Data Tampering of Excess Death Calculation in English Care Homes
This morning I sat making notes for my next push on time series modelling of vaccine harm/benefit which fell into ambiguity in part 9 of my Vaccines & Death series.
Sometimes you just have to take your head out of the problem to start seeing sense again.
With the prospect of heavy analysis looming next week I took the opportunity to glance at my big pad of things to consider and noted ‘care home deaths’ sitting in the #1 slot.
Data were downloaded from ONS’ ‘death’ servers as per usual and so I updated my spreadsheet and extended the graphs. Nothing looked out of the ordinary (which I found to be extraordinary) so I cogitated with my cuppa that had gone stone cold by this time.
My mind wandered back to my accidental discovery of ONS’ baseline shenanigans for all cause death for which they adopted a sneaky strategy for reducing excess deaths for the beginning of 2022 by using the ‘hot’ baseline period 2017 – 2021 rather than the COVID-neutral period 2015 – 2019 (as they had done for calculation of excess deaths for 2021). Here is my original article.
With suspicions aroused I threw current ONS baseline data for all cause care home deaths for England into a time series plot to see what we could see.
Since the years 2021 and 2022 are tainted with pandemic-driven elevated rates the 5-year baseline for these exceptional years should mirror the neutral baseline used for 2020; in plain English all three series should be pretty much identical.
Except they are not. Take a look down the barrel of this smoking gun:
The thick red baseline for 2020 represents a COVID-neutral situation and is the one that should be used for calculation of excess death during 2021 and 2022
Note the elevated counts for week 1 through 12 – these are going to reduce excess death in English care homes at the start of each year by a significant margin.
Also note how the curves eventually homogenise, with the baseline for 2021 exactly mirroring the baseline for 2020 from week 12 onward.
Somebody has made a deliberate decision to fiddle the data like this because there’s no way this could happen other than through manual intervention.
I am forced to conclude that the ONS are throwing calculation of excess deaths in England’s care homes at the start of each year by offering up a wholly inappropriate, and patently doctored time series.
Given the seniority and experience of the officers involved I cannot believe this is down to sheer ignorance.
See more here substack.com
Header image: The New Economy
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Tom
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The entire fake pandemic has been data-tampered since day one.
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