It was only five years ago in December that Al Gore claimed that the polar ice caps would be completely melted by now. But he might be surprised to find out that Arctic ice coverage is up 50 percent this year from 2012 levels.

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2008.

The North Pole is still there, and growing. BBC News reports that data from Europe’s Cryosat spacecraft shows that Arctic sea ice coverage was nearly 9,000 cubic kilometers (2,100 cubic miles) by the end of this year’s melting season, up from about 6,000 cubic kilometers (1,400 cubic miles) during the same time last year.

This came as a shock to researchers who saw Arctic sea ice coverage shrink to a documented low in 2012. However, now sea ice coverage has expanded to reach the sixth record low, according to AFP.

The EPA’s highest-paid employee and a leading expert on climate change deserves to go to prison for at least 30 months for lying to his bosses and saying he was a CIA spy working in Pakistan so he could avoid doing his real job, say federal prosecutors.

Perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA) is the latest greenhouse gas scare (GHGS). The media and web sites like countercurrents.org  are full of statements like “PFTBA is 7,100 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the Earth” according to University of Toronto scientists who claim to have found an average of 0.18 parts per trillion of PFTBA in the Toronto air samples.

Enough to power patio heaters for the next few millennia

Images taken from the Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn have given the clearest pictures yet of the planet’s largest moon Titan and revealed vast seas of methane on the north pole that are more than 200 times larger than all the proven hydrocarbon reserves here on Earth.

In a recent article in the Guardian entitled, “How journals like Nature, Cell and Science are damaging science,” with a subtitle reading, “The incentives offered by top journals distort science, just as big bonuses distort banking,” Randy Schekman, one of the editors of eLife, starts out with a plaintive and humble “ I am a scientist.” With such a demure start, it might seem surprising that the article itself devolves immediately afterwards into a piece that has inspired incredulous ridicule in emails, on Twitter, and in the comments on the article — not because the initial statement is false, but because the very next statement is laughable given the author and the context:

Mine is a professional world that achieves great things for humanity. But it is disfigured by inappropriate incentives. The prevailing structures of personal reputation and career advancement mean the biggest rewards often follow the flashiest work, not the best. Those of us who follow these incentives are being entirely rational – I have followed them myself – but we do not always best serve our profession’s interests, let alone those of humanity and society.

Schekman shared in this year’s Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine, certainly one of the “biggest rewards” in science. (Commendably, he donated his prize money to his university.)

Luckily, when a prize-winner of Schekman’s caliber complains about the incentives in science, people sit up and take notice. Unfortunately for him, most responses were incredulous or derisive.

What is an appropriate and safe noise level for wind turbines? Well, based on the latest revelation from the wind industry itself, it appears that a stricter noise limit is long overdue. This is because the impacts on human health may be shown to be more serious than previously believed (or acknowledged!).

Principia Scientific International releases the latest on this in an email from acoustician, Mike Stigwood (below):

Wind Farm – Amplitude Modulation controls finally accepted at 3dB

Dear all, 

Recent research presented at three Planning Inquiries that were conducted in September, October and November (Starbold, Bryn Lleweln and Shipdham – decisions awaited)  have hopefully exposed the misconceived arguments made by the Industry’s acousticians’ which have successfully avoided controls over wind farm noise impact for many years.      

After more than 4 years of smoke screens, obfuscation and erroneous objections raising unrealistic concerns and placing barriers in the way of necessary controls over the wind farm noise called “Excess Amplitude Modulation”, industry acousticians have finally admitted a planning condition is ” necessary” and “reasonable”.

Excess AM is now shown to be neither rare nor only causing minor effects as claimed over the last few years, arguments that have successfully blocked planning controls leaving many communities exposed to serious noise impact.  Research by ourselves and the Japanese have exposed this as a common and serious problem. 

German scientists contend that two natural cycles will combine to lower global temperatures throughout the 21^stCentury.

The scientists show that there is an approximate 200-year solar cycle, supported by historical temperature data and proxy data from stalagmites in caves.  “The solar activity agrees well with the terrestrial climate. It clearly shows in particular all historic temperature minima.”

There is also an approximate 65-year cycle of the Atlantic/Pacific oscillation (AMO/PDO) which is well-established by multiple lines of observations.

The 200-year solar cycle has just passed its maximum and will decline during the 21^st Century.  It is at least in part responsible for the warming of the last decades of the 20^th Century. The AMO/PDO cycle is also beginning its cool phase and will reach a minimum in 2035.

The scientists say that “Non-periodic processes like a warming through the monotonic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere could cause at most 0.1°C to 0.2°C warming for a doubling of the CO2 content, as it is expected for 2100.”  This positive forcing will be overwhelmed by the stronger negative forcing of natural cycles.  They conclude that “the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the “little ice age” of 1870.” Read more here.  Below is a graph of historical temperatures and temperature predictions.

This work has been published in two papers:

H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C.O. Weiss: Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records, clim. past, 9, 447-452, 2013

F. Steinhilber and J. Beer, Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, Jour. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., Vol. 118, 1861-1867 (2013)

Heat Flow

The climate science greenhouse effect is a simulacrum.  It is not science, nor is everything that is based on it science.  All of climate alarm is a simulacrum, a fraud, and most of what could have been real climate science has been infected and ruined by it.  It uses the words of science to give itself the appearance of science, but it does not actually contain the essence of science, i.e. the method or wisdom or rationality of science.  See the last post for more detail on this.  What it is, is an attack on human existence.

Let’s cover some basics about calculating the temperature that heating from sunlight is able to generate on a surface absorbing solar energy.

The temperature T induced by sunlight on a cooler surface when in thermal equilibrium is given by

F = ε*σ*T4

where F is the absorbed (and then re-emitted when in equilibrium) flux.  The absorbed flux is the solar insolation, ‘I’, multiplied by the absorptivity, and absorptivity is 1 minus the albedo ‘α’.  So then

I*(1-α) = ε*σ*T4

and you can rearrange for T to get the temperature of the surface absorbing the insolation:

T = (I*(1-α)/ε/σ)1/4

This equation predicts surface temperatures exposed to sunlight very accurately, as shown in real greenhouses, black asphalt, beach sand, car interiors, spacecraft, etc.

Now, the equation

Q = A*σ*(Th4 – Tc4)

is for heat flow.  (‘A’ is the area here so that the units of heat are properly in Joules.)  Q is just the portion of the energy which is flowing as heat.  This is a different thing than what we just looked at.  Q is not the value of absorbed solar insolation, I*(1-a).  Q is not the solar insolation energy.  If it was, then you would have

I*(1-α) = A*σ*(Th4 – Tc4)

but that equation is nonsensical, because the terms don’t make sense given the preexisting context of solar insolation absorbed into a surface.  In the first place, the units on the left and right hand sides don’t even match!  And then, what is Th?

New data from ocean microbes in the Soledad basin off the coast of Baja, Calif., confirms a La Niña-like effect cooled surface waters 4,000 to 10,000 years ago.

Previous studies of one microbe species in sediment cores found cooler waters during this period of the Holocene, but scientists were not sure whether La Niña was at play, or more local effects like deeper waters welling to the surface were responsible.

Trade winds move warm waters from east to west over periodic cycles that occur over several years. La Niña – the cooling effect – brings cooler, drier weather to the United States. It is the opposite of warmer, wetter El Niño-induced seasons. In addition to these global effects, currents and local weather conditions also circulate deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, an upwelling that replenishes nutrient-depleted surface waters.

Adding data from two more microbial species — one a summer-loving variety and another that lives in deeper waters — researchers now confirm the La Niña cooling effect. Hannah Grist, a graduate student at the University of Colorado, Boulder, presented the new results at a poster Thursday morning at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting in San Francisco. 

Below is a letter from Drs Judy Ryan and Marjorie Curtis to Mr Mark Scott, the Managing Director of the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC). Up to 200 political, media and other interested, or possibly, concerned,  parties such as the BBC, are openly copied in. Mr Scott is the first member of the Australian  public to to be held accountable by public letter.

Judy and Marjorie have been holding prominent Catastrophic Anthropogenic  Global Warming (CAGW) alarmists such as David Karoly, Tim Flannery, Will Steffen and Lesley Hughes individually accountable for close to one year now. The letters and email lists are on Judy’s Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/judy.ryan.75457?fref=browse_search.  They will also be on the Galileo Movement Facebook page soon.

As many interested parties are openly copied in;  the  lack of response from the alarmist  does not look good on the public record. A legitimate question is:- Why don’t they respond with the evidence to support their  hypothesis? It should be easy. The case  for holding CAGW alarmists individually accountable is building.

Sunday, 15 December 2013

Mr. Mark Scott

Managing Director

Australian Broadcasting Corporation GPO Box 9994

Sydney NSW 2001

Dear Mr. Scott:

We are writing this public email to you to express our concern regarding the biased, inadequate, incorrect, and alarmist reporting by the ABC on the subject of ‘Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming’ (CAGW), or any other weather related event.

We notice that you were made aware of this matter on the 15th February 2013 by notice delivered by registered post from Mr. Malcolm Roberts http://www.conscious.com.au/docs/letters/ABC-ManagingDirector.pdf.

In that notice you were asked to ensure that unless you, as the managing director of the ABC, have empirical scientific evidence that damaging warming is caused by human emissions of CO2, the ABC should cease making direct or implied public claims that it is. You were also requested to retract past such claims and associated claims if you did not have the evidence to back them up. You were further requested to ensure that future ABC broadcasts on climate and the environment be objective, factual, balanced and correct.”

You did not respond to that notice or act upon any of the reasonable requests therein. Under your stewardship, the ABC has continued the policy of biased alarmist, reporting on CAGW. As the ABC chief executive receiving a handsome salary from the taxpayers you are the one person most responsible for ensuring that the ABC reports truthfully, factually and in accordance with the ABC Charter. 

The year 1981 was a big one in my business life. It was the year Paul Allen and I incorporated Microsoft in our home state of Washington.

As it turns out, 1981 also had big implications for my current work in health, development, and the environment. Right when Paul and I were pulling all-nighters to get ready for the release of the MS-DOS operating system for the brand new IBM-PC, two rival professors with radically divergent perspectives were sealing a bet that the Chronicle of Higher Education called “the scholarly wager of the decade.”

This bet is the subject of Yale history professor Paul Sabin’s new book. The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth’s Future provides surprising insights for anyone involved in addressing the world’s “wicked problems.” Most of all, it gave me new perspective on why so many big challenges get bogged down in political battles rather than being focused on problem-solving.

So what was the bet? University of Illinois economist Julian Simon challenged Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was and wager up to $1,000 on whether the prices of five different metals would rise or fall over the next decade. Ehrlich and Simon saw the price of metals as a proxy for whether the world was hurtling toward apocalyptic scarcity (Ehrlich’s position) or was on the verge of creating greater abundance (Simon’s).

We have to kill eagles in order to save them. That’s now the official policy of the U.S. Interior Department. On Friday, the agency announced that it would grant some wind-energy companies permits that will allow them to kill or injure bald and golden eagles for up to 30 years without penalty.

The move is an unprecedented gift to the wind-energy industry, which has been lobbying for the 30-year permit for several years. Shortly after the deal was announced, the wind-energy lobby issued a statement that would make George Orwell proud. An official with the American Wind Energy Association declared that this “is not a program to kill eagles.” It is, he claimed, “about conservation.”

Well then. We can now rest easy. Big Wind is saving eagles by getting permits to kill them.

Dozens of environmental groups, including the American Bird Conservancy, the Conservation Law Center, and the National Audubon Society, opposed the deal. Under the headline “Interior Dept. Rule Greenlights Eagle Slaughter at Wind Farms,” Audubon issued a statement calling it “a stunningly bad move” and quoting the group’s president and CEO, David Yarnold: “Instead of balancing the need for conservation and renewable energy, Interior wrote the wind industry a blank check.” He called it “outrageous” that “the government is sanctioning the killing of America’s symbol, the Bald Eagle.”

The cover story of the November 25, 2013 Canadian weekly magazineMacleans pictures self-appointed Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki. The caption reads,“Environmentalism Has Failed”“David Suzuki loses faith in the cause of his lifetime.”

Suzuki doesn’t realize he‘s the cause of the failure as a major player in the group who exploited environmentalism and climate for a political agenda. Initially most listened and tried to accommodate, but gradually the lies, deceptions and propaganda were exposed. The age of eco-bullying is ending. Typically Suzuki blamed others for the damage to the environment and climate but now he blames them for not listening to him. He forgets that when you point a finger at someone three are pointing back at you.

Environmentalism was what academics call a paradigm shift, which Thomas Kuhn defines as “a fundamental change in approach or underlying assumptions.” It was a necessary new paradigm. Everybody accepts the general notion it is foolish to soil your own nest and most were prepared to participate. Most were not sure what it entailed or how far it should go. Extremists grab all new paradigms for their agenda but then define the limits for the majority by pushing beyond the limits of the idea. Environmentalism and the subset climate are at that stage pushed there by extremists like Suzuki. Instead of admitting the science is wrong they double down and make increasingly extreme statements, just like the IPCC. It underscores the political rather than the scientific agenda. For example, Suzuki, apparently frustrated that politicians were not listening to his demands for action on climate change said they should be jailed.

Jan Zeman provides a telling appraisal applying official raw data of global surface temperatures to refute alarmist claims made in a recently trumpeted paper by Cowtan and Way. Authors’ claims of increased warming are controverted by compelling empirical evidence suggesting an emergent cooling trend instead.

Zeman’s analysis shows Cowtan and Way may have intentionally inserted a warming bias to fill a gap in data coverage of the tropical and polar regions. Principia Scientific International has pleasure in publishing Zeman’s damning full report below:

SIGNS OF COOLING

by Jan Zeman

Because there was a lot of publicity around the Cowtan and Way 2013 paper I decided to look into the issue, although, I note, it is not main concern of this article and it only makes suitable pretext to examine what is really going on with the global temperatures recently.

I was not much interested in their calculations and methods (since I’m not much interested in methods of data torture. Besides, they have already been scrutinized by much more knowledgeable people), but rather in the following questions:

Where did they obtain such data that would support a “two and a half times greater” rise of global temperature anomaly “trends starting in 1997 or 1998” in their “hybrid global reconstruction” when compared to the HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly data-set, what such data really show and whether such data agree with other data or not?

The main rationale of their analysis seems to me to be that there is some missing coverage for the HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly dataset “with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa” and that it is the alleged reason why the HadCRUT4 dataset outcomes are purportedly biased, allegedly showing less warming than there is in reality. The main result of their analysis widely publicized was the bold red global trend. Because of this, the first thing I looked for was whether there actually are other data covering the regions and what trends one can find there.

Tropics

For starters, let’s see a comparison of HadCRUT4 and satellite lower troposphere data for the tropics.

(Note that I chose trend period exactly October-October to avoid potential disputes about the seasonal variations and cherry-picking. The data and calculations are available here.)

What we immediately see on the graph is that the HadCRUT4 trend 1997-present for the tropics (30S-30N) is flat (but it is slightly rising for the whole globe ~0.046°C per decade). We also see that both the UAH (the dataset Cowtan and Way likely used for their “reanalysis“ of the HadCRUT4 dataset) and the RSS satellite records show a descending temperature trend in the 1997-present period for the tropics. The only satellite data which show a rising temperature trend in the tropics is the UAH lower troposphere-land.

Solar Flux is not Q

This was touched on in the last post, but the steel greenhouse deserves a full logical physics treatment of heat flow to explain what actually happens and why the radiative greenhouse effect believers have it wrong.

First I just want to repeat something.  The radiative heat flow equation

Q = A*σ(Th4 – Tc4)

does not stand for conservation of energy where Q is the solar energy, and the hot term is the Earth’s surface and the cool one the atmosphere.  Conservation of solar energy does not occur between the surface and the atmosphere.  Why would solar energy be conserved as a difference in flux, as a heat flow, between the surface and atmosphere?  This reinterpretation of the equation has no logical or physical basis.  Solar energy is conserved to the outside of the system, not inside between the surface and atmosphere.  I just don’t know why this reinterpretation of the heat flow equation would have been invented.  The hot and cool term represent sources of energy, and Q is the local difference between them resulting in heat flow; the solar heating has to be one of the sources, on the right hand side of the equation, because it is a source, and the energy from the Sun is not dependent upon the difference between two other arbitrary and undefined sources.

You see, one of the ways to create science sophistry, is to simply misinterpret or worse lie about what the physics equations mean.  It is as simple as that is all they have to do, is lie about what an equation means, because most people don’t have the physics training to be able to know what the equation actually means and what the terms actually refer to.