I have just participated in a lengthy Twitter exchange with Marshall Shepherd (@DrShephard2013), a professor at the University of Georgia and President of the American Meteorological Society. The occasion for the exchange was Dr. Shepherd’s presentation yesterday at a Congressional Briefing sponsored by the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (his prepared remarks can be foundhere in PDF). The briefing focused on “the latest trends and scientific evidence related to the growing impacts associated with climate change.”
Three other scientists testified at the briefing, but I am not interested in what they had to say. Shepherd’s remarks are of interest because he is the President of a major scientific society. He was not at the briefing to present his personal opinions, but rather in his role as a leader and representative of the scientific community. Thus, in my view of the obligations of such a role, he had a duty to play it straight.
Unfortunately, as is so often a case when leaders in the climate science community find themselves before an audience of policy makers,on extreme events they go rogue, saying all sorts of things with little or no scientific basis. Even if the scientist includes many accurate statements in his/her remarks (such as the reality of significant risks of human-caused climate change), the presence ofhorsemeat ruins the lasagne.
As this wasbeing written Tuesday night, the area was being drenched by what looked remarkably like an April shower, with the temperature soaring into double digits. But when you step outside to pick up your paper this afternoon, the forecasters say you will be in a paradise … for polar bears.
So far, the winter of 2012-13 has featured temperatures both well above and the normal high of about –4º C. There have been few days when they were actually normal. While some experts are pointing to climate change as a pivotal factor in weather fluctuations, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist says temperature changes are par for the course.
“There’s a difference between climate and temperature,” explained David Phillips in an interview.
“The wild swings in temperature have had nothing to do with climate. It’s about where the winds come from.”
The recent warming trend, for example, was caused by breezes blowing in from the southern United States.
Times are moving fast and Science and Nature magazine can’t cope. Caught resting on their laurels these eminent mainstream publications have again been exposed as inept or biased when it comes to peer-reviewing the papers submitted to them.
The latest blow concerns the questionable peer review policies of these “top” journals. These denizens of academic publishing are being pulverized in the blogosphere for their inflexibility and conservatism more in keeping with the bygone era of traditional paper and print publishing. Signaling the revolution this week are astute analysts from various quarters. Leading Aussie science blogger, Jo Nova, reflects the mood in the climate science community lamenting:
“The peer review system has decayed to the point where the culture of the two “top” science journals virtually guarantees they will reject the most important research done today. It is the exact opposite of what we need to further human knowledge the fastest. Science and Nature are prestigious journals, yet they are now so conservative about ideas that challenge dominant assumptions, that they reject ground-breaking papers because those papers challenge the dominant meme, not because the evidence or the reasoning is suspect or weak.”
World-renowned sea level expert, Nils-Axel Mörner has come out to trash latest alarmist media claims that Bangladesh is facing serious flood risks due to man-made global warming. In particular, Dr. Mörner has denounced environmentalist, Bill McKibben who speaks of “30 million refugees” and Canada’s Sunday edition of the star.com for publishing a misleading article, ‘Bangladesh faces mass migration, loss of land from climate change.’
The story claims villages in much of rural southwest Bangladesh are suffering the ravages of climate change. The author of the piece, Raveena Aulakh, relies heavily on the junk science of Atiq Rahman, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Rahman blames Bangladesh’s woes on human emissions of carbon dioxide and insists raising taxes will stem the rising tides. “All this could happen faster because of lack of reduction of greenhouse gases,” says Rahman. “And even if we stopped now, it would take a lot of time for things to get better.”
But Dr. Mörner, famed for his scientific rebuttals of such claims is having none of it. He has issued a press statement (February 10, 2013) to denounce as bogus the article’s shabby “climate change” link to Cyclone Aila that wrought devastation on the subcontinent in 2009.
Mörner retorted that Cyclone Aila “had nothing to do with any sea level rise. It was just the destruction of one of those events hitting this coast so badly. Unfortunately, this is normal for this part of the world, and has always been so.” The real concern, says the sea level expert, should be the incessant chopping down of mangrove trees to clear space for shrimp farms which fuels soil erosion and increases the risk of flooding. As Mörner pointed out during the ‘Sealevelgate‘ scandal in 2001, politicized and cherry picked science “leads to confusion over cases such as Bangladesh, whose plight is the exact opposite of the one claimed by environmental lobbyists and the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change].”
Nonetheless, star.com writer, Raveena Aulakh sticks rigidly to the IPCC’s doomsaying narrative and cynically promotes the usual tired old claims about melting ice sheets, diminishing glaciers and man-made global warming.
If only Aulakh and other sensationalist publications would introduce a little more of the Mörner balance in their articles for he has already exposed the fraud and misunderstand about the subcontinent in a key article from 2011 in the Spectator. ‘Rising credulity,’ describes how Mörner visited and studied the Sundarban delta area in Bangladesh (pictured) and was able to observe clear evidence of coastal erosion, not sea level rises.
The truth about sea levels are that they have always been fluctuating and always will no matter what governments think they might do to control them. Indeed, there are well-documented and huge variations in sea levels, by as much as two meters, because, as is the way with Nature, they stubbornly refuse to maintain a constant level. Dr. Mörner describes the world’s oceans and seas as more akin to an “agitated bath where the water is slopping back and forth. This is a dynamic process.”
By contrast, independent scientists know full well that Bangladesh is cursed because of rain over the Himalayas, which is unconnected with the sea. “It is also cursed because of the cyclones which push water inland. Again, this has nothing to do with the sea, adds Mörner.
Sensationalist authors such as Atiq Rahman should, says Mörner, first check their facts with the world’s true experts on sea level. They can be found at the INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research) commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (of which Mörner is a former president), not with the discredited IPCC.
Current climate science totally neglects the enormous amounts of heat available inside the Earth. This seems reasonable since the measured heat flux through the oceanic crust is ~0,1 W/m2, and is absolutely dwarfed by the ~240 W/m2 average solar radiation that warms the Earth. Only the sun warms the Earth, no other heat source is considered and a Greenhouse Effect (GHE) is the only way to explain why our temperatures are ~33K above the generally accepted Effective Temperature for Earth of 255K.
To expose the error in this reasoning and see some real global warming we have to go back in time. Some 125 million years ago in what is now the Pacific Ocean perhaps the largest seismic event of the last 300 million years started. A Mantle Plume burst through the ocean floor, and some 100 million km3 glowing hot magma erupted into the Pacific. This is 1 km3 magma for every 14 km3 water in all the world’s oceans, capable of warming those oceans some 15-20K. The magma cooled down and formed what is known as the Ontong Java–Manihiki–Hikurangi Plateau (OJMHP) (1).
Not surprisingly we find very high temperatures following that period as is shown in the following reconstruction of deep ocean temperatures (2) (3) . (Notice these are DEEP ocean temperatures, not surface)
Unfortunately this reconstruction doesn’t go all the way back to 125 million years, so we can’t see if temperatures were even higher before the peak at ~83 million years. Since the creation of the OJMHP several similar but smaller events followed, explaining the sometimes rising deep ocean temperatures in a generally cooling trend.
According to this reconstruction it is obvious that between 80 and 90 million years ago the deep ocean temperatures where at least ~15K warmer than at present, and the deep oceans have on average been cooling down about 1K every 5 million years since then.
With a very much simplified model I’ll show how these major geological events in the distant past are still influencing our current temperatures.
Simple energy balance model
Assumptions:
– incoming solar energy is 240 W/m2 after reflection , only warming Earth’s surface – current average surface temperature is 290K (oceans, disregarding the continents).
Consider a small planet in outer space, no internal heat, fully covered with a floor heating system (FHS) to replace incoming solar energy. No heat from the FHS can escape to the inside of the planet.
And of course we can control the energy flowing to the FHS. With the FHS turned off the surface temperature of our little planet is ~2,7 K due to the Cosmic Background Radiation.
1) Turning on the heat, we begin with 0,1 W/m2, after stabilisation the surface temp is ~30K.
2) Next 240 W/m2, temperature stabilises at 255K, Earth’s generally accepted Effective Temperature, and 240 W/m2 is radiated to space.
3) More heat, 400 W/m2, temperature stabilising around 290K, and 400 W/m2 radiates to space.
Now we cover our little planet with an insulation blanket, with the same thermal resistance as our atmosphere, 290K on the inside results in 240 W/m2 loss at the outside. With the surface temperature at 290K and the blanket covering the planet, we can turn down the FHS to just 240 W/m2 and maintain the 290K for as long as we supply the same amount of energy as escapes on the outside of the insulation blanket.
Back to Earth. Note that only simple insulation (no back radiation heating or similar) is needed to explain the surface temperature, given the boost to 290K or higher by the creation of the OJMHP and that the energy budget is balanced. Recall that current climate science states that the atmosphere is even capable of WARMING the surface ~33K, so just maintaining current average surface temperatures should be an acceptable premise.
Since the peek temperature the deep oceans have been cooling down very slowly. Assuming all of the oceans had a temperature of 290K from surface to bottom at the time of the temperature peak, we see that most of that heat has already been lost to space, given the current average temperature of the deep oceans of ~275K. Every time the sun supplies less energy than escapes to space (eg Milankovitch cycles), the ocean’s surface cools down, lost heat is re-supplied by now warmer water from below and the deep oceans cool down.
This mechanism also explains the exceptionally stable temperatures on Earth. Excess incoming energy warms the surface layer, and increases outgoing radiation almost immediately. Shortage of incoming energy is buffered by the deep oceans enormous thermal mass.
Recently we started having Ice ages (last ~2.5 million years). Without a new Mantle Plume eruption Earth may well be heading towards a Snowball Earth situation. Interestingly the small 0.1 W/m2 heat flux through the oceans crust can warm all of the oceans 1K every ~5000 year when ice prevents heat loss at the surface. In this situation the small geothermal heat flux could actually be (part of) the explanation for the ending of an ice age.
Extending this setup to Earth’s early history we can envision a situation where the effect of a Faint Young Sun is offset by a much thinner crust, allowing a substantial heat flux plus a much more active Earth with many Mantle Plumes and other seismic events warming the already existing oceans.
Conclusion
With the inclusion of Geothermal Heat in the climate equation, the role of the atmosphere is simply that of an insulation blanket. The sun is barely able to prevent the cooling of planet Earth. With the diminishing amount of buffered heat in the deep oceans we are moving towards a colder period, unless a major re-heating by Geothermal Energy comes along. Obviously this is not a complete climate theory.
Most of the classical meteorology from before the CO2 hype is still valid. Milankovitch, Svensmark and many other theories and effects can co-exist on top of this basic climate setup. All this has serious implications for the role of CO2 and climate sensitivity, which may very well be slightly negative. Instead of worrying about humanity warming the planet, we should prepare for the Ice Age that is coming sooner or later, unless of course the next major undersea flood basalt saves the day.
The concept of Effective Temperature (Te) originates in astronomy, and is a rule of thumb calculation to estimate the radiative temperatures of planetary bodies in a solar system. For planets without atmosphere, no internal heat source and surface emissivity equal to 1 the Te is the whole story. All mentioned factors increase the “base” Te. See eg this site for more details.
Surprisingly the Te for the moon using albedo 0,11 is ~270K, but the actual average temperature is much LOWER (~197K). This means that either the moons albedo is massively higher (~0,75 iso 0,11) or there is a serious flaw in the way the Te’s are calculated. Let me show you that the Te for the moon is ~161K iso ~270K and for Earth ~151K iso the well-known 255K
Basically Te is arrived at by taking the surface temperature of a sun and calculating the remaining radiation (Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)) at the distance of the body under consideration. The amount of energy intercepted by a body is equal to the TSI times the cross-sectional area of the body. Since a sphere has 4 times the area of a circle, the TSI is divided by 4 to arrive at the average RADIATION/m2 on the body. A reduction for reflected radiation is also applied. So far so good. To arrive at the Te, the Stefan-Boltzmann formula (SB) is used on this number, assuming “black body” (BB) behaviour of the body. This last step is where things go wrong: using the average radiation to arrive at a temperature iso calculating different temperatures and then averaging them. You cannot average the input for a non-linear equation like the SB formula (fourth power) and expect a meaningful result. The following spread sheet demonstrates this nicely. It shows the radiation heating two identical BB plates, the resulting temperature using SB and the average temperature. Notice that in all cases the AVERAGE radiation is 240 W/m2.
The last example (480/0) represents the situation for heavenly bodies with only one sun, like our own planet Earth. A better way to calculate Te is to calculate the average radiation only for the sunny side of a body, calculate the average temperature for that side and THEN average with the dark side which has a radiative temperature of 0K, so dividing by 2 of the result for the sunny side will do. Since the original method didn’t use it, I also ignore the ~2,77K resulting from the cosmic background radiation.
Here are the Te calculations for the moon and earth:
I assume a TSI for both of 1364 W/m2, the moon reflects 11{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} and Earth 30{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117}.
Moon: (1364 W/m2 x 0,89)/2 = 607 W/m2 SB => 322K => Te = (322K + 0K)/2 = 161K
Earth: (1364 W/m2 x 0,70)/2 = 477 W/m2 SB => 303K => Te = (303K + 0K)/2 = 151K
All this means that a non-rotating grey body at our distance from the sun, without atmosphere, no internal heat and in radiative balance will have this average surface temperature. Change in any of the mentioned factors will give a higher ACTUAL temperature.
I’ll show that this reasoning is correct by looking at some temperature plots of the moon.
Some observations: – the temperature nicely follows radiation values during daytime, but doesn’t drop to 0K at night – apparently some heat storage takes place during the day that re-radiates during the night, given enough time most probably converging to the same temperature as Latitude 890 Winter – temperature at Latitude 890 Winter seems to converge to 30-40K given enough time without sunshine
My conclusion is that for some reason the moon has a “base” temperature of ~30K, most probably caused by internal heat. On deep crater floors near the poles temperatures as low as 25K are found. A heat flow of ~100mW/m2 would be enough to explain this temperature. At the poles Earthshine is an unlikely candidate.
So the moon behaves reasonably well like a BB, except: – it reflects some of the radiation (=> making it a “grey body”) – it rotates and some heat storage is taking place – its “no radiation” temperature is not 0K, but ~25-40K
With its “base” temperature of ~25K, some leftover heat from the previous “day” and the sun adding the rest the average measured moon temperature of ~197K can be easily explained.
Back to Earth: The correct Te for Earth of 151K and consequently the Greenhouse Effect being ~139K iso ~35K leaves us with the problem of explaining Earths average surface temperature of ~290K. Is CO2 even more powerful than previously thought? Or is there a much more plausible explanation?
Professor Alexander’s comprehensive and groundbreaking new handbook ‘Analytical methods for water resource development and management‘ is available as free public resource created thanks to a donation of R200 000 from South Africa’s Water Research Commission. It details analytical methods for the development and management of water supplies and provides guidance to policymakers, researchers and the general public.
On the front of the handbook is an illustration on that sets the story. Professor Alexander explains:
This is part of Raphael’s famous fresco (wall painting) titled the School of Athens in the Vatican. I had the privilege of studying it during WWII when we had plenty of time to spare. The theme of the fresco is Philosophy and this part of the fresco shows Euclid teaching mathematics to a group of enthusiastic pupils. He has a pair of dividers symbolising measurement and is pointing to a visual image on a slate. His studies have enabled us to measure distances from a point on earth to a point on the moon with a high degree of accuracy. But we still cannot predict future rainfall and river flow other than in probabilistic terms. This is the difference between accurate mathematical descriptions and broad probabilistic methods that we have so much difficulty in mastering.
Alexander continues:
The issues covered in a handbook are of extreme national and possibly international importance. The problem is that I discuss the climate change issue in passing and demonstrate with a high degree of confidence that the observed multi-year, widespread occurrence of floods and droughts occur synchronously with variations in the global receipt and poleward distribution of solar energy. There is not an atom of evidence that they are the consequence of climate change.
Water demands will exceed resources
Here in South Africa, as well as in many other countries on the African continent with dry climates the demands will soon exceed the available resources. This will not happen suddenly. At first rare, major droughts will be the problem. But as the demand increases even the frequent minor droughts will result in the imposition of restrictions. We have already entered this period here in South Africa.
Looking into the future we will have to develop a greater understanding of the numerical properties of multi-year sequences of river low, as well as of the isolated high flows that come to our rescue when they restore the water volume in the empty dams. Immediately the concept of multi-year river flows comes into the analyses it will be like opening a Pandora’s Box of issues that have to be addressed. These are detailed in the handbook.
On the demand side, the components are also becoming more complex. Until very recently the principal demands were agricultural (food production), urban and industrial demands. Now the environmental concerns have to be accommodated. How will they be accommodated in the numerical analyses?
On top of all this, the climate change issue has become a major interest. Briefly, the theory is that increasing discharges of carbon dioxide into the global atmosphere will cause atmospheric temperatures to rise. This in turn will result in increases in frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. The problem is that there is a strong debate among the proponents of climate change regarding the global temperature changes but not a single example of increases in floods and droughts. There is no way whatsoever that climate change scientists will be able to provide information on the multi-year properties of the hydro-meteorological processes required for water resource analyses.
Instead of accepting my invitation that we get around the table to discuss these important issues, I have been subjected to personal vilification and refusal to accept my papers for publication. This includes the tactic of deliberately delaying the publication of my handbook, the original version of which has been gathering dust on the shelves of the Water Research Commission ever since February 2010.
Recommendation
As a recognized expert in his field Professor Alexander has increasing concerns regarding the welfare of the poor and disadvantaged people of South Africa and elsewhere in the world. He insists his handbook addresses and resolves these issues in the public domain.
“My recommendation is that those institutions that appreciate the dangers that lie ahead and the urgent need to develop measures to accommodate them, should as a matter of great urgency organise a multi-day event at minimum cost to discuss these issues and provide measures to accommodate them,” says Alexander.
Forecasters often use unscientific computer models
by Prof. J. Scott Armstrong
The science of forecasting is complex. After 50 years spent studying the issue, I have found there is plenty of experimental evidence that in complex, uncertain situations, experts cannot forecast better than those with little expertise. In 1980, MIT Technology Review published my “Seer-sucker Theory”: “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.” Since 1980, research has provided more evidence for this surprising theory, especially Philip Tetlock’s 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment.”
Forecasts of dangerous man-made global warming rely heavily on expert judgments. Is the global warming alarm movement another example of the seer-sucker phenomenon? If so, what is the scientific approach to climate forecasting?
In the 1990s, I organized an international group of 39 scientists from various disciplines to summarize principles for a scientific approach to forecasting. The principles are based mostly on experimental studies on what works best in given situations. Some, such as the principle of full disclosure, are based on commonly accepted standards. The findings were translated into a list of 139 scientific principles and published in the book “Principles of Forecasting” in 2001. The principles are available at forecastingprinciples.com, and they are revised as new evidence becomes available. This site includes a freeware package that allows anyone to audit forecasting procedures.
In 2007, I along with Kesten Green from the University of South Australia, published an audit of the procedures used by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce “projections” of global warming. The IPCC authors used computer projections derived from some scientists’ expert judgments. They call the projections “scenarios” (i.e., stories). As the authors admit, they are not forecasts, yet they are used as such. The audit showed that when the IPCC procedures are assessed as if they were forecasting procedures, they violated 72 out of 89 relevant scientific forecasting principles.
What does scientific forecasting tell us about global temperatures over the next century?
In 2009, Mr. Green, Willie Soon of the HarvardSmithsonian Center for Astrophysics and I conducted a forecasting validation study using data from 1850 through 2007. We showed that a simple model of no trend in global mean temperatures for horizons of one to 100 years ahead provided forecasts that were substantially more accurate than the IPCC’s 0.03 degrees Celsius per year projections. For horizons of 91 to 100 years, the IPCC’s warming projection had errors 12 times larger than those from our simple model. Our own forecasting procedures violated only minor evidence-based principles of forecasting, and it did not rely on expert judgment about the trend. Scientific forecasts since that 2009 paper, described in our latest working paper, assess those minor deviations from the principles, and the results support our earlier findings.
Have there been similar cases in the past where leading scientists and politicians have concluded that the environment faces grave perils? In an ongoing study, we have identified 26 alarmist movements that were similar to the current man-made global warming alarm (e.g., population growth and famine in the 1960s, and global cooling in the 1970s). In all cases, human activity was predicted to cause environmental catastrophe and harm to people. Despite strong support from leading scientists, none of the alarmist movements relied on scientific forecasting methods. The government imposed regulations in 23 of the 25 alarms that involved calls for government intervention. None of the alarming forecasts turned out to be correct. Of the 23 cases involving government interventions, none were effective, and 20 caused net harm.
Policy on climate change rests on a three-legged stool of forecasts. First, it is necessary to have valid and reliable scientific forecasts of a strong, persistent trend in temperatures. Second, scientific forecasts need to show that the net effects of the trend in temperatures will be harmful. Third, scientific forecasts need to show that each proposed policy (e.g., a policy that polar bears require special protection because of global warming) would provide a net benefit relative to taking no action. A failure of any leg invalidates policy action.
Since 2007, we have searched for scientific forecasts that would support the three-legged stool of climate policy. We have been unable to find a single scientific forecast for any of the three legs — the stool currently has no support.
Two ways to encourage unity on the climate change issue would be to insist that forecasts be provided for all costs and benefits, and that all forecasting procedures abide by scientific principles. If validated principles are not included in the current forecasts, they should be added. Until we have scientific forecasts, there is no basis for unified action to prevent global warming — or cooling. Rational climate policies cannot rely on seers, no matter how many of them, how smart they are or how much expertise they possess.
J. Scott Armstrong is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and author of “Long-Range Forecasting” (Wiley-Interscience, 1985).
In a damning new study Aussie climatologists are shown to have made false and unsupported claims to stoke up alarm over man-made global warming.
Respected unpaid climate analyst, Malcolm Roberts, of Brisbane, Australia compiled the ‘CSIROh! Report‘ on the invitation of ABC Radio’s Steve Austin. Across 29 pages Roberts details a litany of evidence proving that the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia’s national science agency, corruptly and unlawfully misrepresented science, climate and Nature.
Austin asked of Roberts, “Please read through the Australian scientific paper and identify where you believe the CSIRO data has been falsified or is wrong.” To complete his task Roberts engaged in detailed correspondence with CSIRO’s Chief Executive Dr. Megan Clark and CSIRO’s Group Executive-Environment Dr. Andrew Johnson; extensive analysis and research of CSIRO reports and discussions with former CSIRO scientists including former chief research scientist Professor Garth Paltridge.
With evidence presented by the above authorities Roberts put Aussie government’s climate science under the microscope to expose how bias and propaganda misled the public to support the government’s tax on carbon dioxide (CO2). Even-handedly Roberts concedes, “CSIRO has many fine people and a proud heritage. In areas outside climate it appears to have capability and credibility. That is threatened by CSIRO’s politicization.” But, critically, his findings reveal that CSIRO had no empirical scientific evidence whatsoever that human CO2 caused warming (see Appendix 2). Instead, the reports shows a dearth of actual evidence but the policies so far enacted are implicated in causing the needless deaths of more than 40 million people, mainly in Third World regions.
Four Failures to Find Fault
The key litmus test applied by the study was the requirement that CSIRO’s science should provide “yes” answers to these four key questions:
1. Is global ATMOSPHERIC temperature warming unusually in either amount or rate
and is it continuing to rise?
2. Does the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in air control or determine Earth’s temperature?
3. Does human CO2 production determine the level of CO2 in air?
4. Is warming catastrophic or even damaging?
Roberts, who also provides research for the Galileo Movement, demonstrates that CSIRO failed to show any actual “causal relationships” to validate even one “yes” answer. On the contrary, Roberts identified evidence that shows CSIRO scientists used taxpayer funds rather to advocate for global governance at United Nations (UN) conferences than evince empirical data to support their position. Roberts says, “This is consistent with CSIRO’s actions supporting implementation of UN Agenda 21, the UN’s campaign pushing global governance. It bypassed Australia’s parliament and people and threatens Australia’s sovereignty and our personal freedoms.”
What the study shows in answer to those four key questions is a very different reality as follows:
1. Global atmospheric temperatures peaked in 1998. Temperatures have since been flat
with every year since colder than in 1998. Since the start of atmospheric temperature
measurement in 1958 temperatures cooled slightly from 1958 to 1976. A sudden small
2. Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in air are a consequence of temperature, not a cause.
This is the reverse of UN IPCC, CSIRO and government claims. It applies throughout
Earth’s history and over every duration. It’s true seasonally and long-term;
3. Nature alone determines levels of CO2 in air. This is the reverse of UN IPCC, CSIRO
and government claims. It means that cutting or increasing human CO2 production
cannot affect CO2 levels in air. It’s useless to cut human CO2 production;
4. Warmer periods in Earth’s history are highly beneficial to people, humanity, civilization
and the natural environment. This is the opposite of UN IPCC, CSIRO and government
claims. Warmer periods are scientifically classified as optimums.
As a result, this damning analysis, says Roberts, shows that CSIRO scientists are deeply enmeshed in producing corrupt UN IPCC reports. The evidence shows the IPCC colluded with CSIRO to enlist contributing scientists of various rank and to have papers referenced and presumably act as reviewers. Without applying any safeguards, CSIRO endorsed UN IPCC reports despite those reports being demonstrably corrupt and pushing a political agenda. UN IPCC contributors and officials are shown to have bypassed and at times prevented scientific peer-review. “As a method of quality assurance, the process of peer-review is now worthless” says the Roberts report.
Evidence reveals that all four UN IPCC reports to national governments and media—1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007—contradict empirical scientific evidence and provide no logical scientific reasoning for their core claim that human CO2 caused, causes or will cause global warming. “The corruption is pervasive, systemic and driven by a political agenda to achieve a political outcome,” says Roberts. Empirical scientific evidence and discussion in Appendix 4 reveals corruption of ground-based temperature data and of CO2 data used by the UN IPCC and CSIRO.The propaganda relied upon by alarmists is ostensibly that collated by former U.S. Vice President, Al Gore, shows Appendix 3.
Major international banking firm Merrill Lynch is implicated in the climate shenanigans. (Appendix 6). They and other international banks are shown to profit enormously from trading in CO2 credits. This relationship raises perceptions and questions about the opportunity for conflicts of interest.
Evidence Proves Natural Forces, not Humans Drive our Climate
This telling Australian report lays out in black and white that our atmosphere is not warming, much less unusually. “Fluctuations since 1958 reveal modest natural cyclic temperature variation.” While ground-based rural measurements reveal the same since 1890. In Appendix 4 it is shown that the strongest natural factors proven by empirical scientific evidence to control global climate. They are El Nino, La Nina and other regional ocean-atmosphere decadal cycles. Scientists have identified many factors driving climate. These include galactic, solar system, solar, planetary and lunar cycles ranging from 150 million years to 11 years. Strong drivers include:
• Solar: (1) variations in sun’s solar output; (2) Output of solar particles; (3) Sun’s magnetic field polarity and strength;
• Water vapour: (1) atmospheric water content; (2) Cloud cover;
• Cyclic regional decadal circulation patterns such as North American Oscillation and the southern Pacific ocean’s El Nino together with their variation over time;
The above natural drivers are either omitted from, or downplayed in erroneous unvalidated computerized numerical models used by the UN. CSIRO has thereby used deception dressed up as science to cede sovereignty over Australian science to an unscientific and corrupt foreign political organisation pushing a global political agenda. “CSIRO is thus abetting systemic and pervasive documented corruption of science,” says Roberts.
Tellingly, the prestigious Inter Academy Council’s (IAC) August 2010 review of the UN IPCC showed that there were “crippling deficiencies” in UN IPCC processes and procedures that should have sounded alarm bells that CSIRO is supporting implementation of UN Agenda 21, the greatest threat to Australian sovereignty.
Roberts invites readers to examine the evidence on offer in this new study and to verify for themselves that CSIRO has misled the media. He points to three key falsehoods that any objective examination of the available scientific proves. They are:
1. Human CO2 controls and determines global temperature and climate. False;
2. There is an overwhelming consensus of scientists supporting that claim. False;
3. Catastrophic consequences will result at some unspecified future date from human disruption of global climate: sea level rise, extreme weather, floods, drought, snowfall, fires, ocean pH (alkalinity), disease, species extinction, … All false.
“Through the National Press Club and media, CSIRO misled the people and parliament of Australia. CSIRO has been actively engaged in UN IPCC corruption of climate and science, “ concludes the Brisbane climate analyst. How Steve Austin, the listeners of ABC radio and other Australian citizens react to these damning findings remains to be seen.
Something’s amiss at the Department of Interior. Eight government scientists were recently fired or reassigned after voicing concerns to their superiors about faulty environmental science used for policy decisions. Which begs the question, “Are some government agencies manipulating science to advance political agendas?”
Fictional book authors operate in a convenient world, unconstrained by facts and experiences of the real world. The antithesis of works of fiction are scientific findings solely based on provable facts and experience. For agenda-driven environmental science, facts can sometime prove inconvenient. It’s far easier to advance an agenda with agreeable science, even if that means creating science fiction or fictional science. Fictional science thus becomes the pseudo-reality of environmentalist’s absolutism and any science that disagrees with their predetermined conclusions of man-made harm to the environment is ignored or distorted. Now we learn that in some government agencies, scientists who question the veracity and validity of scientific evidence used to formulate environmental regulations and policies are shunned, kept quiet, and purged.
The purpose of fictional environmental science is to sway public opinion through what amounts to propaganda. Intransigent purveyors of “green” propaganda know their greatest enemy is truth. One of the most famous propaganda experts was Germany’s Joseph Goebbels, who taught that if a lie is repeated often enough it will eventually be accepted as truth. Goebbels also knew that truth has to be suppressed if it contradicts the objectives of the propaganda. Goebbels wrote, “It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
Over the past three decades, government has unleashed an unprecedented wave of environmental rules and regulations that affect nearly every aspect of American life, and for the most part the public has tolerated it. Public embrace of environmental propaganda and fear mongering about the apocalyptic consequences of mankind’s abuse of the planet have elevated environmentalism to a status above national security. The public is now more likely to give up rights and freedoms for the cause of saving the planet than for security reasons.
Carl Brehmer reminds us of a crucial internal conflict within the “greenhouse effect” hypothesis. So vague and self-contradictory are the myriad explanations given by climatologists of this “theory” that anyone who critically examines it soon understands that it is best explained as a tautology.
In rhetoric ‘tautology’ is defined as using different words to say the same thing, or a series of self-reinforcing statements that cannot be disproved because they depend on the assumption that they are already correct. We never have and never will get a detailed scientific explanation of the “greenhouse gas” effect (GHE) because for climatologists to seek one would require them to dissect it, thus exposing the truth; it hangs on nothing of any substance.
We are never given the “how” and yet science is all about how things work. When Principia Scientific International (PSI), comprised of 200 experts in science and engineering, sought clarification from the supporters of the GHE they were either ridiculed or ignored. So with no answers as to the “how” inquiring minds turned to the “why” for the rise of this climate chimera.
In a series of articles we saw that the idea of a GHE driven by carbon dioxide was re-invented in the late 1970’s after being widely accepted in science as having been refuted before 1950.
After decades this re-invented “theory” finally gained acceptance during the 1980’s as the field of government-funded climatology grew. We were given no reason why mainstream science had got it wrong in dismissing it so unequivocally for more than a generation. There were certainly no new discoveries in the 70’s suddenly proving carbon dioxide did “trap” heat after all. Moreover, despite all the inward investment in climate research no time, let along any rigor was applied to providing any standard definition of what this newly re-born “greenhouse effect” actually was.
“Analogously but Different”
Incredibly, despite forty years and a multi-billion dollar taxpayer-funded “carbon reduction” industry avidly pursuing control of this alleged climate thermostat there are no agreed equations and no agreed descriptors of how this “thermostat” actually works. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adds to the confusion in this tragic-comedy by glibly declaring our atmosphere is analogous to a greenhouse “but different.”
These handwaving proponents of the hypothesis will always start out by admitting the only meaningful source of heat to the surface of the earth is the sun. But then they will often declare that certain gases then serve to drive “down-welling radiation” (or “back radiation”) from the atmosphere as a secondary heat source.
Please take no one’s word on this. Just do your own Google search; most definitions of the “greenhouse effect” either overtly assert or at least imply that downwelling IR radiation from the atmosphere adds additional heat to the ground/ocean.
But nowhere will you be told where the extra heat generated by the atmosphere goes, because all outward longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is equal to, and in balance with, all the absorbed sunlight. So, within the “greenhouse effect” hypothesis all that “additional” thermal energy that the atmosphere generates disappears as mysteriously as it appeared in the first place (see diagram).
Astrophysicist, Joseph E. Postma speaks for most critics of this shape-shifting GHE. Postma points out that the duty of modern empirical science is to seek to identify the physical principles that underlay observed phenomena. He writes:
“By identifying and understanding the underlying principle, we thus understand reality. If we can mathematize the principle and justify it on a-priori mathematical absolutivity, then the phenomenon becomes a scientific Law, such as the Laws of Thermodynamics or Kepler’s Law of Universal Gravitation, or the Laws of Least Action or Least Time. We can also engineer the physical principle and use it to our benefit, to produce products, services, and generally, to create wealth and increase the standard of living of people, etc.
The obvious question: is the underlying principle of the atmospheric greenhouse effect actually defined, anywhere? All I have to tell you, is that “No, it is not.””
A healthy skepticism demands of us that we look again at the above diagram, sold to us as the basic model of the greenhouse gas effect. Imagine what difference the addition or removal of that cyclical flow of phantom internal energy would make on the system as a whole. It makes no difference scientifically at all and we could easily discard it if we wished by applying the accepted principle of ‘Occam’s Razor‘ (“plurality should not be posited without necessity”). But to a charlatan looking to pick your pockets for more tax dollars, it is very necessary being the cleverest and most powerful tautology ever sold.
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*In 1827 celebrated French Mathematician Jean-BaptisteJosephFourierdetermined that the theoretical temperature of the Earth based on just the thermal radiation from the sun was cooler than the actual temperature due to atmospheric insulation. He named this insulation effect “uneffetdeverre” (an effect of glass) after work by French Scientist de Saussure who demonstrated this insulation using glass panes for insulation.
Later work by physicists Planck, Stefan, and Boltzmann provided understanding of the relationship between temperature of a body (blackbody) and the intensity of radiation allowing for the calculation of the Earth’s theoretical radiative temperature exclusive of atmospheric insulation according to the formula Te= [So(1-A)/4σ]1/4derived from Planck’s equations using the Stefan Boltzmann constant “σ”.
We can measure planet surface temperature from its radiative spectrum. We can also calculate Teby making some estimate of both solar Irradiance (So) and the planet albedo (A). The subtraction of Tefrom the planetary temperature provides a metric for comparing the relative atmospheric insulation of the planets essentially calibrating the insulation effect first noted by Fourier back in 1827. This theoretical temperature difference depicting atmospheric insulation was renamed “the greenhouse effect” relating the insulation against thermal transmission by conduction by the glass in a greenhouse to the insulation against thermal radiation provided by the atmosphere of the planets.
Preying on overall public ignorance of science unscrupulous scientists rebranded the greenhouse effect as some sort of physical effect driven by CO2emissions causing catastrophic global warming. This fraudulent use of the term greenhouse effect was introduced over 25 years ago and spawned a series of equally fraudulent terms such as “greenhouse warming” and “greenhouse gases” providing the propaganda vocabulary that has created a climate change issue out of nothing to serve the political agenda of the climate change scam perpetrators.
While the term greenhouse effect is perfectly valid in its geophysical scientific context; it is completely ludicrous when used as a mechanism whereby increased CO2creates energy out of nothing and causes the Earth to warm to catastrophic levels as a result of an enhanced greenhouse effect.
This article takes the fraudsters to task exposing the fraudulently rebranded version of the greenhouse effect for what it is.
Ivan Oransky over at Retraction Watch is giving readers the heads up on a new initiative by Grant Steen who has published a number of important papers on retractions. Steen is now looking to gather stories from anyone involved in science fraud.
Here is Oransky’s piece setting out the details:
Why is there fraud in science?
Scientists believe—or at least profess to believe—that science is a process of iteratively approaching Truth. Failed experiments are supposed to serve as fodder for successful experiments, so that clouded thinking can be clarified. Observations that are fundamentally true are thought to find support, while observations that are flawed in some way are supplanted by better observations.
Why then would anyone think that scientific fraud can succeed? Fraud would seem to be intellectual pyrotechnics; a dazzling light that leaves us in darkness. If science truly is self-correcting, then why would people risk perpetrating fraud? The notion of self-correction suggests that fraud is certain to be found out. Why risk it? Or are most scientists wrong? Does science often fail to self-correct? Is the literature full of misinformation, left behind like landmines in an abandoned battlefield?
What is the rationale for data fabrication and data falsification? We invite anyone who has been involved in a scientific retraction due to fraud, or otherwise implicated in scientific misconduct, to write an essay for inclusion in a projected book about scientific fraud. Essays are solicited from people who were involved as either a perpetrator or a co-author. It is vital that this account be written from a personal perspective. Please limit speculation and stick to verifiable facts insofar as possible, so that future historians can learn what actually happened. Please do not discuss retractions that resulted from an honest scientific mistake, and do not dwell on transgressions such as plagiarism, duplicate publication, or co-author squabbles. Discussion should focus primarily on data fabrication and data falsification. We are especially interested in first-person accounts that relate to any (or all) of the following questions:
What actually happened?
What is the scientific story behind the transgression?
How did you (or a colleague) fabricate or falsify data?
What was the short- or long-term goal of the deception?
Did you perceive any significant obstacles to fabrication or falsification?
Did the research infrastructure fail in any way?
How was the fraud discovered?
Do you believe that the scientific enterprise was damaged?
What was the aftermath for you and for your collaborators?
What are your thoughts and perceptions now?
Please limit your essays to no more than 3,000 words and send them to [email protected]
Be prepared to prove that you are who you claim to be; we will try hard not be taken in by a scam. However, it may be possible to publish the piece anonymously, though this would greatly lessen the impact. If accepted for publication, your work will be edited for clarity only; there will be no censorship, no editorial intrusion, and no correction of what are claimed as facts. However, these essays will become part of a multi-author dialogue about scientific fraud. If a book contract can be secured, each essay will form a chapter in the book. No profits are anticipated, so no financial gain can accrue from the project. However, this is a chance to tell your story on a national stage.
Appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is a paper from Princeton University, New Jersey suggesting sexual discrimination is alive and well in the elite science schools of America.
Obtaining willing participants from what the authors refer to as “high-quality United States science programs” the study recruited from six anonymous American universities. All the institution have rankings by the Carnegie Foundation as “large, Research University (very high research productivity)” with “prominent, well-respected science departments (both at the undergraduate and graduate level).” These are the very science graduates anticipated to pursue life-long careers in the sciences. A distinct bias against females was displayed by participants who tended to rate male applicants as significantly more competent and employable than an (identical) female applicant.
Despite efforts to recruit and retain more women, a stark gender disparity persists within academic science. Abundant research has demonstrated gender bias in many demographic groups, but has yet to experimentally investigate whether science faculty exhibit a bias against female students that could contribute to the gender disparity in academic science. In a randomized double-blind study (n= 127), science faculty from research-intensive universities rated the application materials of a student—who was randomly assigned either a male or female name—for a laboratory manager position. Faculty participants rated the male applicant as significantly more competent and hireable than the (identical) female applicant. These participants also selected a higher starting salary and offered more career mentoring to the male applicant. The gender of the faculty participants did not affect responses, such that female and male faculty were equally likely to exhibit bias against the female student. Mediation analyses indicated that the female student was less likely to be hired because she was viewed as less competent. We also assessed faculty participants’ preexisting subtle bias against women using a standard instrument and found that preexisting subtle bias against women played a moderating role, such that subtle bias against women was associated with less support for the female student, but was unrelated to reactions to the male student. These results suggest that interventions addressing faculty gender bias might advance the goal of increasing the participation of women in science.
Supporting information for the Princeton study is found here.
Group of 20 ex-NASA scientists have concluded that the science used to support the man-made climate change hypothesis is not settled and no convincing physical evidence exists to support catastrophic climate change forecasts.
Beginning in February 2012, the group of scientists calling themselves The Right Climate Stuff (TRCS) team received presentations by scientists representing all sides of the climate change debate and embarked on an in-depth review of a number of climate studies.
Employing a disciplined approach of problem identification and root cause analysis honed from decades of dealing with life threatening safety issues in successfully sending astronauts up through Earth’s atmosphere and returning them safely home, the TRCS team concluded that no imminent threat exists from man-made CO2.
TRCS team is comprised of renowned space scientists with formal educational and decades career involvement in engineering, physics, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, geology and meteorology. Many of these scientists have Ph.Ds. All TRCS team members are unpaid volunteers who began the project after becoming dismayed with NASA’s increasing advocacy for alarmist man-made climate change theories.
1. The science of what is causing global climate change or warming is clearly not settled and never has been.
2. There is no convincing physical evidence to support the man-made climate change hypothesis. The standard test of a hypothesis is whether it is supported by real observations, which seems to have been ignored by climate alarmists.
3. Claims made by proponents of catastrophic man-made warming are dominantly supported by non-validated computer models and the output of these models should not be relied upon by policy-makers. Some TRCS team members have been making critical decisions using complex computer models for decades.
4. There is no immediate threat of catastrophic global warming even if some warming occurs. The sea level is not going to suddenly begin a steep acceleration of its 18,000-year rate of rise. Global sea level rise is not currently accelerating despite what climate change alarmists claim.
5. The U.S. Government has overreacted to a possible catastrophic warming. The probable negative impacts to the economy, jobs and an increased cost of food, transportation and utilities will be severe and hurt the poor and middle class the most. Real experiments show that Earth’s habitats and ecosystems could be damaged if CO2 levels are actually reduced. Environmentalists have been grossly misled to believe CO2 is a pollutant.
6. Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently “greening” significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming.
7. Money saved by abandoning a premature rush to lower CO2 emissions could be better spent by continuing research on alternative energies that are not currently competitive or reliable.
Dr. Harold Doiron, team leader for TRCS and former NASA scientist, along with H. Leighton Steward, will be participating on The Hard Question panel debate on climate change tonight at 5:00pm at The National Press Club, Holeman Lounge (13 th floor) , 529 14 th Street, Washington, DC.
Forbes is running a superb article by Bill Frezza turning the spotlight on science fraud. Many of us share such concerns because misconduct in the sciences now seems endemic.
Bill writes of the “decaying credibility of Big Science” and rightly laments the sad case of whistleblower siteScience Fraudthat was shut down due to a barrage of legal threats for bravely exposing suspicious research results in over 300 peer-reviewed publicationsin six months since the site began.
With billions of dollars in government funded science up for grabs the integrity of academic researchers is increasingly being strained. This isn’t just by external peer-pressure to get the ‘right’ results but also by the inexorable need to make ends meet in a struggling economy.
The banking profession hit rock bottom in 2008 and who is to say 2013 won’t be the year that signals the collapse of confidence in government funded scientists.Frezza tells us what many of us have long suspected, “Fraud, plagiarism, cherry-picked results, poor or non-existent controls, confirmation bias, opaque, missing, or unavailable data, and stonewalling when questioned have gone from being rare to being everyday occurrences.”
Just look at thesoaring retraction levelacross multiple scientific publications and the increasingly vocal hand wringing of science vigilantes, says Bill. Read more here.
Sweden’s leading math professor has uncovered what appears to be a major scientific deception perpetrated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concerning a device that supposedly “proves” the greenhouse gas effect of global warming is real. Professor Claes Johnson has discovered that infrared thermometer manufacturers have been calibrating their devices to a WMO measure known to have little reliability and may even be bogus. Johnson calls the device a “fabricated product.”
Professor Johnson, a skeptic of man-made global warming claims, says he has found a fatal flaw in key instrumentation that supposedly measures, and thus proves, the radiation emitted because of of the “greenhouse gas effect” (GHE) which is calibrated in Watts.These instruments are used forscientific measurements of outdoor downward atmospheric long-wave radiation- the supposed source of the GHE’s added heating mechanism. Johnson performed detailed research into the thermometers of one leading manufacturers of IRT’s Kipp&Zonen pyrgeometers, with their model CGR 4. Kipp & Zonen describe their CGR4 thermometers as having “extremely high reliability and accuracy.” But as Johnson discovered, this is a bogus and perhaps intentionally fraudulent claim.
The stunned professor laments, “There is no reason to believe that the fabricated “radiance product” has anything to do with reality. There is good reason to believe that we the people are deceived by government scientists. But if science can be used to deceive, science can also be used to reveal deception.”
Sweden’s most cited math professor says, “We read that the pyrgeometer measures a voltage proportional to net absorbed radiation, from which “by calculation” a quantity named “downward long-wave radiation DLR” is derived.” But is it?
Johnson tells us that the basic idea for a GHE measurement is from “atmospheric re-emission” by in particular carbon dioxide (CO2), which is claimed to be a “greenhouse gas.” By using the CGR4 thermometer it is possible to see a warming effect from DLR of about 4 W/srm2 per micrometer at a wavelength of 15 micrometer where the trace gas CO2 is emitting/absorbing.
However, after carefully crunching the numbers Johnson has spotted a monumental error. The pyrometer has been calibrated using a bungled calculation of the Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) Law. The Swedish math professor from RTH claims, “The consequences for climate alarmism, and Kipp&Zonen are far-reaching.”
But it gets worse! The WMO admit this whole area of science is not actually known. In section 7.4.3 of their aforementioned document the WMO claimed that: “Over the last decade, significant advances have been made in the measurement of terrestrial radiation by pyrgeometers, which block out solar radiation. Nevertheless, the measurement of terrestrial radiation is stillmore difficult and less understoodthan the measurement of solar irradiance.”
The big question Johnson now poses is who is responsible for this deception? “ I think this is an interesting case concerning the responsibility of scientists and scientific institutions, and commercial actors relying on the science. It is clear that in medicine or building technology there are those who are held responsible. It must be so also in atmospherics science. I will ask WMO for the scientific source and report the answer,” said the professor.
Even Professor Roy Spencer, a climatologist who believes in the GHE but is skeptical of man-made global warming, has been duped by relying on these junk devices. Spencer says he “proved” the GHE by driving “around pointing this thing [IRT] straight up through my sunroof at a cloud-free sky.”
Spencer continues, “If the device was perfectly calibrated, and there was NO greenhouse effect, it would measure an effective sky temperature near absolute zero (-460 deg. F) rather than +34 deg. F.” Yes, Roy IF the device was perfectly calibrated, but it can’t be according to the WMO’s own admission. When I challenged Roy suggesting he has been fooled his reply was, “I suppose I’m just a sucker for quaint old wives tales.” Yes, Roy it seems you are!
If the WMO now decline to give Johnson a straight answer and admit to these serious flaws then once again we shall see how the man-made global warming fraud is sustained by a coterie of self-serving participants. With fellow Principia Scientific International (PSI) colleague, Dr. Tim Ball on the threshold of two astonishing courtroom victories against junk climatists Johnson asks the question: “Can the WMO be sued for distributing science which is admittedly not understood but which they say is valid simply by referring to measurements made by a pyrgeometer using the WMO formula?” if the WMO are allowed to get away with this con trick of circular reasoning then any formula can be validated this way.