Climate ‘Crisis’ Or Leap Of Faith? Our Politicians Are Clueless
Governments are currently fighting climate change to the tune of billions. For this to make sense, each idea in the following chain of reasoning needs to be bulletproof:
#1 – Scientists know there’s a climate crisis
#2 – Scientists know it’s humanity’s fault
#3 – Scientists know we can alleviate the crisis by changing our behavior
But each of these amounts to a leap of faith. Let’s start with the conviction that something unusual is going on.
This planet is more than four billion years old. The climate was marching to its own drummer long before humans appeared.
It has changed numerous times – sometimes gradually, sometimes violently. Twenty thousand years ago, much of North America was covered by ice.
Because humans weren’t recording and analyzing those billions of years of climatic history, today’s scientists have no way of knowing if anything unusual is going on now.
They can surmise. They can speculate. They can extrapolate. But they have no smoking gun. I’ve written two books about the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
That organization says it’s “extremely likely that more than half” of the global warming between 1951 and 2010 was caused by human activity. It talks about its “best estimate.”
click to enlarge; source here
Please note the startling imprecision here: Extremely likely. More than half. Best estimate. These aren’t facts. They’re educated guesses. They’re opinion.
It’s absolutely crucial that we grasp this point: the IPCC has no hard evidence of a crisis. It has no math that can be examined and verified. It has only expert opinion. Estimates.
If you choose to take this leap of faith, you’re immediately invited to take another – to embrace the notion that the alleged climate crisis was triggered by human activity.
As I’ve just outlined, the IPCC can’t prove this. It merely believes humans caused more than half of the warming over a 60-year period. That’s a long way from demonstrating clear human responsibility for an imminent catastrophe.
On these two decisive questions – is there really a climate problem, and are humans really to blame – the IPCC has nothing definitive to contribute. Governments have, nevertheless, taken these leaps of faith.
Everyone seems to have forgotten that scientists are fallible. Like the rest of us, they know a great deal about their own field, but can be surprisingly misinformed about broader trends.
Like the rest of us, they are susceptible to groupthink. Many IPCC personnel subscribe to a belief system that regards human activities as unnatural and therefore automatically threatening to the natural world. But belief systems are not proof.
Leap of faith #3 – the idea that humanity can fix whatever is currently going on with the climate – is equally dubious.
Even if something alarming is happening, even if it is our fault, that doesn’t mean it lies within our power to influence, interrupt, or steer the powerful natural forces that have already been set in motion.
It certainly doesn’t mean there’s only one sure-fire anointed fix – slashing greenhouse gas emissions.
Governments are obsessed with greenhouse gases because they signed a UN treaty back in 1992. Long before the IPCC had produced its multi-thousand-page reports the cart was put before the horse.
The UN – a political body – decreed that human-generated emissions were a problem that governments should do something about. The IPCC has struggled ever since to build a scientific case in support of that position.
No one actually knows whether reducing emissions will work. No one knows how long it might take to ‘stabilize’ the climate via this means. Yet governments are piling on the carbon taxes.
Year after year, they divert billions away from healthcare and education to fight climate change with ever-expanding emissions reduction policies.
In 1992, the UK was led by John Major, Germany was led by Helmut Kohl, America was led by George H.W. Bush, and France was led by Francois Mitterrand. The Internet barely existed in 1992, the founding of Google was still years away.
That treaty belongs to a different era. There is no shame in walking away from outdated, 30-year-old thinking.
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Alan
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A refreshing read.
I would add that that the IPCC has converted their opinions into fake science and has a team of qualified scientists in academia who are prepared to lie about established physics. They have created new laws of thermodynamics and claim that heat can transfer from cold to hot. The way they describe the greenhouse effect has created a new law of conservation of temperature, which is not possible. They lie about the oceans becoming more acidic when they are not acidic in the first place.
Why they lie is a mystery to me, but humans have been doing this since the dawn of civilisation. We had the medieval equivalent of today when witches were accused of weather cooking and lost their lives when found guilty. Now we are all witches and can change the climate. Politicians and some scientists and of course the media are pointing the finger at all of us. The climate models are just a sophisticated way of presenting their incorrect theories and are no better at predicting the future than the ancients were when they were fiddling around in animal entrails.
Gad Saad in his book The Parasitic Mind suggests it seems like a parasite has invaded human minds and that it prevents rational thinking. The brilliant Thomas Sowell has made similar comment to one made in this article: “Of all ignorance, the ignorance of the educated is the most dangerous. Not only are educated people likely to have more influence, they are the last people to suspect that they don’t know what they are talking about when they go outside their narrow fields.”
But there are far more of us than our elected politicians and the powerful elite and a majority meekly accept what is being fed to them and I blame the media and celebrities for a lot of this. Modern communication is nothing but an amplifier of nonsense.
I cannot see this changing until there is unambiguous evidence from the climate that it is changing to being cooler. Perhaps the cold spell in Texas with millions without electricity is the start of the wake up call. But the last thing we want is a colder climate.
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Roger Higgs
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Alan, that’s a marvellous comment, thank you.
Donna’s work is outstanding, e.g. …
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Delinquent-Teenager-Mistaken-Worlds-Climate/dp/1466453486
Thank you John.
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Roger Higgs
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Alan, that’s a marvellous comment, thank you.
Donna’s work is outstanding, e.g. …
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Delinquent-Teenager-Mistaken-Worlds-Climate/dp/1466453486
Alan’s remark that the United Nations IPCC “has converted their opinions into fake science and has a team of qualified scientists in academia who are prepared to lie about established physics” is spot-on. I would add that the IPCC is, in fact, literally incompetent, as they ignore, of all people, geologists …
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185_IPCC_next_climate_assessment_report_AR6_due_2022_-_784_authors_but_again_no_geologists
Geologists know that CO2 is irrelevant to climate, of course …
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348369922_CO2_greenhouse_effect_is_negated_by_aerosol-cloud_feedback_underestimated_by_IPCC_Sun_'ocean-lag'_control_climate
Thank you John.
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Doug Harrison
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Very well said Alan (and Donna of course). I wish I could have written your post, it is a beauty.
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Patrick Hunt
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Wouldn’t it loverly if someone would tell me why Canada being 2°C warmer, and CO2 being 800 ppm higher would be a bad thing for Canada and a bad thing for our food supply?
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Barry
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I live on the west coast of Canada and even here we could use some more warming. I think we should all be happy that it has warmed up 2 degrees the last couple hundred years. And yes the ocean is apperantly 6 mm higher than it use to be but with 17 feet of tide change really not noticeable,not sure how we will deal with another 6 over the next hundred years. The whole thing is rediculous.
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julian
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Having held elected office for 8 years I can thoroughly agree and confirm that 95% or more of politicians are clueless in areas of science and technology. They are no smarter than the average person but more ready than the average person to parrot some dogma. Those that may have have a science course in their past become Dunning-Kruger “experts”.
When I (Phd – Oceanography-Zoology) declared CO2 /methane to be harmless, and Microwaves as dangerous long term, I was labeled a conspiracy whacko and DENIER. I found it funny as people would back away from me as if I had the plague and when I entered rooms, everyone present would fall silent. Such is the effect of climate fearmongering.
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