Weather is primarily dominated by regional effects

Written by Dr. Matthew Wielicki on June 12, 2024. Posted in Current News

Factors such as ocean currents, local topography, and atmospheric pressure systems play significant roles in shaping regional weather patterns

For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts weather across the Pacific, leading to varied effects like increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others.

Similarly, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences the climate of Europe, making it milder than other regions at similar latitudes.

Local topography also exerts a substantial influence on weather. Mountain ranges can block air movement, causing precipitation on the windward side and dry conditions on the leeward side.

The formation of the Himalayas, primarily due to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates around 50 million years ago, significantly influenced global weather patterns.

This immense mountain range affects atmospheric circulation and monsoon systems, creating diverse and complex climatic conditions in the region.

My advisor, and myself for a short stint after my PhD, have conducted extensive research on the geological history of the Himalayas with implications to their climatic impacts. The work primarily focuses on understanding the timing and processes involved in the uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.

These regional factors are complex and multifaceted, often overshadowing the broader impacts of global temperature increases or CO2 levels.

Pretending that global temperature or CO2 levels have a direct and uniform effect on local weather is misleading. It simplifies the many factors influencing weather and leads to a general public misunderstanding and often irrational fears.

For instance, attributing a single weather event to global warming without considering regional influences can erode public trust in scientific explanations.

The oversimplification and misattribution of weather events to global factors like CO2 can contribute to the erosion of public trust in science and scientific institutions.

A 2023 Pew Research Center survey found that only 23 percent of Americans have a great deal of confidence in scientists to act in the best interests of the public, down from 39 percent in 2020.

Additionally, 27 percent of Americans now say they have little or no confidence in scientists, up from 12 percent in April 2020. Trust in medical scientists has followed a similar decline, with confidence dropping significantly since the early stages of the pandemic.

Political polarization also plays a significant role in these perceptions. Among Republicans, only 13 percent express a great deal of confidence in scientists, a sharp decline from 27 percent in 2020.

In contrast, 37 percent of Democrats maintain a high level of trust, though this too has decreased from 55 percent in 2020. This partisan divide exacerbates the challenges in conveying scientific information and maintaining public trust.

The decline in trust is further exacerbated by the perception that scientific information is being politicized. A 2022 study by the Edelman Trust Barometer reported that 59 percent of people believe that scientists are often influenced by political ideology.

This perception undermines the credibility of scientific communication, making it harder for the public to distinguish between genuine scientific findings and politically motivated statements.

In summary, weather is primarily influenced by regional factors such as ocean currents, topography, and atmospheric pressure systems, rather than by global temperature or CO2 levels alone.

Oversimplifying the causes of local weather phenomena and attributing them solely to global factors can mislead the public and erode trust in science and scientific institutions.

To restore and maintain public trust, it is crucial for scientists and media to communicate the complexities of weather systems accurately and transparently.

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