Will Happer – Another Zeta Comedian
I have been part of a long-ongoing email thread with the CLINTEL group and consulting scientists for the past many years.
The thread hasn’t been active since CLINTEL released their statement last year, but, it recently had an addition by one of the members.
One of the other contributors is Will Happer, who is a semi-well known “skeptic” of ‘anthropogenic climate change’.
Well, one of the members brought up the point that the only thing CLINTEL and other members of the thread should be bothering to do anymore is simply debunk the basis of AGW, which is its idea of a ‘greenhouse effect’.
Nikolov and Zeller were referenced as source material for this, as well as my own books and work.
Well, Will Happer didn’t want to be part of that discussion, and asked to be removed from the thread. Curious about this, I asked Will Happer, quoting:
Actually, Will, I would like to ask you what your position is on the greenhouse effect?
Further, what is your understanding of how it is supposed to work? And what is its origin in theory, etc.?
Really would appreciate your comments here.
Cheers,
Joe
Will Happer responded with this:
Dear Joe,
Attached is a little essay for technically literate readers that William van Wijngaarden and I wrote a year ago. We have have not gotten around to publishing it. It summarizes our understanding of the greenhouse effect.
Best wishes,
Will
So, I told Will that I would read his paper, and would add sticky notes with my comments on it. The PDF with the sticky notes still in it is uploaded to my WordPress now, and can be found here if you would like to see Will’s paper, but, I will write out my sticky note comments following and so you can just read along here.
Will wrote:
WH: “How greenhouse gases affect Earth’s climate is a complicated issue, where atmospheric thermodynamics and convection are intimately involved. We will simplify the discussion as much
as possible, but we will also try to adhere to Einstein’s admonition: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”.”
My comment:
JP: “This principle of Einstein’s is actually violated, though. And not in a trivial way, but in a real, significant, impactful, and meaningful way.”
Continuing,
WH: “Launching into our maximally simplified discussion of the greenhouse effect, we consider a hypothetical Earth with a transparent atmosphere that is 80% nitrogen and 20% oxygen, and with the same mass as today’s atmosphere.
But we assume no greenhouse gases at all, no CO2, no H2O and no clouds. To be consistent with no clouds, this hypothetical Earth must have no oceans, from which water vapor could evaporate.
Oxygen, O2, actually does absorb a small amount of sunlight and also thermal radiation, but we will ignore that absorption and assume the atmosphere is completely transparent.
To further simplify the problem, we assume that the Sun shines steadily with equal intensity on every part of Earth’s surface, from the tropics to the poles.”
My comment:
JP: “Up to here the simplifications were hypothetically rational, hypothetically possible. That makes these simplifications ontologically possible things to explore in physics.
However, when the simplification here extends to “the Sun shining steadily with equal intensity on every part of Earth’s surface”, we have now reached a degree of simplification which divorces from reality; this is a simplification which is not ontologically possible. It is not possible for reality to express this simplification, hence, it is not possible for physics to express this simplification, hence, it is not possible that there is any physics to be used for this simplification – physics as we know it cannot apply to it.
A possible fiction is created with the previous simplifications. But a true fiction, an impossible fiction, is created with the latter.
See the next note for explanation.”
In the paper, Will goes on to demonstrate how to calculate the average output flux of the Earth, which he then equates to be the same thing as the solar input flux. Thus, my comment:
JP: “This number, 340 W/m^2, is what makes this simplification irrational, i.e. non-ontological. Earlier you listed the solar flux as 1360 W/m^2. So, which is it? Is the solar flux 1360 W/m^2, or, is it 340 W/m^2?
There is a paradox here. This isn’t a matter of a trivial approximation or averaging, but represents a change in the underlying nature of the physics, because flux relates to temperature, and temperature relates to what physics can manifest. Again, this is a fictional average which does not empirically exist, and cannot ontologically exist; it has went beyond the possibility of reality, as Einstein warned about.
That is: 340 W/m^2 cannot perform the same physics that 1360 W/m^2 can perform. 340 W/m^2 is 5 Celsius, whereas 1360 W/m^2 is +121 Celsius. One of these values cannot create the climate as we know it, whereas the other one certainly can, in the context of forcing of heat upon matter and the response that matter then has to that.
We’re supposed to be making a model for the climate, and atmosphere, correct? In that case, we must use the forcing values which actually create the climate: 1360 W/m^2 is what actually exists, and, it does create the climate; 340 W/m^2 is not what exists, and, it would not create the climate even if it did. This is important!”
Will then makes a few comments about heat flow, to which I commented:
JP: “It is very important to keep to strict definitions, although the usage of the language has become quite muddled over the 100 years since thermodynamics was developed.
The first law of thermodynamics is dU = Q + W = m Cp dT, which says, that to increase a body’s temperature, one must have heat (W), and/or work (W). This means that heat is the same thing as work: work is macroscopic, heat is microscopic – that’s the only difference. Heat is therefore an action, and it is not a conserved quantity, like energy is. Heat is an action energy may perform.When may energy perform the action of heat, i.e. of heating? For that you need the heat equation, and of course, heat only acts from a warm body upon a cooler one…and this is true for all modes of heat: conductive, diffusive, convective, and of course, radiative. They all follow the rule of heat, only acting from hot to cool.
With that, right there, the idea that the atmosphere can heat the surface or increase the surface temperature is rendered defunct…not possible.
But here is where it comes together: the idea that radiation from the atmosphere is required to increase the surface temperature comes in the first place from using 340 W/m^2 as the solar input, which makes it seem like the Sun is too feeble to heat the surface to the temperatures we experience. But, the Sun does actually have such power, because it is actually 1360 W/m^2, not 340 W/m^2!
More comments below re: adiabatic atmosphere.”
Finally, Will referenced the adiabatic lapse rate, but without deriving it, and so I commented:
JP: “Let’s demonstrate the derivation of the lapse rate in the first place. For a gas in a gravitational field, and using local thermodynamic equilibrium, then the total energy of a gas parcel is
U = mgh + mCpT
Because this is local thermodynamic equilibrium, then the differential is:
dU = mg*dh + mCp*dT
Local thermodynamic equilibrium implies constant energy, so dU = 0, and therefore:
dT/dh = g/ Cp
This gives the -10K/km for dry air, and if you factor in the average absolute concentration of water vapor and its rate of condensation and release of latent heat as it cools in the air column, you will derive the environmental rate of -6.5K/km.
So, we know that the atmosphere must have a gradient in temperature. The question is: where is the zero-point? We have a gradient – where is the anchor?
But here’s the really important part: if we know that the gradient must exist, then we also know that, mathematically, the average of the values making up the gradient cannot be found at an extremity of the gradient, but must, by definition of an average, be found around the middle.
So, what do we expect to be the average? Do we expect it to be the effective temperature, of -18C, where the solar energy has been factored for albedo, etc.? If we do expect the average to be -18C, then, it is impossible that this average should occur at the bottom-slice of the atmosphere.
The bottom-slice of the atmosphere has to be warmer than the average, and it must be the warmest part of the gradient, and the average must be found around the middle of the troposphere. In fact, -18C is found at altitude in the troposphere, and if you use that temperature as the anchor point, then lo and behold, you will calculate +15C as the near-surface air temperature!
In other words, we model the atmosphere with no reference to a greenhouse effect. With or without so-called “greenhouse gases”, the expected average of -18C effective temperature cannot be found at the bottom-slice of atmosphere.
Do so-called “greenhouse gases” change the altitude of the anchor point, and thus change the temperature at the bottom-slice of atmosphere? We know that so-called greenhouse gases do not change the gradient, since the derivation of the gradient only required Cp, and hence does not depend on the radiative properties of the gas.
This is what Lindzen looked for, in the “tropospheric hotspot”, and did not find it. Greenhouse gases were not rising the altitude of the anchor point.
If you change the altitude of the anchor point, then you in fact change the average temperature of the entire structure. But the Stefan-Boltzmann Law requires that higher temperature emits more energy, but ultimately, there is only one energy source, and it is constant – so emit more than the constant would result in cooling, not warming.”
Here is where the comedy starts. I send the PDF of his paper with the above sticky notes back to him, with this email:
Hi Will,
OK, I took a few minutes to read it over, and I added sticky-note comments where appropriate.
I am also attaching two papers I wrote, which I hope you will take a look at to help flesh out the meaning and explanation of what I put in the sticky notes. I read your paper, and so I hope that you will read mine. They’re technical papers similar to yours, although focusing on more simple and direct fundamentals.
One problem in this discussion is that people always talk past each other with regards to the definition of “greenhouse effect” which they are working with, and these can be drastically different. The definition I use is the one which is pedagogical, which is found in instructory physics classrooms and textbooks.
I appreciate this correspondence.
Best regards,
Joe
And this was his reply (my emphasis):
Dear Joe,
You asked for my views on the greenhouse effect. The paper I sent is an accurate summary of my views.
I don’t understand many of your comments in the sticky notes, but so be it.
No offense meant, but I don’t have time for further correspondence of this issue.
Best wishes,
Will
So, you see how the Zeta parasites operate? They just gaslight, lie, miss the point, pretend nothing was said, and pretend that they can’t understand something which they can clearly understand given their own scientific writing.
You see…as I said in my Planet Wars book: this is impossible.
Given that these people have degrees in physics, given their ability to write technical papers with math and physics, given their own demonstrated interest in the subject, it is impossible for them to not understand what I write to them, and it is impossible for them to not be interested in contributions which are similar to their own.
These people are just pretending…they’re pretending to be skeptics, but what they’re really doing, what they really are, are just Zeta-infested parasitical nodes to maintain the pretense that there’s nothing to question or comment on with regards to cold vs. hot sunshine, flat-plane illumination vs. hemispheric illumination, etc.
At all costs, to all ends, they refuse to engage on the question of the ‘greenhouse effect’. I mean, we’ve been through this, you read my Planet Wars book and saw the peer-review people say that there is nothing wrong with flat Earth theory, and that it makes no difference. It’s just gaslighting.
Note also how Will uses yet another personal quirky definition of the ‘greenhouse effect’ and talks about “his understanding” of it…but then refuses to address or acknowledge my actual references to the actual definition of it, as if these don’t exist or aren’t relevant.
BTW, here are the two papers I sent along to Will. They’re both excellent reads, and have each appeared in my books – the first book, and the third book – but these should really be put out there and shared on their own, as they’re so excellent:
There is no Radiative Greenhouse Effect
An Alternative Global Energy Budget
Anyway – these people are comedians. I simply wrote back to Will and said:
That’s very funny Will. Thank you.
Cheers,
Joe
We are dealing with an alien noetic parasitical life form which at all costs cannot acknowledge any form of truth at any time. It feeds off of the energy leakage caused by cognitive dissonance. It can only lie, gaslight, and misdirect, at all times.
Whenever you find this behaviour in another person, realize that you are dealing merely with a “flesh suit” which has behind its appearance a disgusting nasty parasite that wants to torture you to death as it consumes all of your energy.
See more here climateofsophistry.com
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Joseph Olson
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I attended the Heartland ICCC-9, three day Lukewarmist Love Fest in July of 2014 with 600 claimed skeptics. I attended the Heritage Summit, three day Lukewarmist Love Fest in September of 2014 with 300 claimed skeptics. Out of both events there was not a total of a dozen “scientists” who had any understanding of atmospheric Radiation Physics or Thermodynamics. This has been the Slayers and PSI dilemma for over a decade. Combating the arrogance of the ignorant.
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Climate Heretic
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“Combating the arrogance of the ignorant”, has been the bane of my existence. When I’m talking to people in general, quite often I will ask the question “What is more expensive than an education?” The answer is never obvious when I ask this. The answer of course is “ignorance” and hence the education system needs to have embedded at the core of its functionality, that will combat this “ignorance” that prevails our society.
Regards
Climate Heretic
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Joseph and Joe,
Just before I submitted this comment, I finally saw there were two ‘Joes’ with whom I am quite familiar. To begin this comment I must state that I agree totally with Joseph’s statement: “Out of both events there was not a total of a dozen “scientists” who had any understanding of atmospheric Radiation Physics or Thermodynamics. This has been the Slayers and PSI dilemma for over a decade. Combating the arrogance of the ignorant.” So I ask the question: Do either of you consider that you could also be ignorant of historical observed FACTS? I know I have been and still am ignorant (or very uncertain about those I claim to know).
What do you know about Lewis Frank of the U of Iowa? From the beginning I followed his trials and tribulations imposed upon him by his sceintifcic community (including close friends) when he insisted that his observations of small snowballs (maybe dirty snowballs) regularly entering the earth’s atmosphere and his explanation of his observations be published in Physical Review Letters.
As I read his 1914 obituary it seems what followed for years never happened. That is why I asked you my question. For I personally know that this historical event seems to have been removed from the historical record as I just searched for record of this event.
Have a good day, Jerry
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T. C. Clark
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Time for the Big Experiment….construct an identical twin earth on the other side of the sun….increase CO2 to 1000ppm and measure the temp.
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Gary Ashe
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You don’t need an identical earth, just put 2 glass containers out on a roof top or garden, a thermometer in one and simply seal in the air with 80 parts per million of c02 in it.
Have an identical glass container with just air in it and a thermometer sealed in, logging readings for 6 months, then swap the thermometers around just incase one is fractionly different than the other even tho they are the same ones and leave and log for another 6 months, mid summer to mid winter and mid winter to mid summer,
24 readings a day from each device or a camera set up recording is enough to establish a yearly average temperature recorded by each device and see what 200 x background levels of co2 produced over a year above the ordinary airs average year temperature for that sunlit location.
My bet is no difference what so ever especially if you swap the glass containers position from right to and left to right at the 6 month part when you swap around the thermometers.
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Gary Ashe
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That should read 8 parts per million parts, not 80.
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Lit
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This is the most interesting discussion about the GHE. Consider this, the area that receives sunlight MUST be larger than πr^2. If Earth received energy equal to the area of a disc with equal radius, Earth´s shadow would be a straight tube. It´s not, it´s a cone. Since the shadow is a cone, you have sunlight coming in at angles, because the Sun´s diameter is much larger than earth. Using the factor 4/3 which is used for radiation entropy when radiation passes through a spherical shell, and also used for radiation pressure, we can see that it´s a perfect match when using (4/3)^2 for a double shell(atmosphere and surface) combined with the area for a hemisphere. All calculations I see miss that you need P=4πr^2σ287^4 from sunlight. Not mine.
(TSI2πr^2)/(4/3)^2=4πr^2σ287^4
(4/3)^2 is the rate of how sunlight diminishes when passing through the spherical shells because of the curvature, and it makes albedo obsolete. For the first shell, the atmosphere, the “albedo” is 25%, but sunlight passes a second shell when absorbed by the surface and in total is 44%. Albedo is a consequence, not a cause.
For mars you have a receiving area that´s very close to a disc because of the longer distance to the sun, there it works with πr^2. But for Earth you have a much larger intercepting area, about 55% larger. That makes a huge difference when doing an energy balance. The Earth is not “hotter than it should be”, it´s exactly the temperature it´s supposed to be.
Connecting sunlight directly to surface emission puts hard limits on the temperature range to between 11C and 15C.
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Herb Rose
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Hi Lit,
If you are going to just use geometry to determine the temperature of the Earth then you would expect similar results for the moon where the temperature varies from -230 to +240. It is the evaporation of water from the surface that moderates and determines the temperature on the Earth.
Herb
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Alan
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It is always good to see Joe Postma taking on the sceptics. Happer is utterly useless in my opinion and is effectively a fence sitter who does not understand any of the arguments.
I wonder whether Happer would consider it appropriate to use the average temperature outside his house to size the heating system it needs.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Joseph,
You correctly identified that a fundamental problem is ignorance. Except I am the only one who admits to be ignorant and no one has yet referred to the information about which I am NOT ignorant.
In 1914 Crew and de Salvio’s English translation of Galileo’s Italian ‘Dialogues Concerning Two Sciences” was published. In it I read: “Seeing that water has less formness [consistenza] then the finest of powder. Om fact has no consistence whatever, we may, it seems to me, very reasonably conclude that the smallest particles into which it can be resolved are quite different from finite and divisible particles; indeed the only difference I am able to discover is that the former are indivisible. The exquisite transparency of water favors this view; for the most transparent crystal when broken and ground and reduced to powder loses its transparency; the finer the grinding the greater the loss; but in the case of water where the attrition is of highest degree we have extreme transparency. Gold and silver when pulverized with acids [aqque fori] more finely than is possible with any file still remains powders, and do not become fluids until the finest particles [gl’ indivisibili] of fire or of the rays of the sun dissolve them, as I think, into their ultimate indivisible, and infinitely small components.”
I have quoted from this translation because it seems the translators might not be familiar with what acid [aqque fori] is. If one is ignorant of the history of a group of people known as alchemists and of modern chemistry, one cannot appreciate what this ridiculed group had done before 1638.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Tom Anderson
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I find that one of Dr. Happer’s most irritating shortcomings is failure to note that in the satellite images CO2’s major peak radiation point at ~15mμ (between 13.26 to 17.07μm) has a temperature, by Wilhelm Wien’s now 130-year-old Displacement Law, of ~193K or -80°C – and CO2 has removed a huge amount of the energy at that wavelength on its way to the surface. Find one of those graphs and look how little there is to radiate out. The -80°C radiant activity has been observed by repeated experiment and observation. What kind of quasi-information is Dr. Happer getting away with anyway?
My understanding is that satellite images of the sun’s radiant energy show ~1,361 W/m2 at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere (TOA) Further reading suggests, “A widely accepted average of energy passing through the atmosphere reckons that atmospheric forces immediately remove about 0.35 of that observed TOA energy, providing the atmosphere 889 W/m2 within the [graphed satellite image]’s limited range.”. By the time the energy strikes the surface the Earth’s average 0.70 albedo has been calculated to reduce it to 622 W/m2, at which point surface non-radiant cooling mechanisms – conduction and convection – can cool it further to observed energy levels.
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