Confirming CO2’s non-involvement in global warming
Global warming-cooling mimic solar variations (150-year delay), absolving CO2, portending 50 cooler years, confirming NASA-HadCRUT inflated 1980-2020 warming
Published high-resolution graphs of solar activity and Greenland temperatures (proxies; Wu, Vinther) of the last 9,000 years (9ky) strongly correlate visually, with clearly matching spikes and centennial-millennial trends (Slide 2).
(Contrast Marcott graph of global Holocene temperature, spikeless due to lower resolution and smoothing, Slide 2 inset). The correlation is even clearer after back-tilting (de-trending) the temperature graph to compensate for long-term cooling by Earth’s declining obliquity (Slide 2 inset).
An obvious temperature delay of 100-200y (Slide 2) is attributable to oceanic thermal inertia (vast heat capacity, slow AMOC global circulation; cf. Abdussamatov 15-20y theoretical lag). The lag aligns, for example, the 8.2-kiloyear event cooling-warming couplet (nadir 6210BC) with an exceptional solar grand minimum-maximum couplet (nadir 6435BC); and aligns Modern Warming (from 1850; ongoing recovery from Sun-driven Little Ice Age) with the Sun’s 1695-1958AD surge,
Likewise the strongest in 9ky (Slide 2). Focusing on the last 1ky, solar output (Brehm) matches global temperature (PAGES2k); 150-200y lag aligns the Little Ice Age (1440-1920) and the Wolf-through-Maunder solar minima (1270-1720; Slide 3). Lastly, the NASA and HadCRUT near-identical global thermometer graphs mimic the smoothed 1700-2020 sunspot series; 140-160y lag aligns their respective modern surges and multi-decade downturns (e.g. 1795-1820 Dalton Minimum equates to 1945-75 cooling; Slide 4).
Exposing NASA-HadCRUT inaccuracy, the correlation predicts roughly equal warmth for the1930–50 (‘dustbowl’) and 2000–20 warm spells (based on equality of their corresponding solar ‘humps’; Slide 4), but NASA-HadCRUT claim 2000-2020 was far (~0.7C°) warmer (Slides 5, 6); this despite their own Arctic differential being less (~0.5C°; Slide 5), violating polar amplification.
The 2000-2020warm interval follows (and continues) 20yof land (surface-air) warming supposedly twice as fast as sea-surface temperature (SST; Slides 4, 6); inexplicably this began abruptly (1980; Slide 6).
Such land-sea decoupling is impossible because SST dictates average land-air temperature (Humlum; presumably by advection of sea air warmed [or cooled] by the sea), as evidenced also by their equality (within error) up until 1980 (Slide 6). This confirms NASA-HadCRUT inflated post-1980 land temperatures by improper urbanization adjustments (McKitrick, Richard, Heller, Connolly). In the entire 9ky, the only resemblance between CO2 and temperature is their simultaneous surge from ~1850 (Industrial Revolution onset) (Slide 7).
But CO2 is accelerating, unlike warming (except manipulated land graph, Slide 6); and CO2 does not express the 1880-1910 and 1945-75 coolings, or the 1998-2012 hiatus (Slide 7); nor does it express any of the pre-1850 warmings that rivaled Modern Warming’s rate (Slide 7). Thus our Sun drives climate (Denton); CO2’s theoretical greenhouse-warming potential, already (at 400pm) reduced “well into the saturation regime” (van Wijngaarden), must be cancelled by negative feedbacks (Higgs1, Higgs2). Knowing oceanic lag is ~150y enables temperature prediction.
Cooling in progress since the2016 warm peak (equates to 1870 peak of Sunspot Cycle 11, Slide 4) will last another 5-10y (Cycle 11 to 12 sharp decline). Relative coolness will ensue for 50-60y (weak Cycles 12-16). Subsequent warming (rise from Cycle 16) will climax ~2110 (~150y after Cycle 19 sunspot superpeak of 1958) or 2140 (Cycle 22 magnetic superpeak 1991), depending on which solar property drives climate (Svensmark).
Maximum temperatures will possibly exceed those of 6600-5600BC (Slide 2). Decades of cooling will follow (ongoing solar decline since 1958/1991; Slide 4).
See more here: researchgate.net
Header image: Solar Influences Data Analysis Center
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Doug Harrison
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This is already happening as the growing season is closing in from both ends around the world. So far better growing techniques are masking this. I cannot offer empirical proof of this but I’m sure better brains than mine can.
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Bevan
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There is no statistically significant correlation between satellite lower tropospheric temperature and CO2 concentration. However there is a clear correlation between the time rate of change of CO2 concentration and temperature indicating that temperature determines the generation of CO2, that is, d(CO2)/dt is proportional to temperature. This is supported by the data showing that the integral over time of temperature matches the CO2 time series.
Further evidence is the fact that CO2 change lags temperature change so the later CO2 change cannot possibly be the cause of the earlier temperature change.Also, the seasonal variation of both variables is in opposition. During the heat of summer, the CO2 concentration decreases partly due to the Spring time growth of vegetation. During the cold of winter, the CO2 concentration increases due, presumably, to the decay of plant and animal life forms from bacterial action. ( I am not a biologist, nor am I a robot )
Calculation of the CO2 absorption spectrum shows that for an average surface temperature of 15.5 deg.C, 99.8% of the photons that could be absorbed by atmospheric CO2 molecules would be in the 15 micron wavelength band. This represents the heating one may experience by standing out in the ice and snow of Antarctica on the odd day when the temperature falls to -80 deg.C.
Fourier analysis of satellite lower troposphere temperature even shows the 27.1 day draconic and 29.5 day synodic periods of the Moon as it passes between the Earth and the Sun, the major source of heating.
At the Mauna Loa Observatory, the monthly CO2 concentration had an average rate of increase over the 63 year period from March 1958 to August 2021 of 1.59 ppm pa. For the 5 year period March 1958 to March 1963 the rate was 0.68 ppm pa and for the 5 year period August 2016 to August 2021 the rate was 2.67N ppm pa, that is, the rate of increase has steadily accelerated over time to be almost four times greater than it was 58 years earlier.
Possibly the CO2 concentration will continue increasing until such time as the temperature is low enough for CO2 not to be generated. That may be a temperature of zero degrees Celsius when water freezes and is no longer available to support life forms.
The fact that the UN ‘CO2 causes global warming’ scam continues is a sad reflection on the honesty and integrity of humanity.
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