Met Office Heatwave Death Claim Was False Information
On July 13th, the New York Times ran a story entitled Heatwaves in Europe linked to thousands of excess deaths
The article states:
Europeans are being crushed by deadly temperatures.
Record-breaking heatwaves across much of the continent have claimed thousands of lives and created a perfect storm for destructive wildfires, as The New York Times reports.
A staggering number of these deaths, experts urge, are linked to climate change. Britain’s national weather agency, Met Office, said that of the 2,700 deaths in England and Wales believed to be the result of extreme heat so far this season — and we’re barely halfway through summer — around 42 percent were likely the result of the “human-caused” climate change.
“However, it is clear that human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves,” said Mark McCarthy, Met Office’s manager of climate attribution, in a statement. “This intensification is driving many impacts, including those affecting human health and mortality and other issues, such as agriculture, effects on transport infrastructure and biodiversity.”
In addition to the thousands of deaths in England and Wales, France has estimated that roughly a thousand excess deaths and hundreds of hospitalizations were caused by extreme heat, while Germany announced last week that its unprecedented temperatures have so far been linked to about 5,100 deaths.
Notice the use of the words ‘linked’, ‘believed’ ‘likely’ and ‘estimated’. These words are the same as attributing it. All are little more than assumption or opinion.
As I pointed out at the time, we did not have the mortality data at the time to make such an irresponsible claim.
The “estimate” came from modelling by Imperial College.
Now we do have the actual data, and it does not support the Met Office’s wild claims:
I have plotted the weekly cumulative death registrations, starting in Week 18, which is the first week in May, and ending in Week 30, which was July 24th this year – this is the latest data available from the ONS.
There is no spike in deaths at any stage during 3-month period. Cumulatively there were 136,066 deaths last year and 135,466 this year.
So there were less deaths this year than last year, but the media want you to believe the exact opposite.
As for the deaths in Europe, it is worth revisiting the Lancet study in 2021, which found that the number of cold-related deaths in Western Europe was four times as great as heat-related ones.
Source thelancet.com
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