Latest ONS Vaccination Data Shows Inexplicable Increases In Deaths

The Office for National Statistics released the long-awaited deaths by vaccination status data three days ago

If we compare the two national snapshots we find large and rather inexplicable increases in deaths and person years for the overlapping period of Apr 2021 – May 2022.

These can be used to calculate a set of rates that reflect these changes.

The final two columns of my spreadsheet reveal the associated factor increase, with pink shaded areas revealing possible vaccine harm and blue shaded areas revealing possible vaccine benefit. This is unexpected since I was anticipating random effects:

Just What is Going On?

We may note some negative deaths, which is rather odd. Assuming that ONS haven’t dramatically changed definitions/methodology between their two analyses then my analysis will hold.

If they’ve gone and changed a great deal without telling anybody then we’ve a case for smacking them with a wet haddock and my analysis needs to be binned.

Ideally there shouldn’t be any differences between these two datasets for the period Apr 2021 – May 2022 because they should be counting the same thing each time. This is certainly not the case, and the differences are quite startling, hence my little exploration.

I can forgive them messing with population estimates that will have a knock-on effect for ASMR but I cannot forgive them for differences in the monthly death tally – just where did all those new deaths come from, and are there more in the closet?

Garden Plants

Many folk will eyeball long lists of (rather dubious) ASMR for what is essentially a static snapshot in time over which things are rapidly moving (e.g. people still in the process of dying and estimates of sub-populations will be changing), for which confounding factors will be as long as my arm, if not longer (and I have long arms).

Assuming the ONS are not throwing a curve-ball we can use the change between two national snapshots since this irons out a few confounding wrinkles (but not all).

Another way to look at this is that we can use the difference between the two national surveys to find out who additionally did the dying according to the latest head count and what person years arise with improved population estimates.

An analogy would be to take a photograph of your garden in spring then another in summer then compare then both to see what has grown and by how much. In the first photo all you can say is that some plants were tall and some short.

In the second photo all you can say is that some plants were tall and some short. But if you compare the two photos you’ll get to see what plants did most of the growing and what plants hardly changed.

The problem comes if ONS have presented us with two photos of different gardens, in which case we can trash my efforts and go for a cold beer and a decent plate of nachos, and maybe talk about Alien Reproduction Vehicles (ARVs).

Data Warriors

If you want to fiddle with the data yourself you can find the latest file here.

Meanwhile Joel Smalley has hammered out a cracking article that may be found here – keep your eye on his truly excellent Substack.

The magnificent Dr Clare Craig is running a smashing thread or two over on Twitter, as we may expect, and Igor Chudov has found a hole in the bucket.

Right now fings ain’t what they seem.

See more here substack.com

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Comments (1)

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    Alan

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    I downloaded an ONS spreadsheet some time ago called “Annual number of deaths, crude and age-standardised mortality rates, deaths registered in England and Wales 1838 to 2019 (final) and 2020 (provisional)”. After reading this article I decided to look for an update. I cannot find one and the the one I downloaded is no longer there. What is the ONS hiding?

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