UK Govt Play Fast & Loose on COVID Data to Justify More Restrictions
The retired former government scientist I have mentioned before, commented a few days ago about the apparent spike in virus cases and what it means. He expressed the following concerns:
The BBC and others were crowing yesterday about new cases reaching the 4000 mark. As I have said many times before always read the clinical small print.
Setting aside the fact that these are not cases in the clinical sense of a case and are merely positive swab results (i.e. the persons counted may or may not be infectious and they may or may not be sick) there is the critical issue of publication date vs. specimen date counts. Publication date counts arise according to when the DHSC decide to release the latest figures, whereas specimen date counts are determined by the earliest known positive specimen for a particular person. (Emphasis added)
The public, being sensible, are going to think the new ‘case’ figures released by the DHSC will bear some semblance to reality and will be totted according to specimen date but this is not so; the DHSC release a different set of rather surreal figures they call ‘published’ counts.
To reveal this game of musical swabs I have plotted out the actual ‘case’ count according to specimen date (being the real and rather useful clinical McCoy) against the case count according to the DHSC’s published figure confection.
Between 31st August and 5th September, the DHSC under reported actual case counts to the tune of 5698 and did so again between 7th September and 10th September, giving them another 3059 cases in the ‘scare bank system’, making a total of 8757 unreported cases to release when the moment was ripe. (Emphasis added)
That moment came on 13th September when they were able to reveal 3330 new cases instead of the 1972 we’d report using actual specimen dates. They performed the same trick again on 15th September, reporting 3105 cases instead of 1375. The scare bank system enabled them to hit the magic 4000 mark on 16th September (3991 to be precise). (Emphasis added)
We have yet to find out what the real count should have been that day and I shall be waiting quietly in the wings to reveal more of what can only be described as a scam. The same system was used to artificially inflate death counts back when folk were dying. (Emphasis added)
They’re using the same technique of holding back some cases on some days to boost numbers later down the line. There is absolutely no need for this since all the data they need are already there – they could easily report actual case counts a couple of days later if there was a need to satisfy admin procedures (figures signed off etc).
This suggests withholding cases is being done deliberately for some nefarious reason, like to justify another lockdown when none is needed.
He continues:
What the media and authorities are calling a ‘case’ I’m calling a ‘swab’ because that’s what the stark reality is – something that is stuck up somebody’s nose regardless of how they feel and whether they are actually infectious. A case is a detection is a swab; physicians care for cases, governments care for swabs.
Graphwise I’m delighted to report the Positive Swab Rate is down and has stayed down these past few days. This means the surge in new cases is not a new trend, it’s a spike. Spikes are going to occur in any sampling system. When three buses all turn up at once we don’t assume the bus company is laying on more vehicles especially for us, we assume the blighters have all bunched up en route! It’s the same with swabbing the populace over time but I’ve yet to see experts point this out. (Emphasis added)
He further explains:
While we are cogitating like this it’s worth considering that any genuine new wave of infection isn’t going to produce sampling spikes, it’s going to produce a whopping great trend. Herd immunity (for want of a better phrase) will do the same if former hotspots are targeted. (Emphasis added)
There’s also a skeleton in the closet to consider and that is these rates are for pillar 1 & 2 testing combined. The government have yet to release data for pillar 3 & 4 testing five months down the line. A complete void for key data is the sort of thing that makes me rather suspicious. (Emphasis added)
After updating my database this morning, I thought I ought to pay attention to claims that COVID-19 hospital admissions are rising. As we can see from the graph below this is indeed the case.
We should note that what the government call an ‘admission’ on their online coronavirus dashboard webpage is not an admission in the strict sense of somebody being admitted to hospital but includes all those inpatients already in hospital, for one reason or another, who were found to test positive during their stay. This doesn’t mean to say these people are infectious (they may or may not be) and this doesn’t mean to say they are exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms (they may or may not be); all it means is that fragments of the virus –alive or dead – were found within a swab sample sufficient to yield a positive result. A fully recovered case will still test positive long after the infection has gone, and some people will be rather surprised to learn they have tested positive. (Emphasis added)
What we have then, is an indication of something definitely going on but we don’t know what, since the PCR test relied upon gives no indication of disease status. This may be the beginning of a new, infectious wave (and thus something to be most concerned about) and yet it may simply be the result of the PCR test detecting dead virus fragments. The latter should also concern us because it means the government are relying on a test that is not fit for purpose. Are these people sick and diseased with COVID-19 or not? I find it astonishing (and somewhat alarming) that the public are not given such basic information. (Emphasis added)
Of all the results I have turned out to date the most mind-mangling is arguably the rather peculiar result we get if we produce scatterplots of the weekly Test & Trace system data for NHS England for pillar 1 alone (those in clinical care and frontline workers) and pillar 2 alone (the wider community and those self-isolating).
In the pillar 1 plot we see a rapid decline in the number of positive cases as testing increases.
In stark contrast the pillar 2 plot reveals a dramatic increase in the number of positive cases as testing increases. Ouch!
Now here’s the mind-mangling thing… the plot for pillar 1 is indicative of a pandemic in decline whereas the plot for pillar 2 is indicative of a pandemic that is getting into its stride, yet these two situations co-exist at the same time in England!
Either we are experiencing a parallel universe bleeding through the ether, or one of two things must be happening:
1). The pandemic is actually in decline (pillar 1 test results are correct) and pillar 2 testing in the wider community is picking up folk carrying dead virus fragments from an earlier infection and not genuinely infectious cases i.e. we are detecting herd immunity and calling it a ‘new wave’ (n.b. the PCR test cannot distinguish between the live and dead virus). (Emphasis added)
2). The pandemic is actually developing like the government claim (pillar 2 test results are correct) but for some reason death isn’t a problem for the nation anymore, folk aren’t having to go to hospital in the first instance for the same miraculous reason and those already in clinical care are turning out to be misdiagnosed or even faking symptoms.
Which explanation makes more sense to you?
If there really was a deadly disease sweeping the world, we wouldn’t need to be rushing to test everyone to prove it exists. Hospitals and morgues would be full, and millions of people would have died.
About the author: Andy Rowlands is a British Principia Scientific International researcher, writer and editor who co-edited the new climate science book, ‘The Sky Dragon Slayers: Victory Lap‘
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Barry
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Thanks Andy great article, it is a wonder isn’t it that all over we have higher cases but fewer deaths. I think the powers that be don’t know how to justify the lockdown so they can only try to keep this sham going with numbers that seem to actually show nothing but confuse us all.
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Andy Rowlands
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Cheers Barry, I think you’re exactly right, governments have pushed themselves into a corner from which it’s almost impossible to get out of.
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Finn McCool
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Hi Andy.
A couple of nights ago, I tried to make sense of the Scottish government ‘cases’ statistics.
Today (24th Sep) they announced:
“465 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 7.9% of newly tested individuals. ”
That would suggest that they have based this on ~5,890 ‘newly tested individuals’.
They also state:
“15,362 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results.”
The results are not given.
Far be it from me to call this lies, obfuscation and stupidity. Allegedly.
I made the fatal mistake of checking the raw data they supply in an Excel spreadsheet.
Somewhere in Scotland, a village is missing an idiot. Probably the same one who designed this spreadsheet.
Major social policy affecting the general economy and individual rights are being decided on this rubbish.
OJ Simpson escapes conviction because the chain of handling DNA samples was broken.
Does anyone believe that a complete chain exists in the processing of a swab from start to finish exists? Imagine the person who shoves a stick up your nose didn’t change his gloves from the previous test. The result of the test is therefore worthless.
Anyone who “tests” positive should immediately challenge it.
As an afterthought. Why should you willingly give the government a free sample of your DNA complete with all personal details?
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Tom O
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Finn wrote –
“As an afterthought. Why should you willingly give the government a free sample of your DNA complete with all personal details?”
This is precisely what I have been saying from day one. WHAT is the purpose of the swab test? I decided that it was to build a DNA bank. What is the purpose of a DNA bank? To find people that have the perfect blood match if you need it? Sounds like a good idea.
How about to be able to find the perfect DNA match for an organ you need instead? Nothing like keeping perfectly good organs safe and healthy inside a “donor” until they are needed by someone with power and “money.”
Oh you say you don’t really want to donate your heart for that 80 year old rich guy? Who’s to say you have a say in it? Everyone is susceptible to having an accident.
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Ed D.
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“As an afterthought. Why should you willingly give the government a free sample of your DNA complete with all personal details?”
Don’t worry the sample will be contaminated and will give a wrong profile. (er….maybe you should worry) or the chain of custody will break.
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Dev
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Fully agree! excellent article and particularly the correction to the “case” nomenclature – swab !
D Raab said on sky news today, & articulated in a very specific way seemingly to mislead by way of sentance grouping.
“…the false positive rate is very high. Its only 7% of tests that would be successful identifying those who actually have the virus….”
@ 8mins into the interview.
93% false positive.
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Andy Rowlands
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Thanks Dev. Hancock claims the PCR test is 99% accurate, when just about everyone else says it’s 20% accurate at best, and some like this one say much lower.
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Josh
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It’s a shame this guy is unnamed. Anonymous statements like this always raise my suspicions.
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Andy Rowlands
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He wishes to remain anonymous to protect his government pension. We have spoken on the phone several times, and he has given me a link to his credentials at the academia website. I fully understand if people view what I quote as questionable, that is of course their right.
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Alan
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Thanks for the explanation. I was wondering why he was not named. Doesn’t that tell us even more about the dire state of the country we live in?
I visited my GP yesterdays for the first time since the virus appeared and was encouraged and surprise to find that the surgery staff did not agree with the government policies. We get nurses protesting about low wages and lack of investment but why don’t we get them protesting about the health policies that are of no benefit to us and will do even more damage in the longer term? A majority seem to be living in fear of the government, not the virus.
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Andy Rowlands
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I took my Mom to a hospital appointment a few days ago, and three of the four nurses I spoke to agreed with me that this whole thing is beyond stupid.
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tom0mason
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The bottom line is that the vast majority of the world’s population will get this virus! How it will affect any individual is down to how good the immune response is at countering this infection and clearing it from the body. These ‘lockdowns’ just delay the day — useful for overstretch medical facilities but not necessarily useful for the individuals.
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