Jan Zeman provides a telling appraisal applying official raw data of global surface temperatures to refute alarmist claims made in a recently trumpeted paper by Cowtan and Way. Authors’ claims of increased warming are controverted by compelling empirical evidence suggesting an emergent cooling trend instead.

Zeman’s analysis shows Cowtan and Way may have intentionally inserted a warming bias to fill a gap in data coverage of the tropical and polar regions. Principia Scientific International has pleasure in publishing Zeman’s damning full report below:

SIGNS OF COOLING

by Jan Zeman

Because there was a lot of publicity around the Cowtan and Way 2013 paper I decided to look into the issue, although, I note, it is not main concern of this article and it only makes suitable pretext to examine what is really going on with the global temperatures recently.

I was not much interested in their calculations and methods (since I’m not much interested in methods of data torture. Besides, they have already been scrutinized by much more knowledgeable people), but rather in the following questions:

Where did they obtain such data that would support a “two and a half times greater” rise of global temperature anomaly “trends starting in 1997 or 1998” in their “hybrid global reconstruction” when compared to the HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly data-set, what such data really show and whether such data agree with other data or not?

The main rationale of their analysis seems to me to be that there is some missing coverage for the HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly dataset “with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa” and that it is the alleged reason why the HadCRUT4 dataset outcomes are purportedly biased, allegedly showing less warming than there is in reality. The main result of their analysis widely publicized was the bold red global trend. Because of this, the first thing I looked for was whether there actually are other data covering the regions and what trends one can find there.

Tropics

For starters, let’s see a comparison of HadCRUT4 and satellite lower troposphere data for the tropics.

(Note that I chose trend period exactly October-October to avoid potential disputes about the seasonal variations and cherry-picking. The data and calculations are available here.)

What we immediately see on the graph is that the HadCRUT4 trend 1997-present for the tropics (30S-30N) is flat (but it is slightly rising for the whole globe ~0.046°C per decade). We also see that both the UAH (the dataset Cowtan and Way likely used for their “reanalysis“ of the HadCRUT4 dataset) and the RSS satellite records show a descending temperature trend in the 1997-present period for the tropics. The only satellite data which show a rising temperature trend in the tropics is the UAH lower troposphere-land.

Solar Flux is not Q

This was touched on in the last post, but the steel greenhouse deserves a full logical physics treatment of heat flow to explain what actually happens and why the radiative greenhouse effect believers have it wrong.

First I just want to repeat something.  The radiative heat flow equation

Q = A*σ(Th4 – Tc4)

does not stand for conservation of energy where Q is the solar energy, and the hot term is the Earth’s surface and the cool one the atmosphere.  Conservation of solar energy does not occur between the surface and the atmosphere.  Why would solar energy be conserved as a difference in flux, as a heat flow, between the surface and atmosphere?  This reinterpretation of the equation has no logical or physical basis.  Solar energy is conserved to the outside of the system, not inside between the surface and atmosphere.  I just don’t know why this reinterpretation of the heat flow equation would have been invented.  The hot and cool term represent sources of energy, and Q is the local difference between them resulting in heat flow; the solar heating has to be one of the sources, on the right hand side of the equation, because it is a source, and the energy from the Sun is not dependent upon the difference between two other arbitrary and undefined sources.

You see, one of the ways to create science sophistry, is to simply misinterpret or worse lie about what the physics equations mean.  It is as simple as that is all they have to do, is lie about what an equation means, because most people don’t have the physics training to be able to know what the equation actually means and what the terms actually refer to.

A Freedom of Information Act request in the UK filed by a doctor there has revealed 30 years of secret official documents showing that government experts have:

1. Known the vaccines don’t work
2. Known they cause the diseases they are supposed to prevent
3. Known they are a hazard to children
4. Colluded to lie to the public
5. Worked to prevent safety studies

Those are the same vaccines that are mandated to children in the US.

Educated parents can either get their children out of harm’s way or continue living inside one of the largest most evil lies in history, that vaccines – full of heavy metals, viral diseases, mycoplasma, fecal material, DNA fragments from other species, formaldehyde, polysorbate 80 (a sterilizing agent) – are a miracle of modern medicine.

Freedom of Information Act filed in the US with the CDC by a doctor with an autistic son, seeking information on what the CDC knows about the dangers of vaccines, had by law to be responded to in 20 days. Nearly 7 years later, the doctor went to court and the CDC argued it does not have to turn over documents. A judge ordered the CDC to turn over the documents on September 30th, 2011.

There They’re Their

While everyone seems to be talking about the latest cyber-technology, Amazon appears to be taking the lead in large-scale commercial application. They are exploring the use of small drones for delivering your next parcel shipment.

Mini-Drones

Recent events underscore problems with understanding climate and how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) achieved their deception. Comments about my recent article appreciated it was a synopsis. The problems were central in my presentation to the First Heartland Climate Conference in New York relating to climatology as a generalist discipline in a world that glorifies specialization. The dictum in academia and beyond is specialization is the mark of genius, generalization the mark of a fool. In the real world each specialized piece must fit the larger general picture and most people live and function in a generalized world. The phrase “it is purely academic” means it is irrelevant to the real world.

A secret meeting occurred between Lord Lawson of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and members of the British Royal Society. Why the secrecy? It is likely because this collective of specialists is scrambling to recover reputations after being misled.

Claiming they were deliberately deceived in the propaganda campaign orchestrated through the British Royal Society is no excuse. The supposed prestige of that Society was used to persuade other national Science Societies that human caused global warming was a serious and proven fact. The only Society that refused to go along was the Russian. It was a deliberately orchestrated campaign that allowed media to use the consensus argument with focus. I was frequently challenged with the interrogative in the form of a consensus argument that you must be wrong because science Societies all agree.

Climate science is the work of specialists working on one small part of climatology. It’s a classic example of not seeing the forest for the trees, amplified when computer modellers are involved. They are specialists trying to be generalists but omit major segments, and often don’t know interrelationships, interactions and feedbacks in the general picture.

German scientists contend that two natural cycles will combine to lower global temperatures throughout the 21^stCentury.

The scientists show that there is an approximate 200-year solar cycle, supported by historical temperature data and proxy data from stalagmites in caves.  “The solar activity agrees well with the terrestrial climate. It clearly shows in particular all historic temperature minima.”

There is also an approximate 65-year cycle of the Atlantic/Pacific oscillation (AMO/PDO) which is well-established by multiple lines of observations.

The 200-year solar cycle has just passed its maximum and will decline during the 21^st Century.  It is at least in part responsible for the warming of the last decades of the 20^th Century. The AMO/PDO cycle is also beginning its cool phase and will reach a minimum in 2035.

The scientists say that “Non-periodic processes like a warming through the monotonic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere could cause at most 0.1°C to 0.2°C warming for a doubling of the CO2 content, as it is expected for 2100.”  This positive forcing will be overwhelmed by the stronger negative forcing of natural cycles.  They conclude that “the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the “little ice age” of 1870.” Read more here.  Below is a graph of historical temperatures and temperature predictions.

This work has been published in two papers:

H.-J. Lüdecke, A. Hempelmann, and C.O. Weiss: Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records, clim. past, 9, 447-452, 2013

F. Steinhilber and J. Beer, Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, Jour. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., Vol. 118, 1861-1867 (2013)

Heat Flow

The climate science greenhouse effect is a simulacrum.  It is not science, nor is everything that is based on it science.  All of climate alarm is a simulacrum, a fraud, and most of what could have been real climate science has been infected and ruined by it.  It uses the words of science to give itself the appearance of science, but it does not actually contain the essence of science, i.e. the method or wisdom or rationality of science.  See the last post for more detail on this.  What it is, is an attack on human existence.

Let’s cover some basics about calculating the temperature that heating from sunlight is able to generate on a surface absorbing solar energy.

The temperature T induced by sunlight on a cooler surface when in thermal equilibrium is given by

F = ε*σ*T4

where F is the absorbed (and then re-emitted when in equilibrium) flux.  The absorbed flux is the solar insolation, ‘I’, multiplied by the absorptivity, and absorptivity is 1 minus the albedo ‘α’.  So then

I*(1-α) = ε*σ*T4

and you can rearrange for T to get the temperature of the surface absorbing the insolation:

T = (I*(1-α)/ε/σ)1/4

This equation predicts surface temperatures exposed to sunlight very accurately, as shown in real greenhouses, black asphalt, beach sand, car interiors, spacecraft, etc.

Now, the equation

Q = A*σ*(Th4 – Tc4)

is for heat flow.  (‘A’ is the area here so that the units of heat are properly in Joules.)  Q is just the portion of the energy which is flowing as heat.  This is a different thing than what we just looked at.  Q is not the value of absorbed solar insolation, I*(1-a).  Q is not the solar insolation energy.  If it was, then you would have

I*(1-α) = A*σ*(Th4 – Tc4)

but that equation is nonsensical, because the terms don’t make sense given the preexisting context of solar insolation absorbed into a surface.  In the first place, the units on the left and right hand sides don’t even match!  And then, what is Th?

The UN IPCC and others with a vested interest in the global warming scare have not bothered to check what sea level evidence says about global temperature changes.Sea levels are very sensitive to temperature changes, and the oceanic indicators are currently reading “steady”. So are all other thermometers.

Apart from bubbles of heat surrounding big cities, the thermometers and satellites of the world have not shown a warming trend for 17 years. This is in spite of some inspired fiddling with the records by those whose jobs, research grants and reputations depend on their ability to generate alarming forecasts of destructive global warming.

To explain this absence of warming on Earth’s surface, the warmists now claim that “the missing heat is hiding in the deep oceans”. This sounds like a water-tight alibi, hard to disprove because of our inability to measure “average ocean temperature” directly. However, the ocean itself is a huge thermometer – all we have to do is to read the gauges. Most liquids expand when heated, and this property is used in traditional thermometers. They have a glass reservoir filled with liquid (usually mercury) and a graduated scale to measure any thermal expansion of that liquid.

Oceans have the essentials of a global thermometer – the huge ocean basins are the reservoir, sea water acts like the mercury, and tide gauges on the shore-line (or satellites) measure changes in sea water volume.Two factors, both dependent on global temperature, are the main causes of any general rise in sea levels – how much ice has melted from land-based ice sheets like Greenland and Antarctica; and the expansion of sea water volume as ocean temperature rises.

A leading world expert on arable pasture science has entered the global warming debate to cast serious doubt on UN claims that so-called ‘greenhouse gases’ from beef and general livestock production have any impact on climate change.

Dr. Albrecht Glatzle, a Fellow of the Tropical Grassland Society of Australia Inc., has this week sent an open letter to Dr. Henning Steinfeld, who heads the UN’s Livestock, Environment and Development (LEAD) iniatitive, challenging alarmist UN claims about “dangerous” emissions from such farms.

Trashing real science to protect grants, prestige, and desire to control energy, economy, lives

The Medieval Warm Period (950-1300 AD or CE) was a boon for agriculture, civilization and Viking settlers in Greenland. The Little Ice Age that followed (1300-1850) was calamitous, as were the Dust Bowl and the extended droughts that vanquished the Anasazi and Mayan cultures; cyclical droughts and floods in Africa, Asia and Australia; and periods of vicious hurricanes and tornadoes. Repeated Pleistocene Epoch ice ages covered much of North America, Europe and Asia under mile-thick ice sheets that denuded continents, stunted plant growth, and dropped ocean levels 400 feet for thousands of years.

A short comment by Nils-Axel Mörner

Some people claim sea level is drastically rising in Kiribati. Much of this stems from boyscout contributions to the horror-scenario of a general flooding in the near future due to a global warming caused by man-made interference, in the form of CO2-emission.

Mr. Benson (in the photo) claims that he “stands on the ruins of the shore” in the 90s.

Bad science puts rich nations on the hook for trillions in climate liabilities

Delegates at the recent U.N. climate conference in Warsaw decided that $1 billion a day, the amount currently being spent across the world on “climate finance,” is not enough. Far greater funding is needed to save the world from what U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls the “greatest threat facing humanity.” That climate science is highly immature and global warming actually stopped 17 years ago was never mentioned.

Here’s what our representatives just agreed to:

Starting in 2014, the U.N.’s Green Climate Fund, a plan to divert an additional $100 billion per year from the treasuries of developed countries to those of developing nations to help them “take action on climate change,” will commence operation. The heads of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are scheduled to take part in a launch ceremony for the GCF headquarters in South Korea on Wednesday.

A timetable was accepted to pave the way toward the establishment of a new international treaty in 2015 that will force developed countries to spend untold billions more to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. The fine print in the negotiating text includes an escape clause for developing nations, indicating that carbon-dioxide emission targets their governments agree to will not be enforced. Developed nations do not have this escape clause.

No More Analogies

In my last post we developed the equations for the temperature of a powered resistor with or without an ambient environment.

As has been pointed out to me, and has now been made clear to me, is that “argument by analogy” is a trap.  Analogies are an approximation to the “actual thing”, but are not the actual thing.  Also, an analogy from an actual thing, to another idea-thing, doesn’t in any way indicate something else which is factually-actual.

What I mean is that a horse is analogous to a unicorn, however, this does not lend any support, not one iota of support, to the supposition that unicorns exist.  You can have the proposition that unicorns exist, of course, and you can say that unicorns are analogous to horses and that since horses exist, then unicorns should also exist since “they’re so well known – everybody has heard of a unicorn!”, and you can have lots of people agree with you, and people can write papers about the properties of unicorns since they’re so similar to horses…however, none of this proves or supports in any way at all the proposition that unicorns exist.

Climate pseudoscience almost exclusively uses argument by analogy to attempt to support its version of the greenhouse effect.  See, climate science has an alternative version of the greenhouse effect, compared to the one that actually makes a real greenhouse function in the first place.  A real greenhouse works the opposite way that the atmosphere operates, by preventing convective cooling.  The real greenhouse effect in a real greenhouse does the opposite thing of what the atmosphere does.  Climate science invented an alternative version of the greenhouse effect, using the same name as the real greenhouse effect, where its version and the atmosphere behave and operate the same way.  The only time that climate pseudoscience isn’t using an analogy to argue for the greenhouse effect, is when it is discussing the terms of its alternative version of the greenhouse effect; however this is very rare because, as soon as you point out that a real greenhouse does not operate the same way as the atmosphere, then immediately the climate pseudoscientist must switch to using an analogy, thus changing the focus away from that very central point.