Death rate in England is lowest since records began in 2001
Image: Office for National Statistics
Just 851.2 people per 100,000 died last month – the lowest figure since the ONS started recording mortality rates in 2001.
The proportion of people dying in England fell in April to its lowest level since records began, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.
Just 851.2 people per 100,000 died last month – the lowest figure since the ONS started recording mortality rates in 2001. At the height of the first wave of the Covid pandemic last April, death rates were 1,859 per 100,000.
The latest figures show that 38,899 people died in April – 6.1 per cent fewer than the five-year average.
Just 2.4 per cent of all deaths mentioned Covid on the death certificate, a 77.6 per cent decrease from March and the largest month-on-month decline since the pandemic began.
The new data provide more evidence that the NHS is in little danger of being overwhelmed in the near future, with deaths from most causes lower than normal. Covid is now the ninth most common cause of death in England and Wales, behind conditions including heart disease, dementia, several cancers and influenza.
Latest figures from King’s College London’s symptom tracker app also suggest that Covid case rates are flat, despite the Indian variant making up an increased percentage of cases.
Last week, the ZOE Covid Study team estimated that there were 2,750 new infections per day in the UK, compared with 2,782 the previous week.
Experts believe the risk of a Covid infection is currently one in 17,205, falling to one in 31,184 after a first vaccine and one in 41,579 after a second.
Although there are localised hotspots in which the Indian variant is spreading, it is not leading to rising case numbers overall, according to King’s data, which tends to be a more up-to-date measure of the state of the pandemic than other figures.
Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College, said the team was monitoring the variant closely, but there was nothing to suggest that the NHS was in danger of being overrun or that the lockdown release would need to be postponed.
“So far, we see only localised outbreaks or hotspots,” he said.
“Not only in Bedford and Bolton, which we saw a week ago, but our data shows Newport in Wales, Glasgow and neighbouring areas like East Dunbartonshire or Lanarkshire in Scotland, Aberdeen, Leeds and neighbouring authorities like Kirklees and Wakefield too. We noticed the same trend previously with outbreaks of the South African and Brazilian variants, but these remained local and didn’t translate into wider cases countrywide.
We also saw similar rates last summer in the Midlands, which never produced widespread outbreaks. I expect to see rates stay at similar levels for a while. There’s no clear evidence yet that the new Indian variant is significantly worse than the old Kent one. While the outbreaks remain localised and UK numbers are steady and most cases appear mild, it’s highly unlikely to cause the NHS to be overrun or stop us coming out of lockdown. So no need to panic, but do stay vigilant and keep logging with the ZOE Covid Study app to stay ahead of the curve and help us monitor outbreaks like these.“
Prof Andrew Hayward, an infectious diseases expert at University College London, said he was “very concerned” about the variant and believed it could cause a third wave.
However, Prof Steven Riley, whose group at Imperial College has been monitoring infection rates since the start of the pandemic, said it only looked as though the Indian variant was replacing the Kent mutation in some areas.
“That’s all we know. What we don’t yet know is exactly how much more transmissible it might be,” he said.
The latest update from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), also suggests admissions and deaths continue to decline. Based on NIESR modelling, by June 21, when step four of the lockdown easing is due, cases are expected to have fallen to 1,200 a day, admissions to below 100 and daily deaths to well below 25.
Dr Craig Thamotheram, NIESR senior economist in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting, said: “It is reassuring that the weekly case rate per 100,000 is smaller than 50 in all regions and nations. However, evident localised outbreaks have the potential to seed a new wave. The extent to which these flare ups are contained will be key in the weeks ahead.”
Latest data show Bolton has seen a big increase in vaccination rates in the under-50s, with 29.5 per cent now having a jab compared to 29.3 in England – an increase of 4.5 per cent. Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report shows 71.8 per cent of people in England now have antibodies to Covid, either through vaccination or a prior infection.
See more here: telegraph.co.uk
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Alan
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Isn’t this what we should expect to see? Many of those dying with Covid are elderly and did not have long to live anyway.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Alan,
I amend your statement (with which I totally agree) a bit: “Isn’t this what we should expect to see? Many of those dying with Covid are UNHEALTHY elderly and did not have long to live anyway.”
Have a good day, Jerry
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Allan Shelton
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Quote….. “The new data provide more evidence that the NHS is in little danger of being overwhelmed in the near future, with deaths from most causes lower than normal. Covid is now the NINTH most common cause of death in England and Wales, behind conditions including heart disease, dementia, several cancers and influenza.”
This, to me, is proof that Covid-19 was no Pandemic, just a Scamdemic.
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Andrew Pilkington
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ONS data also proves that all they have done is rename the flu in order to terrify everyone into taking part in their Worldwide Human DNA Experiments. It’s all Illegal, in any uncorrupted Justice System, but our lot will just keep moving the Goalposts and changing the Rules and Laws, to suit the whims of their Masters. Any decent Mainstream Media would have quashed all this COVID-19 nonsense by exposing the PCR “Tests” for what they are and especially exposed the use of FALSE POSITIVES to create imaginary “Cases” in order to keep this SCAMdemic going and the gullible Terrified and Compliant.
But, are “thetelegraph” going to be the ones to give the Breaking News about the “Hydrogel and “Ethylene Oxide Gas” (EO) Contaminated PCR “Tests” Kits, which our beloved Government Muppets are rushing out amongst the General Population?
Just take a look at a recent Facebook post by former PC “Mark Sexton”.
Now that is a Whopping Story to break, but I doubt any Mainstream Media Company has the backbone to handle that Explosive Topic, especially without trying to discredit him or resort to Ridicule?
Thanks 🙂
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Andrew Pilkington
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Sorry, I should have added that: Isn’t it a strange coincidence that so many have been “vaccinated” (yes, I know) in Bolton and yet they are worst hit and the fact that Brazil, Argentina and South Africa, are the 3 locations of the AstraZeneca Trials?
I think I have that right, it’s been a while since I came across it, if someone would care to correct me, please?
Whistleblowers are saying that some NHS are being overwhelmed at present, is by people who have been injected and are suffering from Adverse Drug Reactions ( “ADR’s”). I would appreciate knowing more, as my 12x Weekly Hospital appointment was changed to 5x Calendar Months last week, “Due to unforseen circumstances”. I’ve asked, but too soon to hear back, yet.
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Ken Hughes
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All this means is that the elderly have recently been culled, so the que for the pearly gates is temporarily reduced in number. There’s a gap, but don’t worry, things will soon get back to normal.
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Ken Hughes
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….or maybe they won’t if the vaccines do their job.
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Tom
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Strange indeed. I would make the case that these “death counts” are being manipulated to lower than normal levels so that they can come back and claim the “injections” are working wonders. That they are saving people from every type of death…all for the purpose of trying to convince the non-injected that these poisons are safe and effective. Truthfully, and apart from what big pharma tells us, we won’t know that until 2030. I will gladly wait for another 10 years.
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