Where Are We in the Civilisation Cycle? What You Told Me
In my recent video I showed a simple chart of the cycle that civilisations seem to pass through: rise, prosperity, complacency, decline, collapse, forgetting and renewal. Then I asked you a straightforward question: where do you think we are now?
You answered in your hundreds, so I went through the comments to see what patterns came out.
Your verdict: decline, heading for collapse
The consensus was striking. Of the comments that named a stage, roughly:
· 55–60 percent said we are in decline, often adding that we’re heading towards collapse
· About 20 percent said we are already in collapse
· About 10 percent placed us in complacency, or at the point where complacency tips into decline
· About 10 percent said the stages overlap, or questioned the model itself
· A handful said we’re in the forgetting stage, or even rising again
The above graphic represents your comments on our current stage in the civilisation cycle 55 percent believe we are in decline and 20 percent are ready in the collapse stage.
The most-liked comment was also one of the shortest:
“Now Decline. Then Collapse.”
attracted 153 likes. Another viewer put it this way:
“The west has been in decline my entire life. It is just accelerating fast enough that people are noticing.”
One reader noticed the same thing I did:
“I don’t remember seeing so many comments all with same or very similar conclusions.”
In my view this is perhaps one of the most powerful points made. While the UK and Australia are 12,000 miles apart, we seem to be developing the same parallel problems at the same time.
Similar difficulties are being experienced simultaneously in Canada the United States and many European countries. In the past countries would have been geographically isolated. The situation is arguably worse today as we are in a globalised community.
The observation that all of these problems seem to be developing in our different countries at the same is a curious point.
Does this indicate there are common international reasons or even instigators for our shared problems?
In terms of our current stage in the civilisation cycle, my personal view is that we are in the complacency stage, potentially already heading into decline. We still have the prevailing view amongst our fellow citizens that things are going to carry on as they are now, into an indeterminant future.
Some people even believe that things are going to improve. However, because we are already very complacent, in my view this makes decline inevitable – unless we choose to make some potentially dramatic changes. Obviously after decline, collapse can come with potentially serious consequences for societies groups, families and individuals.
The mood: worried, but not without hope
The overall your feedback tone was pessimistic. Many comments were fearful or resigned:
“So depressing. I had hope for us.”
Another viewer said:
“I wonder about my kids’ futures.”
Some of the most moving comments came from older viewers comparing today with the world they grew up in. One said “at 65 I never ever thought I’d see the world in this condition”, and an 80-year-old viewer reflected on life in the US since the 1950s.
A significant minority were more hopeful. Several argued that collapse isn’t inevitable:
“It is possible to go straight to Renewal, it has happened more times in history.”
One thoughtful comment pointed out that Western Europe has broadly progressed for a thousand years despite setbacks, and ended:
“The embers are still glowing. This isn’t over and done with yet.”
Another viewer simply wrote:
“I think we are rising. All of those negative things you speak of have been worse in the past.”
Why you think we’re declining
When people explained their answers, several clear themes emerged. This is perhaps the most pragmatically important part of your comments. It gives us particular things that we can improve in the short to medium term to improve the prospects of our civilisation future.
1.Moral and spiritual decline. This was the largest group. Many viewers spoke of losing our “moral compass”, of values being turned upside down, and of turning away from faith. A good number interpreted events through a Christian, end-times lens.
2.Leaders and elites. Many blamed politicians and the wealthy. Some saw complacency and incompetence: “Politicians are totally complacent and clueless how to solve problems that they have created.” Others went further and felt the decline was deliberate, writing “all by design” or “organised decline”.
3. Practical, everyday decline. Some of the most concrete comments pointed to things viewers see around them: roads, schools and utilities struggling, the cost of living, council tax, and infrastructure not keeping pace with population. One viewer traced it all back to the 2008 bank bailouts.
4. Forgetting history. Many people felt we are already losing our knowledge of the past, our heritage and the lessons history should have taught us. A few worried that a solar flare or power failure could wipe out our digital records.
5. Technology and AI. Several viewers felt AI makes everything less predictable and could speed the cycle up dramatically.
6. The environment. A smaller number argued that the real issue is the state of the biosphere, not civilisation.
It depends where you live
Many of you answered for your own country, and the comments came from all over the world: the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, Belgium, New Zealand and beyond. The UK, Canada and wider Europe were most often described as already collapsing.
Poland was mentioned more than once as a contrasting example.
Is the model right?
Not everyone accepted the chart. Some of the most interesting comments challenged it:
· Several said the stages run in parallel, so different parts of society can be in different stages at once
· Others said it’s a spiral, not a circle, or that we can jump from one stage to another
· One viewer felt the cycle is too deterministic and that history shows recovery is possible
· Another pointed out that “the West” has never been a single unified civilisation, so it can’t be analysed as one
These are fair points.
Feedback on the video
Most of the feedback was warm, and I’m grateful for it. Several of you said the videos feel “like still being in class”.
There was also some constructive criticism. One viewer felt the vintage-style graphics were dated and suggested using more modern imagery. A few people were confused because a version of the video had appeared earlier. Point taken on both counts.
A word about spam
One thing worth flagging: a number of comments came from accounts claiming “As a doctor…” and recommending the same health book, or posting generic praise like “This is exactly what I needed to hear today.” These are almost certainly automated spam, and one had gathered 48 likes. Please be cautious about acting on recommendations like these.
Final thoughts
What stands out most is that so many people, from so many countries, independently reached the same conclusion. Whether you see that as a warning, a prophecy or simply a mood of our times, it tells us something real about how people are feeling.
Perhaps the best question came from a viewer who wrote: “Anyone have a set of tiers of any society that kept itself from collapse? What can we all do now?”
That may be the subject of a future video. In the meantime, let me know in the comments: do you think the cycle can be broken?
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