Exposed: Media Lies About Drought and Climate Change in the UK

Written by John O'Sullivan on . Posted in Current News

UK minister declares drought as ‘the new normal’ but actual rainfall data over many years proves Britain is getting WETTER!

Water and flooding minister Emma Hardy today declared that drought for the nation could become the ‘new normal‘ as 2026 saw Southern and south-west England record their driest April-to-September period in more than a century, with roughly 40% less rainfall than average. It certainly was a lovely summer for Brits who revel in blue skies, long sunny days and endless warmth.

Rather than blame the obvious under-investment in reservoirs and infrastructure over many decades man-made ‘climate change’ becomes the culprit

Climate killjoys have put a downer on a rare perfect English summer with the usual spin about impending climate doom. Worst offender (as usual) was the UK’s Met Office ((Sept 01, 2026) which claimed a record summer was made “around 130 times more likely” by human-induced climate change.

Of course, the BBC pulled out their usual hyperbole to scare the kiddies with ‘What will you tell your grandchildren about the summer of ’26?‘ (August 31). Telling younger readers this is “the type of summer that scientists have long warned about due to climate change.” 

UK drought

Reuters (Sept 01) was just as much a Debbie-downer linking the record heat and drought to man-made climate change “greatly” increasing extreme-weather likelihood.

We have already shot down the wonky ‘record-breaking 2026’ temperatures spin, so I won’t revisit that.

But have UK rainfall patterns changed over the last 100 years – is there more or less rain per year?

Over the last 100 years, UK rainfall patterns have changed. Britain has got WETTER.

Official weather data shows the most significant and consistent trend being a shift towards wetter winters and more intense heavy rainfall events. While the total annual rainfall has increased, the change is not uniform across all seasons or regions.

The Overall Picture: A Wetter UK

The UK is getting wetter overall, but the increase is not dramatic when looking at long-term averages. A key comparison shows that the UK’s annual average rainfall increased by 6% when comparing the 1991–2020 period against 1961–1990.

However, it’s important to note that the 1961–1990 baseline was a relatively dry period. When compared to the more recent 1981–2010 average, the increase in annual rainfall is only very small, highlighting how much natural variability exists from decade to decade.

The Seasonal Shift: Wetter Winters, Drier Springs

The most striking change is seasonal. The increase in annual rainfall is driven largely by much wetter winters. Data from the England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) series, which goes back to 1766, shows a marked increase in winter rainfall, especially over the 20th century.

While winters have become wetter, other seasons show different trends:

  • Spring: Rainfall has remained fairly steady, or slightly decreased since the 1980s/1990s.

  • Summer: The picture is more complex. There was a drier period through the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, but summer rainfall has increased again in recent decades from that low point.

  • Autumn: Rainfall has seen a slight increase.

The Nature of the Rain: More Extreme Events

Beyond just the total amount, the type of rain has changed. The UK is experiencing a greater proportion of its rainfall from heavy, intense events.

A study using data from over 600 rain gauges found that winter rain became more intense across the UK during the last 100 years. More recent data confirms this trend: the number of days with widespread heavy rain (≥10mm) has increased by around 10% when comparing 1991–2020 to 1961–1990. Looking at even heavier events, the most recent decade (2016–2025) has seen a 12% increase in days with ≥10mm of rain and an 18% increase in days with ≥25mm compared to 1961–1990.

This means that while the number of “rainy days” may not have changed dramatically, when it does rain, it is more likely to be a heavy downpour.

Of the ten wettest winter half-years in the England and Wales Precipitation series, which extends back to 1767, four have occurred since 2000 .

Summer tells a different story. The picture is more variable, with a drier period from the 1970s through the 1990s followed by an increase in recent decades. Overall, summer rainfall increased by around 7% between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 .

Spring and autumn have seen less dramatic changes. Spring rainfall has remained fairly steady or slightly decreased, while autumn shows a slight increase .

When It Rains, It Pours: The Shift to Intense Events

Perhaps the most important change for flood risk is not the total amount of rain, but how it falls. The UK is experiencing a greater proportion of its rainfall from heavy, intense events.

A study using data from over 600 rain gauges found that winter rain became more intense across the UK during the last 100 years . In the late 1960s, about 7% of the UK’s winter precipitation came from heavy rain or snow events. By the most recent decade, that figure had risen to about 12% .

The latest State of the UK Climate report confirms this trend. Occurrences of very wet months from October to March, with twice the 1961–1990 average rainfall, have approximately doubled for the most recent decade compared to 1961–1990 . The number of days with rainfall of 10mm or more has also increased, with the most recent decade seeing a 12% rise compared to 1961–1990 .

This means the UK’s rainfall is becoming more “lumpy”—concentrated into fewer, more intense events rather than spread evenly across many days.

The Bottom Line

Over the last 100 years, the UK has become wetter overall, but the change is not dramatic when viewed against the full range of natural variability. The more significant shift is in the character of the rain: winters are much wetter, and heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent and intense.

For anyone concerned with flood risk, agriculture, water management, or simply understanding how the UK’s climate is performing, the message is clear: rainfall data over the last 100 years does not show that Britain’s recent drought can be linked to man-made climate change. 

References

  1. Kendon, M., McCarthy, M., Jevrejeva, S., et al. (2021). State of the UK Climate 2020. International Journal of Climatology, 41(S1), 1–76. Available at: https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534096/

  2. Met Office. (2026). State of the UK Climate 2025. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/about/state-of-climate

  3. Kendon, M., et al. (2017). State of the UK Climate 2016. International Journal of Climatology, 37(S1), 1–58. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/state-of-uk-climate/mo-state-of-uk-climate-2016-v4.pdf

  4. Environment Agency. (2018). National Flood Resilience Review. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f973de5274a2e8ab4d1af/national-flood-resilience-review.pdf

  5. Kendon, M., et al. (2025). State of the UK Climate in 2024. International Journal of Climatology, 45(2). Available at: https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/540108/

  6. Kendon, M., et al. (2026). State of the UK Climate in 2025. International Journal of Climatology. Available at: https://macchub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Intl-Journal-of-Climatology-2026-Kendon-State-of-the-UK-Climate-in-2025_compressed.pdf

  7. Chan, S.C., et al. (2025). Projected changes in heavy rainfall events across the UK. Environmental Research Letters. Available at: https://beta.iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae17dc

  8. Kendon, M., et al. (2024). State of the UK Climate 2023. International Journal of Climatology, 44(2). Available at: https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537961/

  9. Met Office. (2026). Climate extremes are becoming the new ‘normal’ for the UK. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/climate-extremes-are-becoming-the-new-normal-for-the-uk

  10. Kendon, M., et al. (2022). State of the UK Climate 2021. International Journal of Climatology, 42(S1). Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/joc.7787

  11. BBC News. (2008). Study into intense rain patterns. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/norfolk/7246434.stm

  12. Met Office. (2013). Summer and winter precipitation in England and Wales. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7cab0140f0b6629523b0d1/precipitation_summary_report.pdf

  13. Met Office. (2021). Charting the UK’s changing climate. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2021/9120-new-climate-normal

  14. Royal Meteorological Society. (2026). State of the UK Climate 2025: Weather extremes have become the new normal. Available at: https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/state-uk-climate-2025-weather-extremes-have-become-new-normal

  15. Mills, T.C. (2005). Modelling precipitation trends in England and Wales. Meteorological Applications, 12(2), 169–176. Available at: http://resolve.cambridge.org/core/journals/meteorological-applications/article/abs/modelling-precipitation-trends-in-england-and-wales/C6E6D0BEDAF16D62EBF887AC34B31C09

  16. Kendon, E.J., et al. (2023). Convection-permitting projections of UK rainfall extremes. Nature Communications, 14, 655. Available at: https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/bitstream/handle/20.500.11850/603779/s41467-023-36499-9.pdf

  17. Kendon, M., et al. (2026). Extreme rainfall analysis. Weather. Available at: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/wea.70142

About the author: John O’Sullivan is CEO and co-founder (with Dr Tim Ball among 45 scientists) of Principia Scientific International (PSI).  He is a seasoned science writer, retired teacher and legal analyst who assisted skeptic climatologist Dr Ball in defeating UN climate expert, Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann in the multi-million-dollar ‘science trial of the century‘. From 2010 O’Sullivan led the original ‘Slayers’ group of scientists who compiled the book ‘Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory’ debunking alarmist lies about carbon dioxide plus their follow-up climate book. His most recent publication, ‘Slaying the Virus and Vaccine Dragon’ broadens PSI’s critiques of mainstream medical group think and junk science.

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