THE SCARE STORY is that global warming from human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is going to melt the glaciers of the world causing widespread ecological disasters. The unverifiable junk science claim is that they will continue to melt at an increasing rate and eventually vanish. For example in the paper “Climate Change in Relation to the Himalayas” by S.P.Singh [1], the author typifies an alarmist position and says…
“…rivers and adjoining grassland and forest ecosystems would be severely affected by the phase of rapid snow melt and subsequent phase of the absence of the snow melt water forever with the loss of glaciers.”
THE TRUTH is that glaciers will never melt back above the SNOWLINE due to that being the height at which atmospheric temperature becomes zero and thereby where water vapour freezes. According to a well-respected 1980’s paper (before the current fad for global warming alarmism) a well-respected peer-reviewed paper ‘Holocene Glacier Fluctuations’ by Gerald Osborn and P Thompson Davis portrays a completely different secenario (image right). Osborn and Thompson Davis found that glaciers reached their maximum extent about 400 years ago. They say that since then there has been ” General retreat of most glaciers continuing to the present day.”
This line varies but as a rule of thumb a glacier forms above the snowline and then advances down into above zero temperatures, the region where it can actually melt. How much could supposed human-caused CO2 global warming push this line up? The answer is it cannot to any measurable amount. Therefore there will be no “loss of glaciers” as alleged by “climate scientists.”
THE ASSUMPTION is that glacial retreat is unusual, unprecedented and occurring at a rate faster than has ever been seen before because of human factors. Research into the history of glaciers reveals a different picture. Glaciers have been advancing and retreating constantly for thousands of years. The most recent peak in length of glaciers being with the peak of the little ice age. A short three-page paper here to verify this: http://www.episodes.co.in/www/backissues/101/ARTICLES–26.pdf
Naturally after reaching a MAXIMUM size with the peak of the Little Ice Age the glaciers started retreating. The glacial retreat of some areas started well before human industrialization even began and carries on to the present day. NO human fingerprint is thus proven.
Editor’s Introduction: With another review of the Renewable Energy Target commencing we felt it was important to revisit the results of a modelling exercise assessing potential wind power grid integration technical issues undertaken by the Australian Energy Market Operator back in late 2013. This study attracted little attention but gave strikingly different answers to prior modelling exercises, suggesting greater grid integration costs for levels of wind consistent with achieving the Renewable Energy Target. While this study was fine for its purpose of helping AEMO to explore potential technical changes that might be required to manage high levels of wind penetration, it made simplifying assumptions that made it unsuitable for assessing the likely economic costs of achieving the Renewable Energy Target. To head off the potential for this study to be misinterpreted and misused in the forthcoming review of the Renewable Energy Target, we asked Jenny Riesz to provide this review of the report.
AEMO’s Wind Integration Studies report, released in late 2013, suggests that technical constraints and grid limitations could lead to the significant curtailment by 2020 of around 35 per cent of the wind energy generated in Victoria, and around 15 per cent of the wind energy generated in South Australia.
Have other studies failed to capture the impact of grid constraints that mean meeting the 41,000 GWh Renewable Energy Target will be much more expensive than we thought?