Panic in UK As Data Shows Infection Rates Higher in the Vaccinated
The Prime Minister may have acknowledged reality and stated that being double vaccinated “doesn’t protect you against catching the disease, and it doesn’t protect you against passing it on” but others appear to remain in denial.
On Sunday I asked whether now that the PM had let the cat out of the bag the media would start reporting properly on the UKHSA data showing higher infection rates in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. It appears the answer is no, at least if the Times‘s Tom Whipple is any indication.
In a typically mean-spirited piece – in which anyone who doesn’t agree with his favoured scientist of the hour is smeared as a conspiracy theorist and purveyor of misinformation – Whipple quotes Cambridge statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter, who heaps opprobrium on the U.K. Health Security Agency (the successor to PHE) for daring to publish data that contradicts the official vaccine narrative.
Spiegelhalter says of the UKHSA vaccine surveillance reports:
This presentation of statistics is deeply untrustworthy and completely unacceptable… I cannot believe that UKHSA is putting out graphics showing higher infection rates in vaccinated than unvaccinated groups, when this is simply an artefact due to using clearly inappropriate estimates of the population. This has been repeatedly pointed out to them, and yet they continue to provide material for conspiracy theorists around the world.
This is the graphic he is presumably referring to.
If Professor Spiegelhalter has a source for his claim that higher infection rates in the vaccinated are “simply an artefact” of erroneous population estimates then he doesn’t provide it.
Whipple says the data has been “seized upon around the world”.
The numbers have been promoted by members of HART, a U.K. group that publishes vaccine misinformation. They have also been quoted on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast in the US, which reaches 11 million people.
Appearing on that podcast, Alex Berenson, a U.S. journalist now banned from Twitter, specifically referenced the source to show it was reliable.
The UKHSA is adamant that it is doing nothing wrong. The Times quotes Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at the UKHSA, explaining: “Immunisation information systems like NIMS are the internationally recognised gold standard for measuring vaccine uptake.”
So Professor Spiegelhalter thinks that the gold standard gives “clearly inappropriate estimates of the population”, and using it is “deeply untrustworthy and completely unacceptable”? That may be his view, but the UKHSA can hardly be criticised for following the recognised standards for its work.
A more measured criticism is provided by Colin Angus, a statistician from the University of Sheffield, who the Times quotes saying that using NIMS data makes sense but the “huge uncertainty” in the population estimates should be clearer.
Whipple, however, goes further and claims that “using population data from other official sources shows, instead, shows that the protection of vaccines continues”. Yet he does not provide those sources or go into any detail about how they back up his claim.
For now, the UKHSA is defending its report (we’ll see how long it holds out for). But even so, Dr Ramsay is adamant that the report rules out using the data to estimate vaccine effectiveness:
“The report clearly explains that the vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpreting this data because of differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.”
This defence somewhat misses Professor Spiegelhalter’s criticism about population estimates. But it’s also misleading in that the report doesn’t “clearly” explain that its data “should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness”.
What it says is it is “not the most appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpretation”.
But, as explained before, using population-based data on infection rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated is certainly a valid method of estimating unadjusted vaccine effectiveness, which is defined as the reduced infection rate in the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated.
While a complete study would then adjust those raw figures for potential systemic biases (with varying degrees of success), we shouldn’t necessarily expect those adjustments to be large or change the picture radically.
Indeed, when a population-based study from California (which showed vaccine effectiveness against infection declining fast), carried out these adjustments the figures barely changed at all.
The UKHSA report adds: “Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described earlier in this report.” In fact, though, most of those estimates are reported as low confidence (see below), which means: “Little evidence is available at present and results are inconclusive.”
While it claims high confidence for its estimates against symptomatic disease, a footnote explains that this only holds for 12-16 weeks:
“This typically applies for at least the first three to four months after vaccination. For some outcomes there may be waning of effectiveness beyond this point.”
It is precisely this “waning of effectiveness” that the latest real-world data is giving us insight into.
Rather than trying to discredit that data and those who report it by throwing around general, unquantified criticisms, scientists and academics like Professor Spiegelhalter should be redoubling efforts to provide constructive analysis to get to the bottom of what’s really going on with the vaccines.
If there are issues with the population estimates then those need to be looked at, and if there are biases that need adjusting for then those need to be quantified.
But do, please, get on with it – and lay off the smearing of those who raise the questions.
See more here: dailysceptic.org
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MattH
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Israeli Scientists showed Pfizer second jab efficacy dropped to 39% 6 months after the second jab.
Pfizer scientists showed 47% efficacy under the same parameters. I am uncertain whether these scientists had previously worked for tobacco companies.
Peer reviewed Israeli science suggests the booster shot gives tenfold improvement in protection. I let the reader do the sums. Report on booster as follows.
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/third-covid-shot-boosts-immunity-tenfold-israeli-study-now-peer-reviewed-679591
I went to a Doctor to get an ivermectin script this week’ Doctor was happy to do it until he read a directive and he then stated he would have to tell lies to write a script for ivermectin. I can not blame the young New Zealand doctor for wanting to protect his career. But his integrity is now conflicted.
It is near time to rise up.
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very old white guy
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The young “doctor” has no integrity.
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MattH
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Hi Whitey.
I may print off my comment and your reply and leave it on the Doctors desk. Probably include some references to zinc fingers regulation of genes and vitamin D regulation of natural immunity.
Cheers Matt
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very old white guy
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The vaxxes , boosters , none of it works, the lies are getting harder to hide behind.
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Madness
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“The report clearly explains that the vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpreting this data because of differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.”
If the report should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness then what is it for?
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Richard Noakes
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XXXXXI picked up a dose of a viral infection the day before yesterday, it might have been when I was out shopping or at the doctor’s surgery – I have NOT had the vaccine and won’t if I can avoid it “here”
I had the peppery feeling in my nose, which usually suggests a cold, so I did my salt water sniffle, which I repeat below, and had a slight reaction to the salt, so I did my salt water treatment again, straight afterwards and this time I had a strong reaction to the salt, from my left nostril right up into my hair line – I would describe it best if I could have split my head in two equal halves, the left half was the sore side, in my brain and to the top of my skull the right half was clear – I have NEVER had that experience previously with my salt water sniffle.
I left the salt in my head for another couple of hours and I had a slight head-achy feel at the top part of my head, which another salt water cure erased and afterwards I blew out my nose and flushed away, washing my hands afterwards.
This morning I had my salt water sniffle and no reaction at all to it, which means I had cleared the viral infection and just to be sure I had another salt water sniffle a couple of hours ago and still OK, so I have passed the virus – killed it dead in my head and of course I won’t get Covid anything – bearing in mind that the virus could have been for any viral illness, Alzheimers, Chicken Pox, Legionnaires Disease, The Flu or Coronavirus relating to Covid or just about anything – have to see if any “new” viral infection is reported locally over the next few days or so.
My point being that if you think you have even the slightest reason to think you have picked up a viral infection, do my free salt water cure and stay healthy and safe, because this works and why I never get sick from viruses these past 27 years and I never have vaccines for Flu or Coronavirus type illnesses – because I remain well and am never ill, so what is the point?
The assumption is that the only way to deal with Covid, is after it arrives as Covid in your body, after the initial cold infection, in your head, some 20 days earlier
.Why is that?
Kill the Flu or Coronavirus in the head, soon after getting the virus in the nasal passages inside the head, the brain bulb and brain stem, etc, with my free salt water cure, which flushes out the nasal passages (so no Long Covid) and kills off the Coronavirus infection, immediately, or during the 10 to 14 days of self isolation.
No infection in the head, no Covid – it is as simple as that.
Then the purpose and functions of the vaccines, ceases to be a problem and you simply can’t get sick and won’t ever get Covid.
Mix one heaped teaspoon of “iodine” table or sea salt in a mug of warm or cold “clean” water, cup a hand and pour some of the solution in, then sniff or snort that mugful up into your nose, spitting out everything which comes down into your mouth, from the back of your throat, by so doing, you flush out your nasal cavity, where Coronavirus lives.
If you get a burning sensation (which lasts for 2-3 minutes) then you have a Coronavirus infection.
When the soreness goes away, blow out your head with toilet paper and flush away, washing your hands afterwards and continue doing my salt clean water nasal cavity flush cure, morning, noon and night, or more often, if you want, until, when you do my free salt water cure, you don’t experience any soreness at all in your nasal cavity inside your head.
While you are at it, swallow a couple of mouthfuls and if you get a burning sensation in your chest, then you are killing the Covid/Pneumonia there too, so keep it up, each time you do a salt water sniffle, until the soreness in your head and lungs goes away – job done.
When you flush your head with the salt water remedy, it should feel like you are flushing your head with water – no reaction felt at all.
I have been doing this for 27 years and I am never ill from viruses and there is no reason for anyone else to be either and of course, I never have vaccines – what is the point?
You don’t need to be tested to see if you have a head infection, you will know instantly if you have or not, with my free salt water cure
We will need a cure for Coronavirus or the Flu, which everyone will get sooner or later and this is it – my Covid Crusher.
Pass it around to everyone and take credit for it yourself, if you want.
Richard.
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rickk
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When you start catching flak then you know you’re over the target…
Statements without evidentiary support but merely ad hominem attacks – you know you’re over the target…
P on my leg and tell me it’s raining…
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