Scientific Competence – The Ability To Correctly Predict
The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Following are the correct predictions of Allan MacRae and colleagues on two important subjects:
– GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM
– COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS AND ”VACCINES”
Our scientific predictions on both these subjects are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.
THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY FRAUD
CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2002
In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae published:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Allan MacRae published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as we published in 2002, one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s 2003 global cooling prediction.
NEW LITTLE ICE AGE INSTEAD OF GLOBAL WARMING?
T. Landscheidt, May 1, 2003
[excerpt]
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.
MORE CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2013
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, BRITISH UNDERSECRETARY FOR ENERGY
By Allan MacRae, October 31, 2013
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
MacRae’s 2013 Open Letter was verified in 2021, with extreme cold winter forecasts and a green-energy-crippled electrical grid in Britain and Germany:
EUROPE IS SWITCHING BACK TO COAL TO SURVIVE BLEAK WINTER
GWPF International September 25, 2021
[excerpt]
The European energy crisis deepened in 2022, especially in Britain and German which over-relied on intermittent wind power generation.
EUROPE’S SELF-MADE ENERGY CRISIS
By Conor Bernstein Real Clear Energy January 31, 2022
[excerpt]
The European energy crisis is poised to go from very bad to unimaginably worse. While all eyes are on Ukraine and Russia, Europe’s energy woes are largely self-made, not due to outside forces.
Europe has made its own bed, disassembling dispatchable fuel diversity by closing well-operating coal and nuclear power plants. In doing so it has deepened its already troubling reliance on an insecure and volatile natural gas market dominated by Vladimir Putin. Europe is, in fact, more dependent on Russian gas today than it was when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
OTHER GLOBAL COOLING FORECASTS:
THE NEW LITTLE ICE AGE HAS STARTED
H. I. Abdussamatov 2016
“The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 “in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.”
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA: “WE ENTERED THE ‘MODERN’ GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM ON JUNE 8, 2020”
August 30, 2020 Cap Allon
A new editorial paper has landed from Professor Valentina Zharkova, entitled: “Modern Grand Solar Minimum will Lead to Terrestrial Cooling“. Published on August 4, 2020, Zharkova’s latest analysis suggests that June 8, 2020 was the date on which we entered the Modern (Eddy) Grand Solar Minimum.
The opening paragraph reads:
In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.
Dr Zharkova’s co-author Dr Yelena Popova was interviewed about their 2015 paper predicting global cooling, starting circa 2020.
DOES MACHINE LEARNING RECONSTRUCT MISSING SUNSPOTS AND FORECAST A NEW SOLAR MINIMUM?
V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, D.R. Legates, August 1, 2021
[excerpt]
In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so).
Herrera, Soon and Legates in 2021 used a novel analysis and reached a similar conclusion, for cooling from ~2008 to ~2050.
I published that there was a period of global cooling that started in ~2008 at the end of Solar Cycle 23, and this cooling ended circa 2013.
MORE EVIDENCE OF COOLING
Global cooling started circa February 2020, driven not by CO2 but by low solar activity at the end of SC24. See electroverse.net for extreme-cold events and crop losses.
Severe flooding in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has destroyed crops and caused major concerns about food supply.
Expert meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and MacRae co-authored this paper about the huge crop failures across the Great Plains of North America in 2019.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
[excerpt]
It is notable that crop planting has occurred one month later-than-usual in the North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. While warm summer weather saved the 2018 crop, in 2019 the Northern corn and soybean harvests were devastated by a cold summer and early cold weather. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs.
The following two papers published in 2020 and 2021 explain the twin frauds of Climate and Covid – scams that are promoted by the same leftist groups for financial and political gain.
THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (CAGW) AND THE HUMANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISES ARE PROVED FALSE
By Allan M.R. MacRae, January 10, 2020
[excerpt]
There are numerous highly credible observations that falsify the CAGW hypothesis and many are listed herein, but as Albert Einstein famously stated “One would be enough”.
CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET
A Climate And Energy Primer For Politicians And Media
By Allan M.R. MacRae, March 21, 2021. Update 1e May 8, 2021
[excerpt]
The same leftist groups concocted and promoted the global warming fraud and the Covid-19 lockdown scam, for political and financial gain. Then these groups linked the two frauds, stating “to solve Covid-19 we have to solve Climate Change” – utterly false and foolish, not even plausible enough to be specious. Then these same groups proposed their Final Solution, the “Great Reset”, a Chinese Communist Party style dictatorship, a centrally-controlled economy where we live like poor slaves, lorded over by our wealthy political masters.
The tragic reality is that the twin frauds of Climate-and-Covid have been accepted by most politicians. Some have covertly or overtly embraced extreme-left politics, and others are so simple-minded and gullible that they believe any falsehood that is repeated often enough. We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
THE GREENS’ PREDICTIVE CLIMATE AND ENERGY RECORD IS THE WORST
The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Climate doomsters have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction, of the ~80 they have made since 1970, has FAILED TO HAPPEN.
“Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50:50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid. But no sensible person makes a 50:50 prediction – at 60:40 the odds against being this wrong are 1 in 13 quintillion; at 70:30 the odds against being this wrong are 1 in 13 septillion.
These climate doomsters have not been telling the truth – they displayed a dishonest bias in their analyses that caused these extremely improbable falsehoods, these frauds.
The global warming alarmists have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – they have been 100 percent wrong about every scary climate prediction – so nobody should continue to believe them.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this wrong for this long – they have followed a corrupt agenda – in fact, they knew from the beginning of their catastrophic global warming narrative that they were lying.
The radical greens have NO credibility, make that NEGATIVE credibility – their core competence is propaganda, the fabrication of false alarm.
The alleged global warming crisis is a decades-old scam that is past its due date – as global cooling happens and people freeze, even the most obtuse warmists will realize they have been conned. The extreme-left needed a new global-scale scam, and that new global scam is Covid-19.
THE COVID-19 FRAUD
THE COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS WERE UNJUSTIFIED AND ENORMOUSLY HARMFUL – MARCH 2020
My comments – published March 21&22, 2020
There were no Excess Deaths (aka “Death Spike”) and no significant deadly Covid-19 “epidemic” in Alberta or Canada to mid-2020. Hospitals were emptied to make room for a “tsunami of Covid cases” THAT NEVER ARRIVED. Good quality data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship and elsewhere proved that Covid-19 was only fatal to a very small percentage of the very elderly and infirm, and young people were often asymptomatic. Thus there was no justification for the panic, the lockdowns of the workforce and students, and the destruction of our economies – just as I correctly published ~2 years ago, on March 21&22, 2020:
All we really needed to do was over-protect the very elderly and infirm – the high-risk population – which we failed to adequately do. What a debacle! The evidence of serious criminal activity is overwhelming.
Sweden did not lockdown its population and destroy its economy, and had equal or better Covid-19 outcomes compared to many countries that did lockdown.
There was NO increase in All-Cause Total Deaths above previous years’ trends in Alberta and Canada to mid-year 2020! No increase in Total Deaths means no real pandemic – just another flu year in terms of vital statistics.
The Great Barrington Declaration, published by eminent medical experts six months later on October 5, 2020, stated essentially the same conclusion as my March 21&22, 2020 publications.
This 32-minute video by the three originators of the Great Barrington Declaration explains their position – the first ~ten minutes summarizes their recommendations.
This is taken from a long document. Read the rest here: correctpredictions.ca
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Now they will be even stronger, and their word will be heard even further.
Mass mobilization of green jihadists is underway!
https://twitter.com/thenetcoGTIU/status/1504397548936642561
https://twitter.com/Global_Demands/status/1504039330385436673
“to solve the problems of Covid-19 and climate change, we also need to solve the problem with green gender feminist”
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Tom
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All of these predictions are made using computer modeling or algorithms. The problem is, they are created (programmed) by man and easily made to present the desired results, not what the data present. The data can be manipulated very easily to fit the agenda. We have seen it time and time again…the predictions are made and they very seldom come anywhere close to being a reality.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers.
“The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.”
Do you agree with this statement? Do you understand why someone wrote this statement?
If you answered NO to both of these questions, I consider you don’t understand what this human activity, termed SCIENCE, is.
For I have read that some SCIENTISTS, with recognized achievements, have written that a SCIENTIFIC IDEA, without a prediction of something not yet seen (recognized), might be someone’s original idea but not a SCIENTIFIC IDEA if there is no PREDICTION. For such an IDEA does not move our knowledge Forward. That an IDEA without a prediction is only acknowledging what we already have seen (know). Ponder this because the first statement of this article is the ‘theme’ of this author’s essay.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Emily,
My life has always been about what productive things I could do other than make money.
Solomon (a considered wise man) stated: “A man [or woman] can do nothing better than to eat and drink and find satisfaction in his [her] work. This too, I see, is from the hand of God, for without [Him], who can eat or find enjoyment. To the man [woman] who pleases him God gives wisdom, knowledge, and happiness, but to the sinner he gives the task of gathering and storing up wealth to hand it over to the one who pleases God.” (Ecclesiastes 2:24-26a NIV)
Have a good day, Jerry
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Jerry:
Back in the time of the Law Of Moses, God used many different people to accomplish his objectives. Sol and David both being far from ideal role models. I am especially suspicious of Solomon. God gave him wisdom in some ways but what about the 700 wives and 300 concubines? Even the Emir of Kuwait had only 89. I think Soloman may have even a sex maniac. For his sins, God divided the Kingdom into Israel and Judah. The glory days of Empire were over.
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THOMAS W ADAMS
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Yes indeed, but there is, or can be, any manipulation of historical facts; here is the cold hard truth about Earth climate:
For about the last one thousand years, the Earth, in it’s great celestial orbit, has been in the location where an Ice Age has always occurred. To have an Ice Age, two essential factors are required, lots of water and very cold temperatures. The Earth has been producing an abundant supply of rain and flooding and unseasonable snow and cold periods for a while now. We humans can have no effect on this process, all we can do is locate ourselves into those areas of Earth where, it is thought, our climate will still support Human existence. When this realisation finally sets in, there will be mass migrations beyond all possible imaginations. Coming, ready or not!
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Adams: But what causes the very cold temperatures? I was of the opinion and Herb agreed (and described conditions) that the varying amounts of energy radiating from the sun was the main factor affecting long rang temperature (climactic) conditions with an additional factor being the very slight but elliptical orbit of the earth getting off course (by ap. 1%) for a period of years, causing the accumulation of ice. They have been measuring sea levels in Stockholm for over 500 years and there is very little difference now than at the beginning, so I don’t think it is a problem of more rain but just more freezing of what is already here.
I believe one reason the Club of Rome parasitic elites were pushing the fake climate change (formerly global warming) was because they knew the world would soon go into another moderate cooling phase, which we are in now. But the cycle indicates not near as cold as the little ice age of 1000 AD. This is unfortunate because the warmer average temperatures are much more favorable not only for plants, including crops but also for humans.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Thomas.
“To have an Ice Age, two essential factors are required, lots of water and very cold temperatures.” Where did you read this? Or what is your reasoning?
Have a good day, Jerry
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