How best to power Africa in the future?

Written by Jack Dini on April 17, 2021. Posted in Current News

Africa is a massive place, much bigger than most folks realize from just looking at a map. The African continent has a land area of 30.37 million square kilometers (11.7 million square miles)–enough to fit in the US, China, India, Japan, Mexico and many European nations, combined. (1)

The population is greater than 1.2 billion, and all in all, there are 54 sovereign African countries and two disputed areas, namely Somaliland and Western Sahara.

The economic situation in this massive place has improved a lot since the 1990s. Yet rampant poverty and food insecurity still impact millions of lives.

Currently, there is a huge demand/supply gap in the agricultural sector. At least three hundred million are malnourished. Africa’s agricultural sector needs to be strengthened to meet the demand for quality food. In 2017, Africa spent $64.5 billion importing food, but importing food is not sustainable in the long run.

World Food Prize Laureate Dr. Akinwumi Adesina says, “It is unacceptable for Africa to import food. Why? Because the continent holds 65 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land. Properly used, even a small part of that land could provide sufficient food for all Africans and even for export.” (2)

While other countries have moved way ahead in food production, Africa has lagged behind. Agricultural productivity in Africa has remained stagnant for the last 40 years.

In Africa, a continent where food security needs more attention than any other place, GM crops are yet to penetrate the agricultural scene. More than 100 independent US, European, and international scientific societies have approved GM crops for their safety and recognize that they do not pose risk to the environment or human health.

In contrast, they are more beneficial than the non-GM variants. According to scientists, the benefits of GM crops include increased yield, improved quality, and adaptability to specific abiotic and biotic stresses such as droughts, pests, and disease, among other. A study that assessed the environmental effects of GM crops globally found that GM crop use reduced pesticide spraying by 352 million kilograms between 1996 and 2008.

A number of countries approved GM crops in 2020. Despite a ban on GM crops since 2011, Kenya approved the cultivation of GM cotton. Nigeria, a key economy in West Africa, approved GM variants of both cotton and cowpea. (2)

But genetically modified crops are yet to penetrate deep into the African agricultural sector due to opposition from anti-GMO lobbies and radical environmentalists. Here’s one example: In the summer of 2002, when famine gripped Africa, the US sent massive amounts of corn to several countries, including about 17,000 tons to Zambia. But there it rotted. It turns out the Zambian government had been told by environmentalist groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth that the food was ‘poison.’ (3)

If Africa wants to get serious about its food security, it must approve GM crops and stay clear of the anti-GM movement that has robbed billions of their rightful access to GM crops—crops that are economically and socially valuable. A strong political will to embrace GM crops will ensure that Africans will be better fed in the future. (2)

Africa has been recording fast economic growth in the last two decades, with an average annual GDP growth of 4.6% (2000-2016). However, that has not been sufficient to meet the developmental goals and poverty is again on the rise. In recent years, poverty rose slightly in Africa for the first time in more than a decade, especially in countries like South Africa, Niger, and Uganda. (4)

To make things more challenging, COVID-19 has had a negative effect on the GDP. The GDP of South Africa, the most economically developed nation in Africa, fell by 16.4 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter.

Like any other developing country, the countries in Africa depend on a strong energy sector to propel their economy. But economic recovery in the midst of an existing situation of energy poverty is not easy. The overall electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa stands at just 52 percent, lower than many developing countries.

What Africa needs is a strong energy sector that can spur a growth in its industrial sector and also increased agricultural productivity. While the improvement in the agrarian sector will ensure stability in local food demand, a robust energy sector will act as the backbone of its future economy. (4)

Coal

Without abundant fuel and power, prosperity is impossible: workers cannot amplify their production, doctors cannot preserve vaccines, students cannot learn after dark, goods cannot get to market. Nearly 700 million Africans rely mainly on wood or dung to cook and heat with, and 600 million have no access to electric light. Britain with 60 million people has nearly as much electricity generating capacity as the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, minus South Africa with 800 million. (5)

Donald Kaberuka, president of the African Development Bank, says it is hypocritical for western governments, made rich by fossil fuels, “to say to African countries, you cannot develop dams, you cannot develop coal, just rely on these very expensive renewables. African countries will not listen.”

To provide most of the needed energy, in the next ten years, Africa will build 1250 coal plants. This will double Africa’s energy and almost all the increase is coming from fossil fuels. At the end of the decade renewables will still make less than 10% of the energy in Africa.

A recent study predicts that in 2030, fossil fuels will account for two-thirds of all generated electricity across Africa. While an additional 18% of generation is set to come from hydro-energy projects, these have their own challenges. (6)

This is only the start. Most countries in Africa are not even in the race yet. Five years ago looking at Niger, a nation of 17 million people, the country sued about as much electricity as Dubbo, Australia, a town with about 40,000 residents. As Matt Ridley says, “Africa needs to be rich—rather than green,”

Nuclear Power

Another alternative: economic, environmental and practical reasons make nuclear power Africa’s best option. Nuclear is most certainly a source of sustainable clean energy. At least seven African countries have signed agreements with the Russian nuclear company Rosatom to develop nuclear capabilities.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are currently being developed, which are ideal for deployment in virtually any location. Large conventional nuclear can be 3000 megawatts (MW) in output, whereas SMR is only about 100 MW. (7)

South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy said in May 2020 it wants a plan to procure as much as 2.5 GW of nuclear generation capacity within the next five years. China is South Africa’s most important trading partner, an important source of investment, and has been making inroads there for a while. Yet, though China may have an edge in trade with South Africa, Russia is actively pursuing export of its nuclear technology across the continent, as it is doing around the globe. (8)

So, even though Africa will increase its coal use in the future, nuclear is a viable option on the horizon.

References

1. Jeff Desjardins, “Mapped: visualizing the true size of Africa,” visualcapitalist.com, February 19, 2020

2. Vijay Jayaraj, “GM crops: more important to Africa’s food security than ever,” December 16, 2020

3. Michael Fumento, Bio Evolution: How Biotechnology is Changing Our World, (San Francisco, CA, Encounter Books, 2003)

4. Vijay Jayaraj, “Africa’s priority: unrestricted energy development,” cornwallalliance.com

5. Matt Ridley, “Africa needs to be rich—rather than green,” the gwpf.com,

6. Joanne Nova, “Africa to double coal fired power by 2030,” joannenova.com.au, April 4, 2021

7. Kelvin Kemm and Knox Msebenzi, “Sensible, sustainable nuclear power for Africa,” wattsupwiththat.com, January 20, 2021

8. Darrell Proctor, “Russia, China drive Africa’s plan for nuclear expansion,” powermag.com, July 1, 2020

PSI editor’s note: Michael Oppenheimer, of the Environmental Defense Fund, said “The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can’t let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization, we have in the US. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are.”

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