:

“Considering all of the forecasts for an active season – Colorado State University upped its forecast to 25 total named storms just two weeks ago – an understandable question would be: Where are the hurricanes?”

Weird, huh? They were all telling us stuff like “hold on to your butts” because there were going to be dozens of named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven majors.

Instead thus far all we got was this lousy Hurricane Beryl, plus Storm Alfredo and something they barely had time to baptize, as “Chris was a marginal storm that lasted only about 12 hours.”  But as we said back in late May of this year:

“It’s a prediction-like object. But not an actual prediction because if it does not happen, they will not come back, admit it didn’t, and cast doubt on any of these cause-and-effect claims.”

Now we get more of the same. See, the story answers its own question with:

“The short answer is that they’re still coming and the current break in activity isn’t unexpected or unusual. It could well be the calm before the storm. Hurricane season doesn’t peak until Sept. 15 on average, with activity often lasting well into November.

Moreover, the weather patterns expected to help fuel an active season are just starting to take shape. A burgeoning La Niña weather pattern will favour more upward-moving air across the Atlantic, enhancing the number of storms that can form.

It will also help promote weaker-than-normal upper-level winds that favour increased storm organization. Meanwhile, record-warm water temperatures will provide ample fuel to make storms stronger. Storm activity so far this season is actually running ahead of average, despite the recent hiatus.”

So you see, it’s already happening even if it’s not, and it’s definitely going to happen even if it doesn’t.

Of course here at CDN we’re no “deniers”. We readily concede that weather is variable, that climate changes constantly, and that a quiet start to a hurricane season is no reason to think it won’t get ugly.

Indeed, there could be another monster between the time we write these words and the time you read them, because if you look at the historical record, of all wretched things, you find that there’s been enormous variability among hurricane seasons for as long as we’ve been keeping track.

Mind you, there’s been no secular trend or, if there has, it’s been a decrease. And while you might think it’s not the prediction you were hoping for, if someone were to hypothesize that hurricane seasons will continue to be unpredictable it might be the most we could get;

As noted above, just because you need to know something is no guarantee that you’ll be able to. Life is uncertain, including the bit called “weather”.

We do actually have a more rigorous prediction to make here. If the season remains quiet, nobody who insisted that it would be active because humans have ruined the weather will apologize, or suffer any consequences. And they’ll be back next spring saying it again.

There’s one cluster of windiness you can bet on.