The year 2018 could mark the beginning of the end of climate change alarmist reporting. Projections of catastrophic melting of the ice sheets and sea level rise swallowing up the Earth’s coasts are increasingly undermined by observations.
Ice Melt And Sea Level Rise Refute Alarmist Predictions. Again
Extensive glacier and ice sheet melt resulting in an accelerated sea level rise threatening the world’s population centers living along the coasts is indeed the most legitimate threat posed by a global-scale warming trend.
Alarming sea level rise predictions abound. Several meters of sea level rise due to the catastrophic melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been predicted based on anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios.
For example, claims that we shall experience 260 centimeters (2.6 meters or 8.5 feet) of global sea level rise by 2100 unless we dramatically curtail our fossil fuel consumption have been published by authors like Dr. Michael Mann and Dr. Richard Alley (Garner et al. 2017).
These same authors even suggest seas will rise by 17.5 meters (19.1 yards) in the next 180 years (Mörner et al., 2018).
Image Source: Mörner et al., 2018
Despite the hackneyed practice of reporting “staggering” ice sheet melt for both Greenland and Antarctica in recent decades, the two polar ice sheets combined added just 1.5 centimeters (0.6 in) to sea level rise between 1958 and 2014 (graph from Frederikse et al., 2018); global sea levels only rose by “1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014 (1σ)” or “1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 for the sum of contributors”.
That’s about 7.8 centimeters (3.1 inches) of global sea level change in 56 years.
Even more significantly, satellite observations all across the globe show that the coasts of islands and sandy beaches and continents have not only not been shrinking for the last several decades, but they’ve also been stable to growing on net average.
Along the world’s coasts, there is today more land area above sea level than there was in the mid-1980s (Donchyts et al., 2016), leaving scientists “surprised”.
“We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr. Baart. “We were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking.” (BBC press release for Donchyts et al., 2016)
Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner – a world-renown sea level expert who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University – and three other co-authors have concluded that sea-level rise projections of 2.6 m by 2100 and 17.5 m by 2300 are “deeply flawed” and “not rooted in facts” (Mörner et al., 2018).
What follows is a very abbreviated summary of the dozens of alarmism-quelling papers published in 2018 pertaining to ice sheet melt, sea level rise, and coastal expansion.
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Peter C
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I find it a bit hard to follow.
1.5cm of sea level rise (or less) from 1956-2914 seems about right to me. That is not discernible. The sea shore at Point Cook, Victoria is very low, gently sloping and the adjacent land is also low and flat. The whole area is a large bay Port Phillip bay, with a narrow entrance, so the tidal range at Point Cook is about 6 inches. As far as I can see, the shore line did not change over that time.
However 1.5mm/year x56 years =14.4cm, which could be measured, but has not been.
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Roger Cole
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1.5 times 56 = 84 (in this case, 8.4 cm)
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richard
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Since 2001 the Thames barrier has been decreasing the amount of times it has been closing for flooding.
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