Ignore COVID Fear Porn, the UK Death Rate was HIGHER in 1999!

Written by Dr Darko Butina on October 11, 2020. Posted in Current News

Publicly available official data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for the past 21 years proves continued emergency lockdown measures cannot be justified on the grounds of death rate. Dr Darko Butina’s new study proves NO excess weekly mortalities have been recorded in England and Wales since May 29th and September 25, 2020.

The ONS numbers have been collated and presented in the damning graph below. The line in red shows how the 2020 coronavirus pandemic played out from January 2020, ‘Week 1‘ in  up to ‘Week 39‘ (September 25, 2020). The light blue line is the plot for the year 1999. All the other overlaid colored data plots are of deaths for all other years since 1999.

As you can see, the year 1999 started and finished with a high death rate and puts into context how the COVID19 virus is no longer the threat it once was.

Moreover, even during the peak of the 2020 pandemic (during Weeks 16 & 17) the death rate was still not outside the range of a bad flu season.

Figure 1. Plot of all weekly mortality rates for last 21 years (1999 – 2020). Highlighted years 2020 (red), 1999/2000 (light blue) and 2019 (yellow)

As Dr Butina explains:

“The above figure is a direct plot of all the weekly mortality rates for England and Wales, from the mid-1999 up to the last week of September 2020, published by the Office for National Statistics (www.ons.gov.uk).

The X-axis represents each week of a year, labelled as w-1 to w-52, when a death was registered, while the Y-axis represents respective weekly death count, or mortality rate. The total number of weeks plotted in the graph above is 1075.

Let us first describe the graph above, by simply looking at the weekly mortality rates in last 21 years without reference to some arbitrary terms like ‘excess mortality’ used by the statisticians at the Office of National statistics:

• The current year, 2020, in red, had the two highest weekly mortality recorded since flu pandemic in winter 1999/2000, the weeks 16 and 17 had the mortality of 22,351 and 21,997 respectively (highlighted at the top of Fig.1)
• The 3^rd highest weekly mortality was recorded 21 years ago, week 52 in 1999 (light blue) when 18,582 people died that week, top right corner
• The weekly mortality rates of this year (red) since the week 22 (May 29) up to latest week available at the time of writing, week 39 (September 25) cannot be separated from the same weeks mortalities in the last 21 years. In other words, the annual weekly mortalities for the weeks 22 to 39 (the months of June, July, August, and September) of 2020 are following the identical patterns to those observed in EVERY single year since 1999
• Last year, 2019 (in yellow) was incredibly low on the ‘flu front’ and 2020 is almost perfectly aligned with 2019 with all indications that the same patterns are expected to continue towards the end of this year, as they did in last 21 years

So here is the problem that all those statisticians and governmental scientific advisors must address, without insulating our intelligence:

Fact 1:

The lockdown was justified and based on the extremely high weekly mortality rates observed in April and May of this year and recorded by the Office for National Statistics.

Fact 2:

The weekly mortality numbers recorded and published by the same Office for National Statistics (and plotted in Fig.1) since the end of May 2020 CAN NOT be distinguished from the weekly mortalities for the same annual period (w-22 to w-39) observed for EACH of the previous 21 years.

Fact 3:

It is scientifically, statistically, and logically impossible to argue, that it is justifiable to impose the unprecedented lockdown of this country, using extremely high weekly mortality rates observed in April and May, while totally ignoring the fact the weekly mortality rates for the last the 4 months have returned back to normal and are undistinguishable from the same annual period observed in last 21 years. Instead of totally removing distancing and face masks, the government is talking about starting another round of lockdowns. Why and on what evidence – it cannot be weekly mortality rates.

In conclusion

When scientists pick and choose very selectively which datapoints to use to achieve a wanted outcome, while totally ignoring the majority of the datapoints not fitting the narrative, it is not merely statistical artistry, it is more properly termed scientific fraud. “

About the author: Dr Darko Butina has spent his professional career of 40 years in the Drug Discovery sector, 20 years as an experimental chemist during which time he was an integral part of the team that discovered the first effective treatment for migraine. During his last 20 years, he moved in the field of the computational drug discovery where computers and statistics are used to optimise the potential drug-like molecules in terms of their activity and safety. During that period, he developed a new clustering algorithm that can classify/group molecules in terms of their chemical structure, activity, and drug-like properties. His algorithm became a standard in the global pharmaceutical industry and academia.

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