Weakening Hadley Cell explains 20-year downturn in Western Pacific
In a meeting with Dr. Willie Soon, Dr. Ronan Connolly, and Dr. Michael Connolly their study on the weakening of the Hadley Cell provided a compelling explanation for the 20-year downturn in the Western Pacific (WPAC), which serves as the real canary in the coal mine for tropical climatic changes
That canary is now coming home to roost in the Atlantic. While the Atlantic has been in a frenzy over the past several years as it tries to take up the slack, the distorted warming has likely impacted vertical velocity patterns over the tropics (which is what a weakening Hadley Cell would imply).
We now see storms developing further north, being more compact, and featuring shorter tracks. Storms like Erin are the exception, and the main development region is almost a misnomer now in both the Atlantic and the Western Pacific.
This is yet another case where what climate alarmists have been pushing is going the other way. The flurry of impacting storms on the U.S. coast gave them cover to ignore the Pacific.
Yet most of these storms had much shorter tracks, exploded in intensity within two days of landfall during phase 2 of the MJO, and size-wise could not hold a candle to similar Saffir-Simpson rated storms of the past.
What is amazing to me is how, because of ‘climate change’ hype, all this is being ignored.
- The Western Pacific with lower ACE, lower ACE per storm, and a shift north of development areas compared to the 1950s.
- The need for the Saffir-Simpson scale to be replaced by a scale like WeatherBELL’s, where size matters as much as peak wind speed near the center—something even the Hurricane Center has admitted (size matters).
Both of these have plenty to do with stopping all the nonsense we’ve heard in past years about storms getting worse.
Because if we can line up all the storms by comparing the Saffir-Simpson rating against the more extensive and descriptive power and impact scale—which takes into account the extent of 64, 50, and 34 kt winds, as well as sudden increases or decreases in pressure—we get a much better look at where we stand versus other years.
As for the Western Pacific, if you’ve been following me, I’ve been pointing this out as a counter to the climate hysteria. They spout all this nonsense about things getting worse—yet globally, when the areas that produce 60% of the Northern Hemisphere ACE are way down (this year could be a record low), you don’t hear a peep.
They love it when a storm goes in and causes major damage, either ignorant of the fact that it’s a way of life, or common in that part of the world. They average eight or nine ‘super typhoons’ a year, and if one shows up, it’s a gawking show.
This year, by the way, none so far.
I don’t think the Atlantic basin is done, and I believe we are likely to see a 2-3 week flurry of development (in fact, last year, the “Attention Gov. Desantis and SE governors” tweet was issued Sept 8, on Sept 6 I put this out)
with enough impact to reach the bottom end of our impact ranges in our forecast. That has always been where I’ve been steering the discussion here—not storms in the middle of nowhere.
But that being said, it’s likely that the distorted warming, along with the rapid drop-off in SST and WV as we shake off Tonga, is having a big impact on the Atlantic as well, as it’s a sign of a lot of sinking air over the tropics relative to averages.
Like I said, it’s been going on in the Pacific, but it’s convenient that it’s ignored. And for a crowd that is so concerned about global this and global that, ignoring one of the largest signals of what’s actually happening confirms what I wrote about here:
That’s the way they push this—with deception, distortion, and delusion.
But just remember, what we are seeing in the Atlantic now has been happening in the basin. That is far more important if one is going to try to claim global climate links, the Western Pacific.
And like so many of the pronouncements of a climate cabal that should be held accountable.
See more here cfact.org
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
I respect Joe Bastardi and the others he named as being rightly respected climatologists (meteorologists), However, I observe they have a problem common in the historical physical sciences. This problem is they tend to forget well known observations when they have not yet been able explain these known observations.
While I have earned a doctorate in laboratory physical chemistry, I
cannot claim to be a NATURALIST whose laboratory is the Earth and our Solar System. But I can read and have read about the unpredictable changes in Local ‘Normal’ Weather patterns, which, occur for a year, or so, almost World Wide. This observed ‘abnormal weather period’ has been termed an “El Niño” event. But one cannot read these words in this article.
A fact is Newton was honest and admitted he could not explain GRAVITY. But he used his explanation of semidiurnal ocean tides to prove the existence of gravity despite the observed fact that all semidiurnal daily tides were not identical or all locations even semidiurnal.
I like quotes and one favorite is “The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession.” (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle) Maybe there is some critical data not yet found or considered.
Have a good day
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Boris Badenov
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I don’t have much beyond some collage but I do have a few decades under my belt. “Living” in California, nobody lives there any more but that another story. This past summer was AWOL in my little corner of the workers paradise, the Santa Clara Valley, aka Silicon Valley. We’ve always averaged 8 – 12 days over 100ºf, also our humidity has been about 40%. This year, not one day over 100ºf and humidity has been 50% and up to 75%, a few times higher. I can say that our weather has been changing for 7 decades, thunder storms in the summer, rain, hot. Now it’s been cooling off, rains are tapering off, we use to have lots of flooding a bit North of us and now, nothing, not complaining about that. I’m guessing that all of the EV’s had done their jobs. /s
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Boris,
You described the differences relative humidifies 7 decades ago and now. Can you explain how this years higher humidities have produced the different weathers between the weathers back then and the weathers observed this year?
Have a good day
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Paul
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Yet another article that has several acronyms without explanation that leaves me wondering just what has been said. Seriously, how hard is it to put in what AC means on the end of WPAC? That’s only one.
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