Is Katla Ready to Erupt?
Just over the North Atlantic Ocean from the United States lies a geophysical threat that may be close to unleashing hell on Earth. It is Iceland’s dangerous Katla volcano.
So why the current concern? The reasons are steeped in the history of activity of both Katla and its little sister volcano Eyjafjallajökull (“E” for short), and the start of our next climate change to decades of low solar activity and potentially record cold weather.
If you are unconcerned about the Katla volcano becoming active in Iceland, I will give you six good reasons in this commentary as to why we in the US and elsewhere around the planet, should have this one under close scrutiny.
Figure 1. Map of Iceland showing earthquakes on July 31, 2017. Small colored circles are less than M3.0 magnitude. The only quakes greater than M3.0 are marked by the green star – the location of Mt. Katla which is beneath the Myrdalsjokull glacier. Source: Icelandic Met Office.
Here are some reasons to watch Iceland:
- Katla is a monster in terms of size and explosive capability.
When and if it erupts, it may equal or exceed the power of the Mt. Pinatubo 1991 eruption that lowered global temperatures between 1991 and 1995, as it spread aerosols and noxious gasses around the planet. Pinatubo and Katla both have the ability to produce eruptions at a level “6” of what is called the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). To compare, Mt. St. Helens which erupted May 18, 1980, had a VEI of 5. Among the many Philippine villages and country side covered by Mt. Pinatubo’s volcanic ash was the huge American Clark Air Force base and the large US naval base at Subic Bay. About 722 people were killed, many from volcanic ash mud flows (lahars). Approximately 200,000 people were left homeless. Ample warning from seismologists and government enforced evacuations averted a much higher death toll.
- The economic impacts on Europe and Russia could be significant – potentially affecting US trade with them.
Europe will be directly in Katla’s crosshairs from a major eruption as large or larger than the last big one in 1918. Like the 2010 eruption of “E,” which sent an ash plume out covering most of Europe and much of Russia, a Katla eruption would be far worse. “E” shut down air traffic in Europe from 15 to 20 April 2010. The International Air Transport Association estimated the industry lost $1.7 billion from the “E” eruption. If Katla, a much larger volcano erupts, it potentially could shut down air travel to and throughout Europe possibly for not just days, but for weeks if not months. US travel and trade revenues with Europe will take a big hit. Depending on the season, a worst case eruption of Katla could also have devastating consequences for European and Russian agriculture.
- Recent earthquakes under the volcano may signal rising magma.
An M 4.5 earthquake under the volcano on July 26, 2017, and a small swarm of subsequent temblors may presage that all the pieces of this mean volcano’s story may be coming together, heralding another historic eruption. That size of an M4.5 quake would hardly be noticeable among earthquake familiar residents of California, yet this one ranks as very important since it took place virtually under the Katla volcano at a shallow depth of 10 km. As we all learned from the Mt. St. Helens volcano on May 18, 1980, earthquakes can be vital precursors to a volcano about to blow its top.
Importantly, this is a rare quake for Katla. Though two of equal strength hit there in August 2016, the three are the largest earthquakes at the volcano since an M5.1 hit in 1977. Though summer glacial melting produces small earthquakes under these glaciers, these rare M 4.5 size quakes could be a sign the sleeping giant is about to awake again, especially since the one this July produced a quick flood of melted glacier water which had a dark color and sulfurous smell. The flash flood indicates at least a small Katla eruption under the Myrdasjokull glacier took place.
In Figure 2 below we see the area of Iceland containing the “E” and Katla volcanoes. Katla lies buried under the massive Myrdalsjokull glacier which has ice depths between about 700 feet and 2,600 feet. The recent M 4.5 quake was just to the southeast of the Katla caldera.
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