Expert: ‘Mass deaths and hospitalisations are now history’

Written by The Daily Mail on December 29, 2021. Posted in Current News

A leading vaccines expert backed Boris Johnson‘s refusal to toughen England’s Covid restrictions, saying that mass deaths and hospitalisations from Covid are ‘history’.

Professor Sir John Bell (pictured), regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the Vaccines Taskforce, said the public had been ‘pretty responsible’ in its response to the spread of the Omicron variant.

It came as new figures showed the number of people in hospital with Covid in England is less than half the same time last year – despite cases being three times higher.

‘The health minister has taken advice and looked at the data. I think his judgment where we should go in the next few days is probably fine,’ Sir John told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

‘There are a lot of people who are aware that we are in the face of this large wave of disease. The behaviour of people in the UK, in England in particular, has been pretty responsible in terms of trying not to go out and spending a lot of time exposing yourself to the virus.’

He added: ‘The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago – intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely – that is now history in my view and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.’

Mr Johnson’s decision last night not to follow the lead of the other home nations in bringing in harsher Covid restrictions ahead of the new year has also been welcomed by Tory MPs who have been at odds with the PM.

He faced a rebellion by more than 100 before Christmas as he brought in new mask-wearing rules and Covid checks for nightspots.

Tory Mark Francois told GB News: ‘It’s remarkable how a backbench rebellion of 101 MPs focuses minds, isn’t it? But let’s not be churlish, this is the right decision, well done Prime Minister.

‘We are asking people to use their common sense – we’re being conservatives. We’re trusting in the good sense of the British people.’

Bassetlaw MP Brendan Clarke-Smith added: ‘It’s about trusting people to make their own decisions about their lives and to use their common sense.’

However other scientists signalled their disagreement with Sir John over the laissez faire rules.

University of Brighton virologist Dr Sarah Pitt called for ‘a few measures’ to curb the spread of Omicron.

The microbiology lecturer told LBC the ‘seriously infectious virus’ is ‘putting some people very seriously in hospital, and some people are dying’.

‘I know personally more people who’ve been off sick with Covid in the last month than the whole of the pandemic put together,’ she said.

‘So although there is a balance between the economy and health, they’re not mutually exclusive – it’s not one or the other.’

But in a further sign that the Omicron variant appears to result in less severe disease, there were 8,474 patients in hospital with Covid yesterday compared with 19,277 on the same day last year.

The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months.

Environment Secretary George Eustice said the Government is keeping the level of Covid hospital admissions under ‘very close review’ after ministers decided there would be no new restrictions in England before the new year.

Mr Eustice acknowledged that infection rates from the new Omicron variant were rising but said there was evidence it was not resulting in the same level of hospital admissions as previous waves.

‘There is early encouragement from what we know in South Africa that you have fewer hospitalisations and that the number of days that they stay in hospital if they do go into hospital is also lower than in previous variants,’ he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

Clampdown now could have been catastrophic 

Commentary by Prof Philip Thomas; Visiting Academic Professor at the University of Bristol

Common sense has prevailed, at least for now. Faced with a blizzard of dire predictions and scarifying statistics, Boris Johnson and the Cabinet have held their nerve.

No new Covid restrictions will be introduced before the New Year.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid has sensibly urged people not to throw caution to the wind when enjoying parties on December 31 – but in England at least, parties are permitted.

That is immensely important. Another clampdown could have been catastrophic for society, the economy and for general mental health.

It would also have been based on a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics. When we focus on the worst case scenarios for the current wave, the situation might appear bleak.

Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London has warned of 10,000 hospital admissions a day. The reality is far from that – in fact, yesterday’s NHS figures show there were fewer than 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the whole of England. The actual total was 8,474.

It is never safe to base policy decisions on worst case scenarios.

In statistical models, the most pessimistic forecasts will be an extremely poor predictor of reality. Because of the spread of probable outcomes, we can be 97 per cent confident that whatever happens will be better than the worst prediction. That is not wishful thinking. It’s mathematics.

Some gloom-mongers, including a number who sit on the Government’s Sage committee, believe it’s always safer to plan for the very worst.

But that strategy can only work if the precautions are relatively painless. This is not the case with Covid restrictions, which have closed down society and the economy.

Our gross domestic product has still not recovered to where it was two years ago, before Covid struck. Without a strong economic rebound, more people are likely to be killed by the financial consequences of lockdown restrictions than ever died with Covid. 

The risk assessment method I have been developing at the University of Bristol, dubbed Judgment-value, proves the economy has to improve continuously if we and our children are to live healthier and longer lives.

Already, the cost of earlier lockdowns is mounting. We are seeing a backlog of NHS treatments for life-threatening diseases, as well as increased domestic abuse and disruptions to education. We cannot afford to exacerbate these problems.

It is all too easy to focus on those bleak ‘worst case scenarios’ and ignore more upbeat news. Shortly before Christmas, the UK Health Security Agency revealed England was experiencing between 50 and 70 per cent fewer hospitalisations with Omicron than it had with Delta.

There was further good news in the weekend’s results released yesterday, with hospitalisations showing little increase. In London, admissions on Christmas Day were lower than two days earlier at 364, down from 390.

Some people might have been concerned to hear just before Christmas that the number of people with an active infection in England rose to over 1.5 million in mid-December.

But this was expected. Thanks to the number-crunching power of Bristol’s Predictor Corrector Coronavirus Filter (PCCF), that’s close to the figure I predicted in the Daily Mail.

The total number of active infections may well exceed three million at the height of the wave, according to the PCCF, and we may see the daily number admitted to hospital peaking at around 3,000 in England.

But that’s well below the 4,130 we saw at the peak in January – and daily deaths should stay well below what we saw in January too.

See more here: dailymail.co.uk

Header image: PA

Bold emphasis added

Please Donate Below To Support Our Ongoing Work To Expose The Lies About COVID19

PRINCIPIA SCIENTIFIC INTERNATIONAL, legally registered in the UK as a company incorporated for charitable purposes. Head Office: 27 Old Gloucester Street, London WC1N 3AX. 

Trackback from your site.