Global temperatures have flatlined for the last 16 years. Increased public dissatisfaction with what is seen as junk climate science has put policymakers very much on the spot.

For the last six months Judy Ryan (a retired Epidemiologist) and Marjorie Curtis (a retired Geologist) have been engaged in a public letter writing campaign against prominent scientific climate alarmists, in Australia. The strategy is working.

Now, with the Federal election a week away Judy and Marjory have lodged a formal complaint to the Ombudsman against the Department of Climate Change and the Climate Commission. Over one hundred media outlets, opposition politicians and University student newspapers are openly copied in, so that it is on the public record.

Judy and Marjorie say they will keep applying pressure for a full investigatation of their formal complaint with the Ombudsman, and they have another formal complaint in the pipeline.  Below we are delighted to publish a full copy of their latest correspondence in the matter.

On January 1st 1989 the nations of the world took action, via the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, to eliminate the production of certain atmospheric pollutants; the man-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC’s), because they caused ozone depletion in the stratosphere. This depletion allows excessive ultraviolet-B (UV-B) from the Sun to reach the Earth’s surface where it increases the risk of skin cancer, cataracts, and suppresses the immune system for humans and also damages other life forms.

The action of ozone is to absorb the radiance from the Sun across a number of different frequency bands including the damaging UV-B band. An extensive database of the infrared absorption spectra for gases is maintained on the HITRAN Web site by the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA, USA, in conjunction with the V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics, Tomsk, Russia. It includes the absorption spectra for water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the halocarbons which the UN’s Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated are, in order of importance, the main ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere.

While we have been told that ‘greenhouse gases’ are a cause of dangerous surface global warming, climate scientists have failed to tell us that they also absorbs radiation from the Sun in the upper atmosphere thereby protecting the Earth in a similar fashion to the protection given by ozone.For the case of absorption by CO2, the most prominent spectral line is at a wavelength of 4.3 microns.

Applying Planck’s Law this gives us a spectral radiance of no more than 0.73 Watts per (steradian metre squared) per micron. This is for an Earth emitting at a temperature of 288 degrees Kelvin, dependent on the emissivity at the time. For the incoming Sun’s spectral radiance at the Earth’s orbit, the figure is 2.24 W/(sr m^2)/micron for a Sun temperature of 5780 degrees Kelvin.

These numbers mean that at least THREE TIMES as much heat is radiated back into space by CO2 in the upper atmosphere as is ‘back-radiated’ to the Earth’s surface at this wavelength.

Clearly, absorption and re-radiation of the sunshine in the upper atmosphere at this wavelength cools the Earth and is going to cause additional cooling as the concentration of CO2 increases.

Temperatures on the moon are very hot in the daytime, about 100 degrees C. At night, the lunar surface gets very cold, as cold as minus 173 degrees C. This wide variation is because Earth’s moon has no atmosphere to hold in heat at night or prevent the surface from getting so hot during the day.

A single “day” on the moon lasts about 28 Earth days, meaning the lunar daytime is nearly two Earth weeks long.

Today (August 27th 2013), the hottest place on Earth is Palm Springs, where some dear friends of mine are living – I trust. The temperature has reached 134° Fahrenheit, which corresponds to 56.67°Centigrade. This is reckoned to be an all time record.

Just imagine then living on the Moon, where the daytime temperature can reach 123C and the nighttime will drop to MINUS 153C. 123C is more than twice as hot as our hottest day recorded.

On the question of temperature I would like to quote an email that I received from atmospheric physicist, James A. Peden, 4.12.2011: –

“Temperature” is based on a measure of the energy of molecular motion… and indeed,

the temperature at the edge of our atmosphere is quite “hot” … because the molecules,

albeit few in number, have a high kinetic energy … thus technically have a high “temperature”.

However, there are very few of them. Therefore the “heat content” is very small….

resulting in very few calories per unit volume. At sea level, there is a pretty good

correlation between temperature and heat content: a kettle of boiling water has both a

high temperature and high heat content.

But at the edge of space, with very few molecules per unit volume, you have the

seemingly paradoxical condition of both high temperature and low heat content.

This week Christine Metcalfe, 69, a Scottish community councillor, scored a stunning landmark legal victory bringing to a halt the UK government’s unlawful and unpopular wind energy initiative. In effect, all British wind farm development is mothballed until grassroots public consent is granted – if ever.

Below Christine provides her personal insights on this extraordinary long running battle in which Britain and the EU were ruled to have breached citizens’ rights, protected under the UN’s Aarhus Convention.

A personal view on the Aarhus Convention Compliance Committee’s draft decision on Complaint Ref. ACCC/C/2012/68

By Christine Metcalfe

Initially, like millions of others, I believed the claims made relating to wind power technology. I wanted to. It seemed to wipe away the perceived problem of climate change by using a free source of energy!

I also cherished the belief that in an open democratic and Europeanised society policies and public participation in decision making were open, rational and defensible. So I have some sympathy with those who have yet to appreciate that both the UK and the EU created immense and powerful mechanisms for counteracting climate change without the open scrutiny, intellectual accountability and checks and balances which lie at the heart of the Aarhus Convention, and which at our peril we take for granted.

So the independent Committee’s Ruling will be extremely valuable in highlighting issues that must be rectified in the public interest. But despite the subject matter it is not just about renewable energy policy or fixes for climate change: its principally about practice, participation and transparency. It shows that it is not merely possible, but imperative that our authorities are held to account not only by experts, but by ordinary citizens at the ‘grass roots’ of society.

The complaint – stemming from local injustices in a far-flung corner of Argyll, but driven by seemingly unassailable EU-wide policies with an ostensible global rationale – has enabled exposure of an increasing disconnect between authorities. They have become politicised and committed to the current orthodoxy, despite increasing scientific and technical evidence to the contrary. It is the very lack of open-ness, scrutiny and accountability that has allowed this to go so far that it is in danger of becoming immutable and those who challenge it branded as heretics rather than democrats.

The informed public must now be more willing and able to deploy the Committee’s Ruling whenever the need arises. This is especially true now that the tentacles of political will are using government organisations to further their aims.

“The rain in Spain …. stays mainly in the plain” sings Eliza Doolittle in the theme song of My Fair Lady. But not just in Spain, also in Australia.

A new study to be published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says the massive rainfalls in Australia in 2011 and 2012 caused a global sea level decrease of 7 mm (about 1/3 inch).

Ocean Water Levels

The water level in the world’s oceans had been rising steadily over quite some time. Ever since the last ice age’s great ice masses in the northern hemisphere started to melt in earnest, some 15,000 years ago, all that melt-water flowed into the oceans and resulted in a rapid rise of 100+ m. Beginning some 7,000 years ago, most of the ice had melted and the ocean level rise slowed to a trickle. Over the last 200 years it rose less than 30 cm. Claims of a renewed acceleration of sea level rise have largely been shown to be false.

Apart from lack of (additional) melt water, water was then being retained on the continents in form of lakes, rivers and continental aquifers, as well as in the atmosphere. A new (near) equilibrium had been reached, as evident from the graph following (source: Wikipedia).

 While the postglacial sea level rise not only has significantly slowed compared to the 10,000-year period immediately preceding it, some areas are actually experiencing the opposite, namely a decline of sea levels due to isostatic rebound.

“If all other things remain equal, it’s clear that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere will warm the planet,” she told the committee.

This is Professor Judith Curry speaking to a committee in the House of Representatives in the USA.

Curry certainly has the credentials. She is a professor and chairwoman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. She also runs a side business as a private weather forecaster. But she doesn’t deny the basic principles of climate change.

“If all other things remain equal, it’s clear that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere will warm the planet,” she told the committee.

Sorry, Professor Judith, it is not at all clear, not by any means.

If all what other things remain equal?

In the topography of the Earth and Oceans nothing could be more unequal and uneven. And as for the atmosphere it is a constant flux of varying barometric pressures, of clouds and clear skies, of winds, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis, of dry savannahs and impenetrable swamps. Nowhere on the earth or in the atmosphere is there anything that is remotely equal. Inequality rules both the day and the night.

2,000+ years old and counting, the giant redwood trees (Sequoiadendron giganteum) in California are having a great time – they are growing faster than ever before. A new study by UC Berkeley and Humboldt State University researchers finds them in a growth spurt that began about 100 years ago and began to accelerate in recent decades. 

California’s redwood trees are among the oldest living organisms on earth. Some are over 3,000 years old and still going strong. So what’s the cause of their recent growth spurt?

Tree Food

Apart from a beneficial climate, trees grow when they have an adequate supply of three vital nutrients: (i) water, (ii) soil minerals and – you may be surprised to learn – (iii) carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Without plenty of each of these any tree will wilt or die.

With sufficient supplies of the first two key ingredients, depending on its location on earth, any kind of tree will grow at a rate determined by its ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and convert the sun’s radiation via the photosynthesis process to wood. The higher the level of CO2 in the air, the faster it will grow.

Carbon Dioxide

The dependence of tree growth on CO2 is well known to commercial enterprises growing tree saplings for reforestation in old mine shafts and similar facilities. The operators typically boost the CO2-level in the air from the current 400 ppm (parts per million) to 1,000 ppm and above. That’s still only half the CO2 concentration commonly found in submarines.

There is plenty of scientific evidence that such an increase in atmospheric CO2 increases the rate of growth of tree saplings; P. Driessen recently called it the “gas of life.” Why should it be any different for old-growth California redwoods?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) never followed the scientific method. They inferred the hypothesis that an increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities would inevitably cause a rise in global temperature. They set out to prove this when they should have tried to disprove it in what Popper calls “falsification.” Over at least the last 15 years global temperature has leveled and declined while CO2 levels continue to increase. What is actually happening is in contradiction to their hypothesis and essentially impossible according to the conclusion in their 2007 Report.

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica).

Despite this on 16 Aug Reuters news agency reported:

“Drafts seen by Reuters of the study by the U.N. panel of experts, due to be published next month, say it is at least 95 percent likely that human activities – chiefly the burning of fossil fuels – are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.”

They’re talking about a change in the next Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or Assessment Report 5. (AR5). It is significant because it is an increase from the 2007 Fourth Report (FAR) when they were >90 {154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} certain.

If accurate, this claim is made in the face of evidence that their hypothesis is wrong. Perhaps it is explained by the recent comment by a leading member of the IPCC. He effectively said, failed proof of the hypothesis doesn’t matter because,

“Proof is for mathematical theorems and alcoholic beverages. It’s not for science.”

I received a question about how the 168 W/m2 solar input from the IPCC energy diagram (last post) can be converted into a temperature.  Here is my reply plus some further elaboration:

_______________

Radiation Wattage can be converted directly into a temperature via the Stefan-Boltzmann Law:

F = sigma*T4

where F is the radiant wattage, sigma is a physical constant (Stefan-Boltzmann constant) equal to 5.67×10-8, and T is temperature.

So, solve for T:

T = fourth_root(F/sigma).

The IPCC lists the wattage from the Sun as 168 W/m2 (this is actually a wattage flux, or energy flux density, a wattage flowing through a square meter, i.e. Joules per second per square meter).

Then you get T = fourth_root(168/5.67×10-8) = 233K = -40C, which is the temperature that the radiation would induce in matter on the surface when absorbed.  Sunshine induces a heck of a lot higher than -40C…up to 121C (250F) actually.  See the figure below for my own diagram which lists the REAL energy flux values and related temperatures from the Sun/Earth etc.

They’re so blatant about how wrong their diagram is, that they list the atmosphere providing almost twice the amount of power than the Sun does.  324 from backradiation over 168 from the Sun = 192{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}.  The atmosphere, without being an actual source of energy because there’s no actual chemical, nuclear, or any release of energy going on in the atmosphere, miraculously provides twice the heat of the Sun.  So, I guess when we feel warm sunshine and cool air, we have it backwards?  It is the Sun that feels cool and the air that feels warm…on one side of your body…the side that’s facing the Sun…errr…

So, looking at the IPCC energy numbers, yes indeed there is a problem.  Energy is being invented from nowhere, numbers are just being made up, and then they say that it’s from the atmosphere and greenhouse gases.

Living organisms are dependent on a whole series of chemical reactions whose rate is dependent on temperature. To maintain life, the whole organism must be surrounded by an environment which keeps  the temperature of the organism within the limits necessary for its continuity. The environment must also make possible the provision of the necessary inputs  such as food and  shelter and the disposal of outputs.

The first five levels of the environment are essential for the maintenance of human settlement. The sixth is only required for recreation and exploration . Yet it is the only level that is promoted by “Environmentalists” They are hardly interested at all in the first five levels which are the only really important ones for human progress.

“Protection”  of this sixth level is heavily dependent on the effectiveness and efficiency of the first five: on the expenditure which is left after its essential maintenance .

Environmentalists”  display extreme concern for the non human organisms of the sixth level, but this interest is grossly uneven. Large easily visible organisms are regarded as important whereas small invisible organisms are neglected. This lack of balance prevents effective “protection” of any of them.

At the moment, it looks like an El Nino will make a comeback by the time winter starts. We are in the neutral zone at the moment, but moving in the direction of a weak El Nino for most of this upcoming winter.

If that turns out to be true as we expect, the winter of 2013-2014 in the Southeast U.S. will prove to be much worse than last winter in terms of snow and cold. The southeast received almost no snow last winter with one or two below-normal temperature days at best. This winter I’m sure will prove to be much different.

In addition to the weak El Nino, we expect to see a much more negative NAO. This will provide many opportunities for snow as low pressure will tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico along several stalled Arctic fronts that move down from Canada over the course of the Southeast Winter. That will produce a much more winter weather-type pattern than we haven’t seen in many years. A negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will open the door for Arctic Cold air to areas east of the Mississippi. As this cold heavy Arctic air moves down into the southeast and the weak El Nino provides Gulf storms that will move up the east coast, we will have a near perfect set-up this winter for more snow in the southeast than seen in many years. Perhaps you would have to go back in time to the 60′s and 70′s to see this type pattern.

Dr. Gary Novak and Dr. Pierre Latour present opposing views on fusion energy and supposed errors and misunderstandings in the physics. Herein we provide readers with the email exchange for edification and further open discussion.

Dr. Novak’s opening remarks:

Physicists totally expected to succeed with a nuclear fusion project using lasers, but the results did not produce a significant amount of energy, and the project is being cut back due to failure, as indicated in this National Geographic article: ‘Fusion Energy Quest Faces Boundaries of Budget‘ (Science, July 26, 2013).

As the article indicates, physicists based their energy assumptions on Einstein’s equation, E=mc². A scientific origin for the equation does not exist. It came off the top of Einstein’s head. Einstein paralleled the equation for kinetic energy, KE=½mv². I show simple and unquestionable mathematical proof that the equation for kinetic energy is in error. Velocity should not be squared. Real kinetic energy is simply momentum, mv. Momentum transforms into other forms of energy with conservation, while ½mv² does not. Shown here: http://nov79.com/en/ener.html

In other words, Einstein paralleled an erroneous equation. To parallel the correct equation, he should have said, E=mc. There is a huge difference in the end result when the velocity of light is squared compared to non-squared.What this means is physicists expect a lot more energy from fusion (or disintegration of matter) than is really possible. Why didn’t this false expectation show up with nuclear fission reactions?

How The “Hottest” Temperature Game Is Played To Offset Prediction Failures

Global temperature is not doing what the “official” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted. Proponents of the claim humans are the cause of warming and the cooperative media react by trying to deflect, divert and perpetuate fear. They exploit people’s lack of knowledge and understanding. A January 2013 ABC News headline said, “2012 Was 9th Warmest Year on Record, Says NASA” is a classic example of how the public are deliberately misled. It is deliberate because it distorts, is out of context, and exploits manipulation of statistics or as Disraeli summarized, “Lies, damn lies and statistics.”

The deception begins with the headline but is expanded in the article. The challenge is to know what is actually being said. Initially, you need a translator, but can develop sufficient propaganda detectors once the methods are identified. There are guidelines that work in most circumstances:

Don’t believe anything you read; Question everything; Be especially suspicious of numbers; Know the source and political bias; If you’re affected by the story get at least three other sources; Remember all government information and data is biased; Be especially wary of stories that cite authorities.

“The new oligarchy must increasingly rely on the advice of scientists until in the end the politicians become merely the scientists’ puppets.”

– C. S. Lewis, “Willing Slaves of the Welfare State” (1958)

Legendary scholar, writer and Christian apologist C.S. Lewis (1898-1963) more than a half century ago, warned about how science (a good thing) could be systematically perverted to attack religion, deconstruct law and destroy human freedom (a bad thing). In this essential documentary, “The Magician’s Twin: C.S. Lewis and the Case Against Scientism,” noted scholars analyze Lewis’ prophetic warnings about the political corruption of science (scientism) or the efforts to use the scientific method to explain, control, enslave every part of human life and how Lewis’ predictions are essential for us today.

Historically, the first half of the 20th century was defined by almost incessant wars and the rise of fascist dictators who in less than 50 years caused more genocide than the history of mankind up to 1900. Nevertheless, we were warned by three prophetic writers about the evil side of unbridled scientific and utopian technological progress: 1) G.K. Chesterton, “Eugenics and other evils”; 2) George Orwell, “1984″; and 3) C.S. Lewis’ “Abolition of Man.” C.S. Lewis possessed a passionate interest in the emergent power of scientism – the fascist technique of perverting the methods of science to define, manipulate and dominate every aspect of human existence.

Lewis wasn’t anti-science in the least. He never denied science; he actually studied it on a serious level and thus believed that science was a perfectly authentic discipline of knowledge. However, Lewis strongly disagreed with the politicization of science (ideology) and then using the false idol of scientism as a cudgel to smash religion, Christianity, capitalism, intelligent design and any philosophical worldview whose aims differed from true “science.” Echoing Darwin’s evolution atheism, this materialistic worldview demanded that all scientific knowledge be reduced to materialistic, blind, undirected causes.

Wikipedia shows that the curious term used by Mike Hulme, who argues Global Warming can only be met by something called “post-normal” science has a history of use in the environmental movement since the late 1980s and early 90s. I have interspersed the Wikipedia entry describing the term with my own commentary.

So-called “renewable energy” is not clean, renewable, reliable, affordable or sustainable.

“Renewable energy” is a sexy term used to drive public policies and spending. Misguided governments and like-minded Greens have said repeatedly that they are waging a “war on coal,” intend to bankrupt coal-based power plants, and delay or block oil, natural gas and nuclear projects – while fast-tracking and subsidizing ethanol, wind and solar programs. These are the so-called “clean” energy choices but are no such thing.

Nonetheless, many are swayed by the hype. They insist compelling and subsidizing increased renewable energy use, while undermining and even outlawing conventional energy, is the way to economic growth and energy independence. But critics argue this is a reckless scheme that could easily cause the collapse of our energy grid, job creation, economy and living standards, just as it is already doing in Europe.

Too often the term “renewable” confers an almost Holy Grail status that ensures widespread political, media, public and corporate support (for a lot of wrong reasons). That lofty status, however, ignores two fundamental facts:

1) Wind, solar and biofuel energy are not renewable, eco-friendly, reliable, affordable or sustainable.

2) Renewable energy schemes can no longer be justified by claims that we are rapidly running out of ‘fossil fuels’ or causing dangerous man-made global warming. Oil sands and hydraulic fracturing have obliterated the depletion myth, while climate change fears are belied by a 16-year hiatus from planetary warming, historic lows in hurricane and tornado activity, and the abject failure of CO2-focused climate computer models.

In other words, the craze for “renewables” may be shown to be driven by religious zeal, not science or economics.