Trillions Spent, 13 UN climate conferences but CO2 Emissions at Record High

Written by Pierre L. Gosselin

Michael Krueger at German skeptic site Science Skeptical here writes that in 2015 global CO2 emissions reached another new all-time record high, despite all the elaborate climate conferences and hundreds of billions of dollars invested in curbing global “greenhouse gases”.

Krueger asks: What have all the climate conferences brought us since the first UN conference took place in Berlin in 1995?

Over the past 20 years global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have skyrocketed some 50%, from 22.2 billion tonnes per year to 33.5 billion tonnes in 2015. The 2015 figure was a new record high, defying the prognoses of experts who had expected to see a trend reversal by now.

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Study: Women using Twitter More Misogynistic than Men

Written by Harriet Agerholm

More than half of misogynistic posts by Twitter users in the UK and America are written by women, according to a new large-scale study. A report that analysed 19 million tweets over four years found three million posts including insults aimed at women. The users who had posted the insults were more likely to be female than male.

The research, conducted by social media monitoring company Brandwatch, found the people of Co Tyrone, in Northern Ireland and Methyr Tydfil, in South Wales, to be the most prolific offenders. twitter

Yet the report, to be published by anti-bullying charity Ditch the Label, included words such as “bitch” that have been assimilated into common usage and are not always deemed offensive.

The charity said the findings demonstrated policy should to be aimed at reducing misogyny among both sexes.

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Scientific Integrity is Constant Challenge: A Classic Historical Example

Written by Dr Tim Ball

A scientist is by practice a skeptic. As Douglas Yates said,

No scientific theory achieves public acceptance until it has been thoroughly discredited.

The public definition of skeptic is different from that for science, which is

Not easily convinced; having doubts or reservations.

For the public, it is more properly that of cynicism.

believing that people are motivated by self-interest; distrustful of human sincerity or integrity:

This is why the epithet “global warming skeptics” easily marginalized those who questioned the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

It is difficult to challenge the work of others even as a scientist because it goes against the gregarious and collective nature of humans and Groupthink. It is more difficult today because of changing views in the society that spill over into science.

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Summary Against Modern Thought: How Our Intellects & Brains Interact

Written by William M Briggs

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT.

Previous post.

All right, if our intellects are not material but our bodies (obviously) are, how the twain meet? The meat starts in paragraph 8. 

Chapter 56 In what way an intellectual substance can be united to the body (alternate translation) We are using the alternate translation again this week; the primary is still down. thought

1 Having shown that an intellectual substance is not a body or a power dependent on a body, it remains for us to inquire whether an intellectual substance can be united to a body.

2 In the first place, it is evident that an intellectual substance cannot be united to a body by way of mixture.

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Soybean nitrogen breakthrough could help feed the world

Written by seeddaily.com

Washington State University biologist Mechthild Tegeder has developed a way to dramatically increase the yield and quality of soybeans. Her greenhouse-grown soybean plants fix twice as much nitrogen from the atmosphere as their natural counterparts, grow larger and produce up to 36 percent more seeds.

Tegeder designed a novel way to increase the flow of nitrogen, an essential nutrient, from specialized bacteria in soybean root nodules to the seed-producing organs. She and Amanda Carter, a biological sciences graduate student, found the increased rate of nitrogen transport kicked the plants into soyoverdrive.

Their work, published recently in Current Biology, is a major breakthrough in the science of improving crop yields. It could eventually help address society’s critical challenge of feeding a growing human population while protecting the environment.

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The “Ice-Free Arctic” Big Lie

Written by Tony Heller

screen-shot-2016-09-28-at-4-31-33-am-down

Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist | The Independent

Every year we are told by Nobel Prize winners, climate scientists and environmental activists that the Arctic will be ice-free that year. They are flat-earthers.

It is impossible for the Arctic to be ice-free under current climate conditions, because the Earth is round. Because of the high albedo of clouds and ice and the low angle of the sun, north of 80N they don’t get enough solar energy to melt that much ice. The prevailing winds also jam the ice up against the Canadian Coast, and make it very thick.

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There’s A Huge Glacier On Mars, And It Once Covered Most Of The Planet

Written by Andrew Follett

European scientists found parts of a huge glacier that once covered most of Mars. High-resolution photos captured by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Mars Express probe show that much of the glacier has now been covered by wind-blown dust and erosion.The underlying sheet of glacial ice seems to be retreating, which may have contributed to a planet wide altitude difference equivalent to several miles. Mars Express has been orbiting the Red Planet since 2003.

mars

Terrain surrounding the area has ridges and troughs that ESA geologists suspect are associated with the glacier. Scientists suspect that Mars was mostly covered in glaciers multiple times within the past several hundred million years.

This discovery of the glacier on Mars is more evidence that the Red Planet may contain habitats that could potentially support life.

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New paper: Solar Cosmic Rays and Climate

Written by Oliver K. Manuel and Golden Hwaung

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to show the public solar cosmic rays irradiated the early solar system after its birth five billion years (5 Ga) ago, still do, and influence Earth’s climate today. Cosmic rays are one of many ways the Sun’s pulsar core maintains invisible contact with atoms, lives and planets in the solar system. Cosmic rays produce tracks of ion pairs (charge separation) on traversing Earth’s atmosphere. The attractive force of water vapor condensation into water droplets along ion tracks produces electrically charged clouds, rain, lightning and thunder as frequent reminders a solar pulsar controls human destinycosmic-rays

[This paper  appears in International Journal of Advanced Research, IJAR-12995, accepted for publication 13 Oct 2016 ]

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Grey zone: Questionable research practice blurs boundary between science and misconduct

Written by Nick Butler, Helen Delaney, Sverre Spoelstra

A foggy signpost
Source: iStock
Earlier this year, Paolo Macchiarini – former star surgeon and professor at Stockholm’sKarolinska Institutewas dismissed from his post following a high-profile investigation prompted by a documentary broadcast on Swedish national television. Macchiarini was found guilty of failing to secure ethical approval for experimental transplant techniques and misrepresenting data in journal publications. The scandal continues to resonate throughout the scientific community and has so far led to the resignation of the vice-chancellor of Sweden’s most prestigious medical university and the secretary general of the Nobel Prize committee,among others.

Such egregious breaches of scientific protocol are serious, but mercifully rare. Far more prevalent – and therefore even more damaging – are research practices that fall into an ethical “grey zone” between overt misconduct and scholarly best practice. Academic misconduct refers to forms of fabrication, falsification and plagiarism (FFP) – in other words, the terrain of fraudsters, con artists and cheats. Questionable research practices (QRPs), however, are more difficult to pin down but typically involve misrepresentation, inaccuracy or bias. Recent research suggests that academics are becoming more adept at employing QRPs that skirt around the edges of misconduct, like athletes who optimise their performance with artificial enhancements without technically breaking the rules. To put it into perspective, one study found that only 2 per cent of scientists admit to FFP, while almost a third admit to engaging in QRPs.

One prominent example of a QRP is “HARKing”, standing for “hypothesising after the results are known”. Normally, researchers follow the standard scientific practice of developing a hypothesis and then testing it against the facts. But HARKing involves constructing or changing a hypothesis after the data have been collected and analysed. If this is concealed from journal editors, the integrity of the scientific process is compromised. Yet, strictly speaking, HARKing is not considered academic misconduct, even if it is frowned upon by many researchers.

In a new study, we highlight the problem of questionable research practices in the business school. Management scholars tend to publish articles that use the hypothetico-deductive method to show the effects of, say, leadership styles on organisational performance. Here, the study of management is seen as a scientific discipline that adheres to rigorous methodological standards. By the same token, journal editors will retract published articles if they fall short of these standards.

However, we found evidence that QRPs are widespread in this field. For example, it is common for researchers to play with numbers to get the best (read: most publishable) outcome. This could involve removing outliers to confirm their hypothesis or fishing within the data to find unanticipated results. Such practices fall into the grey zone if they are hidden from editors and reviewers during the peer-review process. Unlike FFP, QRPs are more difficult to detect. As one respondent acknowledged, “I can just delete like 100 data points [and] you would never know it. How would you know? How would anybody find out?”

Consequently, highly ranked journals may be flooded with papers with results that are simply too good to be true. This was aptly shown by a recent study that identified a “chrysalis effect” in business research – that is, how subpar results in doctoral dissertations miraculously transform into beautiful peer-reviewed publications. The implication is that researchers manipulate their hypotheses or misrepresent their data to meet the exacting standards found in academic journals.

The most common explanations for the prevalence of QRPs include inadequate methodological training and the pressure to publish. However, the chrysalis effect points to another explanation: the demands and expectations of highly ranked journals encourage researchers to engage in questionable research practices. This is highlighted by one of our respondents, who reported that journals sometimes insist that “you come up with a hypothesis that you didn’t have before, and then test it and then report that as a confirmatory analysis in the paper – which is actually not allowed”. There is, of course, a paradox here. To live up to the unrealistic ideal of science promoted by top-tier journals, scholars may find themselves transgressing this ideal.

The question is what should be done to discourage QRPs. The standard answer is for journals to improve the ethical guidelines for authors and strengthen the peer-review process. Others have called for more openness in science, such as publicly registering hypotheses or establishing central data repositories. But this does nothing to address the role that journals play in fostering QRPs.

One alternative is to develop a “transparency index”, as proposed by the founders of the Retraction Watch website. This would provide a numerical metric of the journal’s transparency in a number of areas, such as peer review, retraction record, mechanisms for detecting misconduct and procedures for dealing with questionable research practices. The transparency index could also determine whether journals compel authors to acknowledge changes to their method or hypothesis during the research process. Establishing such an index would refocus attention on how journals often serve to reproduce – or even foster – bad academic habits.

Of course, most journals would be unlikely to adopt this index if it clashed with their much-prized impact factor. So we may continue to rely on post-publication peer-review websites such as PubPeer to hold researchers and journals to account.

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Nick Butler is assistant professor in the Stockholm Business School at Stockholm University, Sweden. Helen Delaney is senior lecturer in management and international business at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. Sverre Spoelstra is senior lecturer in the department of business administration at Lund University, Sweden.

Read more at www.timeshighereducation.com

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Insane Global HFC Ban: Mistaking theory for achievement

Written by Dr John Ray

The Los Angeles Times (October 16, 2016) reports: “Nearly 200 nations have reached a deal, announced Saturday morning after all-night negotiations, to limit the use of “greenhouse gases” far more powerful than carbon dioxide in a major effort to fight climate change.

The talks on hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, were called the first test of global will since the historic Paris Agreement to cut carbon emissions was reached last year. HFCs are described as the world’s fastest-growing climate pollutant and are used in air conditioners and refrigerators. Experts say cutting them is the fastest way to reduce global warming.” cfc

However, CFCs and HFCs are the safest gases for use in refrigeration. But in accord with their unfailing agenda of destruction, Greenies have now got both banned.  So more dangerous gases will have to be used. Air conditioners that explode or burst into flames coming to a place near you shortly.

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“NASA Industrial Complex” New Twist on Eisenhower’s Warning

Written by Dr Jerry L Krause

Dr Jerry Krause offers a personal scientific insight into NASA’s burgeoning budgetary demands after we posted Andrew Follett’s ‘There’s A Huge Glacier On Mars, And It Once Covered Most Of The Planet.’ Read below (from his posted comment):

In his farewell speech (1/17/1961) President Eisenhower raised the issue of the Cold War and role of the U.S. armed forces. He described the Cold War: “We face a hostile ideology global in scope, atheistic in character, ruthless in purpose, and insidious in method … ” and warned about what he saw as unjustified government spending proposals and continued with a warning that “we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence whether, sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.” (Wikipedia)

eisenhower

The Magellan spacecraft was launched by NASA (5/4/1989) to use radar to map the surface of Venus. This ended an eleven year gap in U.S. interplanetary probe launches.

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Scientists Say Global Cooling “Now Beginning”

Written by Marc Morano

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Solving Global Warming & the de Saussure Device Paradox

Written by Dr Jerry L Krause

A lament:  When I have entered into discussions about the greenhouse effect, global warming, climate change, I have been routinely criticized as not understanding science and/or its method by those on both sides of the controversies.  And John O’Sullivan, editor of PSI, has recently shared with me:  “As you correctly identify, the main complaint I get about your articles is that they seem rambling and confusing. Best to keep to simple points and remember that most readers have shorter attention spans. Few are retired with time on their hands and prefer to come here to get neat ‘packets’ of information.” paradox

I conclude these critics might not be familiar with the science of chemistry, and if they once were, maybe they have forgotten.  I have this forgetting problem all the time.  But I consider this is not the entire answer because I know as a chemist I was not the scientist I am today.  For near the end of my career as a chemistry instructor at a small community college I began to read the classic books written by the founders of what I term—modern science.  These authors were Galileo Galilei and Isaac Newton.

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NASA Mission Prepares for Next Jupiter Pass

Written by NASA

Mission managers for NASA’s Juno mission to Jupiter have decided to postpone the upcoming burn of its main rocket motor originally scheduled for Oct. 19. This burn, called the period reduction maneuver (PRM), was to reduce Juno’s orbital period around Jupiter from 53.4 to 14 days. The decision was made in order to further study the performance of a set of valves that are part of the spacecraft’s fuel pressurization system. The period reduction maneuver was the final scheduled burn of Juno’s main engine.
juno

“Telemetry indicates that two helium check valves that play an important role in the firing of the spacecraft’s main engine did not operate as expected during a command sequence that was initiated yesterday,” said Rick Nybakken, Juno project manager at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “The valves should have opened in a few seconds, but it took several minutes. We need to better understand this issue before moving forward with a burn of the main engine.”
After consulting with Lockheed Martin Space Systems of Denver and NASA Headquarters, Washington, the project decided to delay the PRM maneuver at least one orbit. The most efficient time to perform such a burn is when the spacecraft is at the part of its orbit which is closest to the planet. The next opportunity for the burn would be during its close flyby of Jupiter on Dec. 11.

Mission designers had originally planned to limit the number of science instruments on during Juno’s Oct. 19 close flyby of Jupiter. Now, with the period reduction maneuver postponed, all of the spacecraft’s science instruments will be gathering data during the upcoming flyby.

“It is important to note that the orbital period does not affect the quality of the science that takes place during one of Juno’s close flybys of Jupiter,” said Scott Bolton, principal investigator of Juno from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. “The mission is very flexible that way. The data we collected during our first flyby on August 27th was a revelation, and I fully anticipate a similar result from Juno’s October 19th flyby.”

The Juno spacecraft launched on Aug. 5, 2011, from Cape Canaveral, Florida, and arrived at Jupiter on July 4, 2016.

JPL manages the Juno mission for the principal investigator, Scott Bolton, of Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. Juno is part of NASA’s New Frontiers Program, which is managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, built the spacecraft. Caltech in Pasadena, California, manages JPL for NASA.

More information on the Juno mission is available at:
http://www.nasa.gov/juno

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Solar dimming/brightening effect over the Mediterranean1979 − 2012

Written by H.D. Kambezidisa, D.G. Kaskaoutisa, et al.

Abstract: Numerous studies have shown that the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface is subjected to multi-decadal variations with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneities in both magnitude and sign. Although several studies have examined the solar radiation trends over Europe, North America and Asia, the Mediterranean Basin has not been studied extensively.

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This work investigates the evolution and trends in the surface net short-wave radiation (NSWR, surface solar radiation – reflected) over the Mediterranean Basin during the period 1979 − 2012 using monthly re-analysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and aims to shed light on the specific role of clouds on the NSWR trends.

The solar dimming/brightening phenomenon is temporally and spatially analyzed over the Mediterranean Basin. The spatially-averaged NSWR over the whole Mediterranean Basin was found to increase in MERRA by +0.36 Wm−2 per decade, with higher rates over the western Mediterranean (+0.82 Wm−2 per decade), and especially during spring (March-April-May; +1.3 Wm−2 per decade). However, statistically significant trends in NSWR either for all-sky or clean-sky conditions are observed only in May.

The increasing trends in NSWR are mostly associated with decreasing ones in cloud optical depth (COD), especially for the low (<700 hPa) clouds. The decreasing COD trends (less opaque clouds and/or decrease in absolute cloudiness) are more pronounced during spring, thus controlling the increasing tendency in NSWR.

The NSWR trends for cloudless (clear) skies are influenced by changes in the water-vapor content or even variations in surface albedo to a lesser degree, whereas aerosols are temporally constant in MERRA. The slight negative trend (not statistically significant) in NSWR under clear skies for nearly all months and seasons implies a slight increasing trend in water vapor under a warming and more humid climatic scenario over the Mediterranean.

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Scientists: Climate Models Fail When Trying to Simulate Human Impacts

Written by Kenneth Richard

According to a recently published paper in the journal Science, (Cook et al., 2016, “Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula”), between 1945 and 2009 the mean ocean temperature warmed at depths of 150 to 400 meters for about 3/4ths of the waters surrounding the western Antarctic Peninsula (AP).  The other 1/4th of the ocean waters at those depths (150 to 400 m) cooled (by -1°C ) during  those 65 years.

antarctica-cooling-oceans-cook16-1945-2009

As the authors point out, and as the graph above shows, in the areas where the waters warmed (light red shaded), glacier retreat was observed to be most pronounced (blood red points).  In the regions (Bransfield Strait) where the ocean waters cooled (blue shaded), glaciers were in balance and even advanced (blue points).  Citing this strong correlation between regional ocean warming/cooling and regional glacier retreat/advance, the authors concluded that the long-held assumption that atmospheric and surface  warming (presumably driven by greenhouse gases) was what primarily caused Antarctic glaciers to recede is not supported by the evidence.  Instead, it is the temperature of the ocean waters that “have been the predominant control on multidecadal glacier front behavior in the western AP.”

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