Vaccines, reasons for concern, part 3
If the Covid vaccines work, why are highly vaccinated countries like Israel and the United Kingdom seeing spikes in caseloads?
These questions are separate from the issue of whether vaccines should be mandated or their side effects. No serious person thinks masks protect their wearers, for example, but we mandated those for more than a year.
But as we enter an ugly new phase in the vaccine debate, I want to offer a theoretical framework to help think about the data we’re seeing – and to explain why these questions would be hard to answer even if the public health authorities were being honest.
To be clear, I’m focusing on the vaccines used in Western countries, especially the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, which are now essentially the only vaccines used in the United States. (The AstraZeneca DNA/AAV vaccine is still widely used in Europe.)
Also to be clear, in this piece, I am not discussing how the vaccines work at the cellular level. Instead I’m looking at the population-level data we are now seeing – how many people are being infected with or dying from Covid.
It’s crucial to remember that “work” is a highly elastic term. The spectrum runs from:
1) Vaccines end disease in essentially everyone, essentially forever. (This wouldn’t be impossible; it is true for some other vaccines.)
2) Vaccines do not eliminate all cases, but they work very well, especially against severe disease or death.
3) Vaccines reduce disease significantly with slowly declining effectiveness.
4) Vaccines work for short periods, but fail quickly.
5) Vaccines are essentially ineffective, especially in the people high risk of death from Covid.
6) Vaccines actually worsen Covid.
We can probably eliminate theories 1 and 6 off the top. The clinical trials that Pfizer and Moderna ran last year didn’t show a 100 percent reduction in Covid cases. They also showed no evidence of what’s called antibody-dependent enhancement, that they would cause people to create antibodies that actually helped the virus attack our cells.
The trials did seem to show very sharp reductions in Covid infections, on the order of 95 percent. And no one in the trials died from Covid. This led vaccine proponents to claim that the shots might eliminate nearly all coronavirus deaths – theory 2.
As I explained in my Unreported Truths booklet about the vaccines (https://tinyurl.com/pkzrx76n), this view ignored a huge and almost certainly intentional flaw in the trials. They enrolled only a handful of the older people most at risk from Covid.
As a result, very few UNVACCINATED (as well as vaccinated) people developed serious infections in the trials, and only one unvaccinated person out of more than 30,000 in the mRNA trials died of Covid.
This flaw means the trials couldn’t provide definitive evidence on how well the vaccines work against serious cases of Covid. In contrast, the trials for monoclonal antibodies did prove they worked, because the companies that ran those focused on people at high risk.
The trials had at least two other major flaws. They followed most participants for only about two months after the second dose. And when they calculated vaccine efficacy, they ignored cases that occurred just after the first dose was given.
This meant that when Pfizer and Moderna said in November 2020 their vaccines were about 95% effective at preventing Covid, what they meant was that the vaccines were 95% effective at peak protection FOR A MATTER OF WEEKS.
Neither the companies nor anyone else had no way of knowing how well the vaccines would work in a year, much less in five years – or 20 years. They simply did not have any long-term data. How could they? The vaccines hadn’t even existed until months before, and they used technology that had never been approved for any drug or vaccine.
But the political and media to encourage vaccinations was enormous. Public health experts ignored these potential pitfalls. Instead they decided to press vaccinations as quickly as possible on everyone.
During the spring, their gamble appeared to have paid off. In Israel and Britain, the two countries that had the earliest and most aggressive national vaccine campaigns, new infections and deaths dropped sharply.
This success came with an asterisk, in that both countries actually saw sharp increases in deaths in January as they offered first doses to elderly people at high risk from Covid.
The phenomenon of the post-first-dose spike is real, though the media has refused to report on it. A Danish study in March found that nursing home residents had a 40 percent higher chance of getting Covid in the two weeks after being vaccinated. (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3abehm54)
Nonetheless, after the rocky start, British and Israeli cases and deaths dropped dramatically through the spring – especially after people received their second doses.
In the United Kingdom, cases fell about 97 percent. The country had almost as many cases EACH DAY in early January as in all of May. Israel saw a similar trend. And deaths followed cases down.
The drops led to considerable chest-thumping among vaccine advocates and the media. “UK eager for a big reopening thanks to vaccine success,” the Associated Press wrote on May 14.
“Israel to end COVID-19 restrictions after vaccine success,” Reuters parroted nine days later.
Unfortunately, the good news didn’t last. At the beginning of June, Covid cases started to rise in both Israel and Britain. And in the last three weeks, cases have soared, rising 15-fold since mid-May in the United Kingdom.
At first, vaccine advocates tried to argue that the rise was mainly happening in unvaccinated people. They now acknowledge that argument is not true. Testing shows that many cases are in vaccinated people (and no country with two-thirds of its adults vaccinated with two doses, like Britain, could have an increase like this unless vaccinated people were also being infected).
In early July, Israel reported that the vaccines appeared to have fallen to 64 percent effectiveness. An independent analyst reported that effectiveness had fallen below 30 percent by the end of the month.
Now advocates are trying to minimize the significance of the fact that vaccinated people are becoming infected by arguing that they are not being hospitalized or dying.
That theory is also falling apart. The number of people hospitalized with severe Covid in Israel has more than doubled since late June. And an Israeli government advisor acknowledged July 5 that more than half of serious Covid cases were occurring in “fully vaccinated” people. (https://tinyurl.com/25skj7u9)
Data from England and Scotland show similar trends. In Scotland, hospitalizations have risen more than fivefold in the last several weeks. And more than half the people who died of Covid in the last week of June were fully vaccinated.
We should expect those trends to continue. Serious cases lag positive tests, because most people do not become sick enough to be hospitalized for at least several days after testing positive. Deaths and death reporting lag still further. It would be surprising if deaths did not jump through the rest of July.
Because of the way countries count cases, these figures understate just how bad the vaccine crisis has already become. People are not considered to be “fully vaccinated” until two weeks after they receive their second dose – or a minimum of five to six weeks after the first dose, depending on the vaccine. So many cases in people who have already been vaccinated are lumped into the unvaccinated category.
If the vaccines provided 10 years of 95 percent protection, that delay wouldn’t matter. But if they are losing efficacy within months, the lack of protection they offer at the beginning cuts sharply into their overall value. The total “area under the curve” – the total number of cases from start to finish, from when the vaccines are administered to when they stop working – is what matters.
Public health authorities are also trying to blame the “Delta” variant, which supposedly is more communicable than the original Sars-Cov-2, for the rise in cases. This argument also makes little sense. In India, which was the original home of the Delta variant and where almost no one is vaccinated, cases have fallen 90 percent since early May.
Further, Delta is merely another in a long line of coronavirus variants that public health experts have argued are especially transmissible and/or dangerous. Yet all the variants have only tiny changes from the original Sars-Cov-2, and none has been proven to be more dangerous.
So what do we know now?
The vaccines are failing. The rise in cases is impossible to argue.
The spring drop in cases – in Britain, Israel, and the United States – appears to have come from some combination of a general seasonal decline, preexisting immunity, the end of the post-first-dose spike, and short-term vaccine protection.
Theory #2 above – “Vaccines do not eliminate all cases, but they work very well, especially against severe disease or death” – now appears provably incorrect.
Theory #3 – “Vaccines reduce disease significantly with slowly declining effectiveness” – is still barely viable, but on the ropes.
Alongside the data, the fact that Pfizer and Moderna are desperately pressing booster shots offers compelling evidence that the vaccines do not provide long-term protection. If the companies that make the vaccines don’t think they work for more than a few months, why should anyone else?
Boosters are important enough that I will have to return to them in another Substack. But for now simply know that we encourage boosters more than once a decade for only one other vaccine, the flu vaccine. Flu vaccines have far fewer side effects than the Covid vaccines (and are known not to work very well).
Alongside theory #3, we’re left with #4 and #5: “Vaccines work for short periods, but fail quickly” and “Vaccines are essentially ineffective, especially in the people at highest risk of death from Covid.”
At this point, #4 appears to be the most likely. Of course, even if they lose their effectiveness over time, vaccines may offer partial protection and reduce disease severity in some people, which would be a point for case #3.
But they may also fail most quickly in the people who need them the most, a point for theory #5. Scientific papers about the level of antibodies people develop following vaccination provide some evidence for this concern. (Again, the details will have to wait for another Substack.)
I hope it is clear by know that to know for sure just how quickly the vaccines lose their effectiveness will require very careful AND HONEST statistical analysis of complex data.
Instead of offering that, however, American public health authorities are doubling down on their promise of vaccine effectiveness. They trumpet unverified statistics that appear increasingly implausible in the light of the more granular data coming from Israel and especially Britain (which has excellent data from a national health care system and a commitment to publishing weekly reports that cannot be easily manipulated).
For now, the United States has not seen the big increases in cases that have hit Britain and Israel since May. But the mRNA vaccines work the same everywhere. So it is hard to see why America will not, unless natural infection-generated immunity is so much higher here that it blunts the impact of vaccine failure.
Over the next few weeks, the data will bear very close watching. But we already know this much. As public health authorities and the media press vaccinations ever harder on young people – who are at almost no risk from Covid anyway – their unwillingness to face difficult realities will only feed conspiracy theories and resistance.
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Hrb Rose
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Theory #7: The injection are introducing, or causing the recipient to produce, toxic spike proteins that will seriously damage his immune system, his health, and lead to premature disability and death.
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Herb Rose
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During the animal trials on the SARS-1 mRNA vaccine all the ferrets survived the initial exposure to the disease then died on the subsequent exposure. The ruling out of ADE is premature.
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Carbon Bigfoot
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Unless my senility is showing……”Neither the companies nor anyone else had no way of knowing how well the vaccines would work in a year, much less in five years – or 20 years. They simply did not have any long-term data. How could they? The vaccines hadn’t even existed until months before, and they used technology that had never been approved for any drug or vaccine.”
This seems inconsistent with the evidence provided by Dr. David Martin in his video July 12 posted here: https://principia-scientific.com/dr-david-martin-theres-no-variant-not-novel-no-pandemic/
I guess few people actually spent an hour listening to the bombshell facts as I did.
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Herb Rose
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Hi Carbon,
I watched Dr. martin’s video showing the long term planning of this crime and there is no doubt that by giving U.S. defense dollars to China to develop a more contagious and virulent pathogen that Fauci has committed treason. The question remains was this due to ego and greed or was there a more sinister motivation for this mass murder.
Herb
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Herb:
You’re still drinking all the covid Kool aid. As PSI video by Brendon D. Murphy pointed out, this fraud has been planned for well over a decade including using the China ploy. Harry Vox exposed the covid fraud in 2014 from the Rockefeller Foundation documents of 2010. The Zionists control China just like they do Jewmerica. They are all in it together to control the herd. If the U.S. is funding China to develop a more virulent strain they have done one hell of a sorry job.
Nothing has been developed but more propaganda just like with the phony AIDS “epidemic.” In the video below dr. Andrew Kauffman explains the step by step process used to make the imaginary covid 19. They can’t even produce a purified tissue sample. How would you suppose they can make it more effective? Viruses don’t even exist. The only thing Fauci and his big Pharma Zionist allies could do is basically the same thing con man Pasteur did. Use a toxin. Thats what the graphene oxide is for.
Viruses don’t exist and vaccines have never worked. If they did they could prove it easily with the Rivers postulates. They can’t even get the first step. They just use “experts” like Martin to baffle everyone with technical jargon.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/4H2sCxMiq2yo/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/a7RSTEMwWi72/
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Alan
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The results for the Pfizer vaccine and the claimed efficacy were based on data collected 7 days after the last person on the trial received the second vaccination. This is not a sufficient time to make any conclusions. Pfizer reported the relative risk of 95%. Out of 36.621 people on the trial only 170 people were infected. In other words, the trial showed that about 0.5% of people are likely to be infected and so the vaccine has a marginal effect. The infections are probably mostly errors in testing or fake errors generated by the NHS app.
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Charles Higley
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“We can probably eliminate theories 1 and 6 off the top. The clinical trials that Pfizer and Moderna ran last year didn’t show a 100 percent reduction in Covid cases. They also showed no evidence of what’s called antibody-dependent enhancement, that they would cause people to create antibodies that actually helped the virus attack our cells.”
The second sentence is meaningless, because there never was a defined virus to keep track of. They just have a nonspecific purposely-vague PCR test that can be used to pretend cases wherever they want. What about the hordes of jabbed people who are testing positive, supposedly due to a new mythical variant or two? Testing people who are asymptomatic is just (a) stupid, (b) insane, or (c) purposeful to keep the fear alive. I choose (c).
As the jabs only stimulate antibodies to one protein and not the entire virus, antibody-dependent enhancement as well as pathogen priming are both real possibilities and are more likely outcomes than for the jabs to offer and real protection against infection.
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Peter
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Firstly, these are NOT vaccines.
Secondly, for the UK, there was a SLOW uptake of injections over the January to April 2021 period that saw the preciptous decline in cases. In other words, the delcine in cases had nothing to do with the injections.
Shame on you for intentionally obfuscating these points.
Thirdly, there is option number 7. The injections of SARS-COV2 spike proteins are causing the uptick in “cases” (which use a proven unsuitable RT-PCR test) by ACTIVELY INFECTING PEOPLE.
Lastly, why no discussion on the mounting deaths caused by the injections? tens of thousands of people have died (2,000 a week now in the US following todays release for weekly data to 9 July 2021 totalling 12,000 dead so far, another 17,500 dead in the EU, dying at a slightly faster than 2,000 a week rate ..another 1,500 in the UK),
now add the millions injured by the injections (half a million in the US, 1.7 million in the EU and 1 million in the UK).
the issue here is that LESS THAN 5% OF EVENTS ARE BEING REPORTED. that implies that in the US, UK and EU alone, 600,000 have died and 60 million have been injured.
isn’t that in the least but relevant to your thesis?
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Tom
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How are new cases being verified? What proven and accepted testing method with any standards are being used? We cannot depend on PCR and any results from using this method can be disregarded. So what is the “new” testing method we are not hearing about? Until there is a testing method that has been proven to provide 99% accuracy, this is all another round of fake cases and deaths.
We now know that CoV-2 was manufactured using dozens of patents granted by the CDC and is not a naturally occurring virus. How do you test for something that has no specific genetic DNA/RNA makeup? The fake pandemic is being ramped up again to scare more people into rushing out and getting poison injections. Not buying any of this new variant crappola.
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Doug Harrison
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Your scepticism does you credit Tom. There are dozens of errors and half truths in this article. For one there are no such things as “antibodys”. There are lymphocytes which are produced in the spleen, liver and Lymph glands. These gentlemen go about taking out damaged and diseased cells and putting them into the waste system which then excretes them via nose, stool and urine plus sweat. This is why the criminals want you to be subjected to nasal swabs as there are commonly, especially in winter, plenty of viral waste particles to be found there and with up to 45 cycles being used they can’t miss finding something to call a positive. There is lots more I could write but it’s 2.25 pm in New Zealand and 3 am in Britain so almost nobody is going to read this.
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Mark Tapley
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Hello Harrison:
And the narrative of the fake virus is controlled by the Zionist MSM and political operatives all over the world. It is amazing that the great majority of people spend more time figuring out what junk movie to watch than would ever spend an hour learning the truth of this huge medical fraud. The fake PCR test was a brilliant move but also a weak link that can be used agains them. Dr. Kaufman states that no one should ever consent to a PCR test since the swab that is shoved right into the trigeminal nerve going into the brain, is very likely contaminated with something (graphene oxide). This is a very delicate and critical area anyway.
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Tom O
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My few thoughts on the test.
First, how do you test the efficacy of a vaccine versus placebo if you don’t have a virus for exposure? Seriously. They have never isolated the virus, so how do you test a vaccine’s efficacy unless you DO have “gold standard virus” to expose them to? Did they just run 46 rep PCR tests to insure they had covid positives to expose people to? No virus, no test.
Second, only 1 out 30000 people in the test died – sounds like pretty standard number of deaths – that’s a survival rate of 99.996%, not far off from the survival rate of healthy people 60 and under to start with.
Third, the “stage one and two” tests were run with a specific “inoculation formula.” Since the open 3rd stage test we are now in, they have changed the formulation a number of times. How could that possibly be allowed? How you can say you are using a formula that uses XYZ for encapsulation of the “spike” or the mRNA, then switch to ZWE or FGD or what ever and say you are still using the same formula? How did this get allowed?
This has gone far beyond just trying to force people to “take the jab” that at least went through some preliminary studies, it has now become “take the jab” of we haven’t a farkng clue because they don’t tell us what’s in it and they keep changing the formula anyway.
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Roslyn Ross
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The author appears to have ignored/dismissed the warnings given by a number of science-medical experts that those receiving these genetic vaccines could become ‘hyperalert’ to Covid and in fact any coronavirus, resulting in more severe sickness and death.
Could not the Delta variant, since Covid has never been properly isolated according to science-medical practice, simply be the effects of these genetic vaccines as previously warned by those who were mocked, demonised and dismissed for their decision to speak out?
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Barry
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Roslyn if you read the earlier article here by Dr Martin,you would find that the d variant is exactly what you speak of. It’s the same genome sequence just starts and stops at a different place in the sequence. We are being manipulated beyond belief and the general public gullible as they are think their govt is helping them through this when in fact the exact opposite is happening
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barry paul robinson
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The information about injecting poison and junk science was out there in the 1950s.
https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/542b75dd-6da5-4a25-aef0-a2c975d37754/downloads/THE%20POISONED%20NEEDLE.pdf
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