Excess Deaths in Sweden and England

Written by Joel Smalley on November 7, 2022. Posted in Current News

Sweden’s moderate response appears to have fared better for its citizens than England, perhaps providing the best evidence yet that COVID was no worse than a bad flu.

This is the second report in the series introduced here: principia-scientific

Sweden

I have already established that Sweden and England are extremely comparable in terms of mortality. No surprise then that COVID-era mortality in Sweden follows more-or-less the same pattern as England, peaking in June 2020 at 7,000 excess deaths, followed by an expected deficit.

Conversely, consistent with many other analyses, Sweden’s relative death toll during natural COVID is quite lower than England, registering a mere one times more than the average weekly excess deaths compared to England’s 1.8 times more during the original, epidemic wave in spring 2020.

After an almost identical return in the autumn, COVID is over in Sweden, “in spite” of the mRNA campaign.

Why “in spite”?

Because, Sweden did not start the experiment until a few weeks after England and did not go at it anywhere near as hard:

By the time COVID is well and truly over on 14th March 2021 in Sweden, they have only got the toxin into eight percent of the adult population, compared to 37 percent of the English.

OK, so they got a little extra death at the tail end (between March and May 2021 when they were playing jab catch-up) that they probably could have avoided if they hadn’t jabbed anyone at all.

But all the same, it looks like the Swedish government limited the damage they did “fighting” the virus with NPIs as well as with the pharma cash cow product simply by not doing as much as England did.

Or did they?

I thought I would overlay the two series using this new excess death model just to be sure.

And, sure enough, using the relative scales determined by the data up to the end of 2019, plotting Sweden on one axis and England on the other, it is clear that England suffered substantially higher peaks in both spring 2020 and autumn 2021. In spring 2020, England had the more aggressive NPIs. In winter 2021, England had the more aggressive jab campaign.

Sweden’s response, such as it was, still resulted in better outcomes relative to its own self-control (which is probably the best methodology to silence all the data deniers).

Contrary to prior years when England and Sweden had very comparable excess mortality distributions, the outcome during both major waves of COVID was demonstrably worse for England.

Verdict:

After a couple of very soft mortality seasons, Sweden’s COVID death toll registered the same excess as the 2018 flu season, albeit over a shorter time frame1.

Sweden’s COVID measures appear to have had little impact either way and by not jabbing aggressively in the midst of circulating virus during the high mortality, winter season, Sweden’s mRNA experiment appears to have had limited negative impact as well.

Note

No, I haven’t deliberately ignored 2022 season because Sweden is back to normal and England is doing much better.

I am confident that there are tens of thousand missing deaths from the English dataset due to the woeful way deaths are recorded in England.

It might take another six months before we know the full extent of English deaths in 2022 while we wait on the Chief Coroner and the ONS to pull their fingers out.

If we zoom in on the last season (chart above), it seems to me that the two countries set off on the same expected mortality up until mid Dec 2021 before Sweden diverges upwards.

If my suspicions are correct and England will ultimately publish deaths that remain consistent with Swedish reporting, there will be an additional 40,000 English deaths to come.

If they don’t come, it could well be due to the extra deaths pulled forward in spring 2020 and winter 2021.

Given the disregard for data integrity and optimal public health, don’t expect any special attention from them.

But, when the data is finally complete, I think a special comparative analysis of Sweden and England mortality will nail the official narrative coffin (NPIs and vaccines saved millions of lives) firmly shut.

References

See more here substack.com

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