ULTIMA THULE – Probability of Gravitational (vs. Electromagnetic?) Formation

Written by Dr. Raymond HV Gallucci, P.E. (ret.) on March 16, 2020. Posted in Current News

The discovery of the “contact binary,” double-lobed, planetesimal Ultima Thule (since renamed as 486958 Arrokoth) “on 26 June 2014 … using the Hubble Space Telescope” prompted mainstream astrophysicists to cite it as evidence for formation via “gravitational accretion.”

It was the object of the New Horizons space probe flyby on January 1, 2019, from which additional data were compiled. [1]

(This is an excerpt – the complete article is available at https://vixra.org/abs/2003.0129 )

“[Ultima Thule, renamed as] 486958 Arrokoth, is a trans-Neptunian object located in the Kuiper Belt.  It is a ‘contact binary,’ … composed of two planetesimals …, nicknamed ‘Ultima’ and ‘Thule’ … With the New Horizons space probe’s flyby … on 1 January 2019, Arrokoth became the farthest and most primitive object in the Solar System visited by a spacecraft … Arrokoth … [consists] of two lobes attached by a bright, narrow neck.  The two lobes were likely once objects that had merged in a slow collision.”

The mainstream explanation of its formation is as follows: [2]

“Ultima Thule coalesced from a cloud of rocky, icy material far from the sun.  These smaller chunks first formed two larger objects, which then apparently orbited a common center of mass as a binary pair … These two bodies then slowly merged to form Ultima Thule … The [NASA] mission team has been able to put some ‘speed limits’ on that merger … [I]f the two lobes came together at about 22 mph (35 km/h), they likely would not have merged at all … A collision at 11 mph (18 km/h) would lead to a merger, but not one generating an object with two relatively intact lobes like Ultima Thule; there would be considerable distortion … [T]he result of simulations with a 5.5-mph merging speed ‘is strikingly what we actually observe’ …”

However, Electric Universe Theorists have postulated what they consider a much more likely explanation of its formation, as summarized by Wal Thornhill in the following: [3]

“This discovery [of Ultima Thule], based on the double-lobed appearance, fits perfectly with the Electric Universe scenario … [G]ravitational accretion didn’t predict a double-lobed shape for planetesimals, asteroids or comets … [I]t has difficulty in keeping small colliding particles together, without some form of ‘stickiness’ or electrostatic ‘clinginess’ … [T]here’s a problem removing angular momentum from closely orbiting bodies.  It requires a number of smaller objects to be slung out of the system … The most difficult problem for the [gravitational] condensation theory to overcome is how such objects could form in the first place.  The mean distance between small bodies in the vast volume of the Kuiper Belt is so great that collision and accretion has negligible probability … [T]his [formation via gravitational accretion] defies understanding because the model is wrong.  Powerful long-range electromagnetic forces could form all condensed objects in the universe … Only after the electromagnetic forces have subsided, does gravity, the weakest force in the universe, take over …”

The plausibility of the mainstream explanation by gravitational formation, based on data compiled for Ultima Thule (as provided in Reference [1]) since the 2019 flyby, indicates that such formation could have occurred.

With candidate densities from Reference [1] of 0.29 g/cc and 0.5 g/cc, supported by cometary data from Reference [4], it can be shown that the mutual gravitational force on each becomes 6.40 x 10¹⁰ N, for the lower density estimates, and 1.90 x 10¹¹ N, for the higher density estimates.

Next, we estimate the rotational speeds of each lobe about the mutual barycenter as 0.550 m/s for Ultima and 1.03 m/s for Thule.  With these, we can estimate the centrifugal force experienced by each lobe and compare against the mutual gravitational force, as follows: (1) 3.69 x 10¹⁰ N, vs. gravitational force = 6.40 x 10¹⁰ N, using the lower density; (2) 6.36 x 10¹⁰ N, vs. gravitational force = 1.90 x 10¹¹ N, for the higher density.

The results are the same for both Ultima and Thule.  Therefore, for either density case, the mutual gravitational force exceeds the centrifugal force sufficiently to render it plausible that the two lobes will remain attached solely by gravity.

This confirms the mainstream finding that, even at a minimum density of 0.29 g/cc, “both lobes … are bound by self-gravity, with the mutual gravity of the two lobes overcoming centrifugal forces that would otherwise separate the lobes.” [1]  Therefore, gravitational formation for Ultima Thule remains plausible.

However, is it probable?

The key to resolving the probability question is examining the previous mainstream conclusion from Reference [1] that “the result of simulations with a 5.5-mph merging speed ‘is strikingly what we actually observe’ … [as to how Ultima Thule gravitationally merged].”

We do not know the relative speeds among objects in the Kuiper Belt.  However, to somehow guesstimate what these might be, we first note that Kuiper belt objects orbit the sun at an average speed of 1.00 x 10⁴ mph.

As a first step in the “order of magnitude” guesstimate, assume the average relative speed between any two KBOs is the square root of this average speed, or 100 mph.  Let the standard deviation be the geometric mean between this and its next lower order of magnitude, i.e., 31.6 mph.

Let us bias the analysis in the sense that we choose a probability distribution that is skewed in a way to favor lower values without any becoming negative.  One such candidate is the lognormal distribution, [5] which yields a probability of speeds 5.5-mph or less that is vanishingly small, i.e., essentially zero.

Another candidate distribution with similar behavior as the lognormal is the gamma distribution [6], which yields a probability of speeds 5.5-mph or less that is < 1 x 10^-7 %.  If we increase the uncertainty by allowing the standard deviation to equal the mean itself (i.e., a value of 100 mph), the probabilities of speeds 5.5-mph or less rise to the 0.11% for the lognormal and 5.4% for the gamma.  Even in this case, with much greater uncertainty, the likelihood of gravitational formation of Ultima Thule peaks at only 5.4%.

However, perhaps assuming the square root of the average orbital speed as the mean relative speed between a pair of KBOs was not conservative enough.  Let us take another square root, dropping the average speed between a pair of KBOs to 10 mph, with the standard deviation again as the geometric mean between this and the next lower order of magnitude, i.e., 3.16 mph.

Repeating our calculations for the two candidate distributions yields the following results: (1) lognormal < 5.5 mph = 3.7%; (2) gamma < 5.5 mph = 5.4%.  Again, as an extreme case, assume the standard deviation equals the mean.  Now these probabilities rise to 38% for the lognormal and 43% for the gamma.

However, even in this most extreme case with large uncertainty about a very low mean relative speed, the likelihood of gravitational formation for Ultima Thule remains below 50%.

In summary, while our analysis indicates that gravity as the explanation for the formation of Ultima Thule remains plausible, at least an “order of magnitude” examination suggests that it is unlikely, with reasonable but conservative estimates of it being correct around 5% at best.

This lends support to the Electric Universe Theory that an electromagnetic explanation is the more likely.  Again, as stated by Thornhill, “Powerful long-range electromagnetic forces could form all condensed objects in the universe … Only after the electromagnetic forces have subsided, does gravity, the weakest force in the universe, take over …” [3]

This would seem to be an excellent fit for the appearance of Ultima Thule, in that only after its merger due to electromagnetic forces has gravity “taken over” to maintain it as a “contact binary,” with the mutual gravitational force between the two lobes slightly exceeding the centrifugal forces from their mutual rotation about their barycenter that would try to break them apart.

REFERENCES

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/486958_Arrokoth
2. Mike Wall, “Ultima Thule’s Mystery Mound Puzzle Scientists,” April 25, 2019, https://www.space.com/ultima-thule-mystery-mounds-puzzle-scientists.html
3. “Wal Thornhill: Ultima Thule – Another Victory for the Electric Universe | Space News,” January 16, 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9x5_y3IZV_g
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution
6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_distribution

(This is an excerpt. The complete article is available at https://vixra.org/abs/2003.0129 .)

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