What does endemic COVID look like?
Dr Clare Craig reminded me yesterday of this little gem I co-authored with her and Dr Jonathan Engler over two years ago for the Daily Sceptic
It’s actually a pretty decent read even though we were so naïve to think that COVID would have been endemic by the end of autumn 2020.
I mean, how could we possibly have anticipated the extent to which the mRNA experiment would completely reverse that natural progression?!
Upon her request, I took the liberty of redoing the first chart now that we have so much more data. In fact, given that I paid for it, I used the dataset that includes primary cause of death so there is no speculation around the recoding of many other respiratory deaths to COVID.
Figure 1 – Seasonal Excess Deaths, All Ages, England by Select Causes of Death, 2014 to 2022
The first observation from this analysis is that non-respiratory deaths show no signal in terms of excess1.
I’ve said it many times that the potential impact of the COVID “vaccine” to exacerbate COVID mortality (or respiratory mortality in general) is substantially more material than the other fatal adverse reactions to the jab.
Naturally, I’m not denying that these deaths exist, nor that they are very important, just that they do not manifest (yet) at the population level in terms of excess. It may be that because they affect younger people, they are being swamped by the respiratory deaths of the older ones. I haven’t checked this but there is age-stratification in the data so anyone else can take a look if they like.
Nor do I dismiss the possibility that some of these non-respiratory deaths may well have been incorrectly attributed to COVID either and of course, that the baseline might ought to be lower due to the pull forward effect.
The second observation, however, is more interesting. It is clear that COVID replaced many other respiratory deaths that would have occurred anyway. We can see this by looking at the yearly respiratory (excluding COVID) deaths.
As it happens, in season 2019-20, which includes “epidemic” COVID, the tally is pretty much in line with expectation (circa 20k).
However, whether it’s genuinely COVID out-competing all the other respiratory pathogens (viral and bacterial) or just misattribution on the death certificates, it’s abundantly clear in both seasons 2020-21 and 2021-22 that respiratory (excluding COVID) deaths are much lower than we would expect.
In 2020-21, we’re actually registering a deficit!
Now, although the implication of this is that they’ve over-egged COVID somewhat (we already knew this even though we still don’t really know for sure why – he says with his naïve hat back on), if we look at all respiratory deaths (i.e. including COVID), it is also evident that we still have a problem, “in spite” of the “vaccine”.
Again, as it happens, season 2020-21 is actually worse than the prior season which includes epidemic COVID. Furthermore, the really worse bit occurs after the mass experiment. Hence the source of Craig, Engler and Smalley naïvely calling it wrong!
More furthermore, at 35k excess deaths, even season 2021-22 comes in 4-sigma higher than the expectation set between 2014 and 2019. In normal circumstances, public health authorities would be declaring an emergency investigation of this. How times change!
Or is it just the way deaths are coded?
1 Later update: I’ve taken another look at this and will caveat that statement. It is apparent that the “low season” deaths do not return to baseline both after lockdown spring of 2020 and ever since the mass “vaccination” campaign.
So, there is evidence of higher excess non-respiratory mortality, it just appears to be chronic so its effects will most likely be felt over a longer period, ultimately making it just as bad as the acute increase in respiratory mortality.
See more here substack.com
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Russ D
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To end this LIE we must bring all involved in the PLANdemic to justice. Every step of the PLANdemic was carefully planned and executed, how else can you get zero govts, medical institutions, media corps, etc speaking out against lockdowns, masks, vax, etc.
The majority of the world population are so dumbed down they can no longer think rationally or logically. They are stupid Sheeple being led to the slaughter
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