Coal Continues To Dominate in China and India
Since January the benchmark for coal has doubled. And over the past few weeks, China and India have announced plans to increase their domestic coal production by a combined total of 700 million tons per year. For perspective, US coal production this year will total about 600 million tons.
In April, China announced it will increase coal output by 300 million tons this year. Last month, India said it aims to increase domestic coal production by more than 400 million tons by the end of next year. (2)
Adding the 700 million tons of new coal that China and India will be mining to the amount they are now producing leads to some staggering numbers. By the end of next year, China will be producing about 4.4 billion tons of coal per year and India will be mining about 1.2 billion tons. Add those together and you get 5.6 billion tons of coal, which is more than 9 times the amount of coal that will be mined in the US this year. (2)
Coal power capacity will increase until 2030. So new plants are adding more capacity, not just replacing retirements. Last year saw retirements, in fact, slow down.
India, the world’s second largest producer, importer and consumer of coal after China, is planning to reopen more than 100 coal mines previously considered financially unsustainable, as a heatwave driven power crisis forces the world’s third biggest greenhouse gas emitter to double down on the fuel after months of low consumption. (3)
India has relaxed environmental compliance rules for coal mines seeking to ramp up production as power outages exacerbate a sweltering heat wave.
The government says it plans to increase domestic coal production to 1.2 billion tons in the next two years to support a post pandemic economic recovery. India’s coal needs are set to double by 2040. (4)
United States
While China is building coal plants around the world and India is re-opening coal mines, the United States is shuttering its coal fired power plants, despite having, by far, the world”s largest supply of coal.
In the US, The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds coal has been declining for well over a decade, but it’s projected it will be 24 percent of the power mix this year. (5)
America is in a fast pursuit toward achieving President Biden’s goal that ‘we are going to get rid of fossil fuels.’
The incremental coal production in India and China is exceeding whatever coal fired generation capacity has been retired in the US and Europe. (2)
References
1. “China ignores climate pledges, tops list in building new coal plants,” energycentral.com, April 27, 2022
2. Robert Bryce, “India and China coal production surging by 700 million tons per year: that’s greater than all US coal output,” realclearenergy.org, June 3, 2022
3. Nupur Anand and Sudarshan Varadhan, “India doubles down on coal as heatwave worsens power crisis,” reuters.com, May 6, 2022
4. Eric Worrall, Net zero? India plans to double coal use by 2040,” wattsupwiththat.com, May 11, 20224
5. Ben Geman, “Coal’s global staying power,” axios.com, April 27, 2022
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