UK COVID Conundrum: The Mysterious Case of Disappearing Flu
At the end of 2020 many statisticians, doctors and independent scientists noticed something amiss about this extraordinary year. The Office of National Statistics, Public Health England shows that the numbers for death from influenza and those from Covid-19 are askew.
Despite the media and government pandemic presentations, we need to step back and consider the larger picture.
Sometimes it is difficult to see the forest for the trees, but perhaps we have succumbed to seeing a single tree and ignoring the rest of the forest.
Is the fact that one virus has suddenly been given a name, Covid-19, (with wildly hyped media coverage) taken our focus off the overall reality of the annual flu season group of viruses? Has one name and media hype highjacked our lives?
With the 2019–2020 flu season, there have been a number of reports of Covid-19 illnesses in the UK and USA well before the end of 2020. Just today there was a report of Covid-19 illnesses in China as early as August, 2019. [1A]
Until the introduction of the PCR test for Covid-19 in late February, Covid-19 cases and deaths did not exist. This gives the impression that the virus appeared just then, while it was undoubtedly present much earlier as part of the flu season, from numerous anecdotal reports. Various reports indicate symptoms typical of Covid-19 in the U.S. as early as November–December, 2019 and likely even earlier.
With growing attention given to the virus and the increasing availability of PCR testing, we started receiving regular accounts of the number “cases” of the virus. Stepping back a bit and looking at general numbers and ignoring the contentious PCR accuracy regarding positive and negative cases, we see an overall pattern that is very similar to past flu seasons. Cases of flu-like illness generally start in October/November and last until March or April in the UK [1].
The observation can be made that this fairly well describes the 2019–2020 flu season, including Covid-19. The 2019–2020 Covid-19 death numbers appear as a spike because there was no PCR test until about the middle of the flu season, giving the impression that Covid-19 physically appeared late in the season. No, the test appeared late in the season. Despite the testing results, the UK government actually declared the pandemic over in March, but then, oddly, imposed a lockdown a week or two later.
The government declaration of the pandemic’s end can be considered innocently valid and devoid of politics. The advent of lockdowns and more could then be considered political. [So often, when an event occurs, the first observations prove to be the most honest, while the spin and changes come later.]
Much confusion has been generated by different accounting systems regarding illnesses and deaths. There are disparities in the cause of death, whether with the virus or without, and with an over reliance on the PCR test. In addition, many Covid-19 cases were diagnosed solely from symptoms, ignoring the fact that such symptoms are often seen during the flu season.
The observation that some people loose their sense of smell and taste with Covid-19 clearly ignores that these effects occur in every flu season, but now people are told that this is diagnostic for Covid-19. [Dogs are animals and can have spots, but all spotted animals are not dogs.]
We have always taken these symptoms in stride and happily waited until our senses returned. Suddenly, these symptoms are unique and diagnostic of Covid-19. It simply defies reality. If they suddenly reported that you could get a flesh-eating disease from a hang-nail, we would suddenly start considering every incipient hang-nail as a life-threatening event, when, in fact, they are not.
No careful lines have been defined to tell whether deaths have been due to a single virus, multiple viruses, comorbidities (conditions already burdening an individual’s health), or a virus with complications, such as pneumonia. Bacterial pneumonia often has a chance to take hold when one’s lungs are compromised by a flu-type illness. [Note that subsequent pneumonia is not a comorbidity.] Curiously deaths from influenza in the US have recently dropped to about zero; more on this below. [2]
Making our understanding of illness and death in the UK and other regions more difficult are the inclusion of diagnoses determined solely by the PCR test and others solely by symptoms. It is very clear that the traditional symptoms of cold and influenza broadly overlap those of Covid-19, thus making definitive diagnoses very difficult. Add to this the purported rate of false positives from the PCR test (now +97% according to the WHO) [3] and accounting of nonlethal “cases” becomes what they call “problematic.”
To really eliminate the many possible confusions and conditions that can be placed on death rates and possible death causes, it is useful to step back and look at the overall death rate, from all causes, for a country or state. The focus here is on the UK, but the US also provides some guidance. [4]
First, the concept of a pandemic needs to be addressed. A pandemic is the movement of a disease, bacterial or viral, that moves around the world and has a higher than normal damaging effect. Until recently this was described as a higher than normal mortality. The definition has been changed at WHO’s website such that the flu season is now a pandemic despite death rates being within a normal range. [5] (It is also curious that the definition of herd immunity originally included the benefits of natural and vaccinated immunity, but the definition now only includes vaccinated immunity. Very curious.)
Flu season viruses move around the world every year, largely deriving from farms in Southeast Asia where flu-type viruses are exchanged and hybridized between fish, pigs, and chickens and eventually transmitted to farmers, thus starting the next round of viruses for the annual newly-defined “pandemic.” From teaching Environmental Science, I learned that there has been an effort to break this chain of virus evolution by encouraging farmers to specialize in only one major livestock, thus decreasing viral exchanges between these species. This virus hybridization (mixing) is the source of the H#N# marker recombinations that vaccine labs try to detect early for each new flu season and then attempt to offer appropriate vaccines.
The flu season in the tropics is actually all year round and, because of the humidity, virus transmission is low but constant. However, in the more temperate regions, transmission blossoms when Fall arrives and people start spending more time indoors, in a relatively closed environment, and closer to each other.
It is a bit counter intuitive that humidity (which goes with warm temperatures) decreases transmission rates. It is a good deal in the tropics, sunlight on clear days kills viruses and humidity is always on the job. Small water droplets containing virus, from speaking, coughing, sneezing, and even breathing, tend to gain weight under humid conditions and fall to the ground more quickly than under dry conditions.
Flu season in the Southern hemisphere appears to mirror the Northern hemisphere, but flu viruses are likely introduced to the south by air travel during their summer and, thus, possibly starts and dilutes their six-month later flu season over a longer period.
For all of this, it is very difficult to see the forest for the tree (Covid-19, highlighted by the PCR test), but one statistic that sums up and ignores all the various causes of death and various biases in categories is the overall death rate of a country or state [4], such as the UK, which is a well-defined population with good reporting capabilities. [6]
There are some interesting aspects to death rates. Again, from Env. Sci. teaching, when a heat wave hits a city, as happened in Paris a number of years ago, the death rate rises as people succumb to the physiological burden of heat. However, after the heat wave is gone, the death rate tends to dip below normal for a time. This indicates that the heat wave took people who were already very frail and likely to die in the near future, in a couple of weeks or months, the old “one foot in the grave,” which is not an inaccurate description in many cases..
With cold snaps, there is also a spike in the death rate, but after it is over, there is no dip in the death rate, as it goes back to normal. This is because cold does not discriminate and kills all ages. Heat tends to impose a physiological burden on those already heavily burdened, but cold is a much simpler core temperature problem that is a critical problem for all ages.
That said, is there anything we can learn by comparing the death rates from the last year of “the Covid” and previous years? Focusing mainly on the UK as a single, well-defined population and putting aside all reporting bias and possible cause of death confusions, what do the overall death rates tell us?
It has been speculated, not unreasonable, that many more people died from Covid-19 at home, fearful, unwilling, unable to go to hospital, and thus not counted in the Covid death total. However, overall deaths in the UK in the last year would also include those who died at home. Overall deaths effectively eliminates all biased death factors and includes deaths not immediately reported.
The excess total deaths for the UK show a well-defined peak in the 2nd quarter of 2020, from mid-March to mid-May. Looking at the age break-down, it is clear that those over 45 and particularly over 65 were most susceptible to whatever virus or viruses of the flu season were making people ill. The rest of the year showed a low (normal) death rate that was low until Fall, when the new flu season arrived, which showed then a broader peak more similar to a flu season. [1]
It is a realism that every year more people have aged or developed infirmities that make them susceptible to a flu-like illness and/or complications. The fact that there is an annual peak does not indicate unusual illness or mortality; it’s the flu season that we have had for many years.
We need to resist the temptation to think that we are seeing something new in our world. By the same token, with a focus on flu-type infections and the elderly, it is easy to conclude just from the effective hyping of such deaths that many people are dying.
Elderly with complications die from complications all year round, just more in the flu season and this is very usual. It is curious that suddenly the public has been sensitized to the elderly death rate, as if it was a new thing. Suddenly, a virus is singling out the elderly, while, in fact, the elderly are always at risk, while the risk to other age groups varies from season to season.
It is also clear that the overall death rate in 2020 was exceeded by the five years of 1999-2003. [2] I need to define the death rate here, as it is based on the deaths per thousand people, which eliminates the fact that populations were lower in earlier years. It’s a given that larger population might have a higher death total from a given disease, but not a higher death rate. Diseases work on the susceptible individuals of a population and, thus, it is a proportion of the population that becomes ill or dies. [6]
That said, how does the death rate in the UK for 2020 compare to previous years? It is clear that the death rate in the UK for 2020 was not exceptional compared to previous years [4]. How can that be? If you have Covid-19 as well as influenza killing people, what is going on? An observation has been made that, for some mysterious reason, influenza, as of April in the US, dropped to zero and continues at zero in the latest flu season. [6]
In light of the apparent missing influenza, claims have been made that masking, distancing, and lockdowns were completely effective against influenza, but then there is no talk about its failure in stopping Covid-19, which is a virus of the same size and transmission mode.
Then, we are told that Covid is still around because people are not masking and such properly, which means influenza should also still be around in the US. Since these are infectious viruses, how can these restrictions be effective against one virus and not the other? It does not make sense.
It is also easy to find that US states with strict mandates have the same rates of PCR-positive cases as those who do not. The conjecture can be made that influenza cases are largely reported as Covid-19, based either on a positive PCR test result or on symptoms alone.
In the US, it is clear that there has been a monetary incentive for diagnosing the disease and encouraging hospitalizations. The cessation of other medical procedures and tests during this period clearly is going to lead to increased overall deaths. The fact that there appears to be no excess deaths despite this, indicates that the C-19 virus itself was not as lethal as they claim.
Overall, the death rate in the UK is not out of line with the normal death rates from other years and clearly not close to the highest in the last 22 years. [1] It is difficult to consider influenza deaths when there appears to be a bias toward categorizing influenza and other causes as Covid-19 deaths.
Every year and, for that matter, all year long, there is a population of health-critical individuals who may be overwhelmed by a flu-like illness and open to pneumonia complications. The questionable Covid-19 PCR test appears to be keeping the presence of Covid-19 alive, possibly detecting viruses of the current flu season.
The WHO is now admitting that that this test can be 97% false positives or more, with higher processing cycle numbers. [3] The argument could be made that we have an epidemic of testing.
A little exploration of the Office of National Statistics, Public Health England shows that the numbers for death from influenza and those from Covid-19 are askew. [7] They show 4649 cases mentioning influenza and only 380 with influenza only. This means 92% of these cases had other complicating conditions. However, the same week they report 6057 cases mentioning Covid-19 and 5387 mentioned only Covid-19, with 89% being Covid-19 only.
This defies logic. What happened to pneumonia? It is well-known that flu-like illnesses open one up to pneumonia but, according to the above numbers, 89% of deaths from this virus were ONLY from this virus. That does not correlate with the many reports of illnesses with complications and does not at all correlate with the US CDC’s report that only 6% of their Covid-19 related deaths were from Covid-19 only, which means 94% had comorbidities or complications, such as pneumonia.
This is pretty much the exact opposite of UK statistics. [8] However, the CDC is not that far off from the UK’s own death numbers, showing a small fraction of defined Covid-19 deaths, showing 13,844 deaths from Covid and 50,000 with Covid. [9]
One could ask what happened to influenza. There appears to be a strong tendency to list illnesses as Covid-19 to make the situation appear more dire and possibly more profitable. In the US, there is a financial incentive to diagnose Covid-19 and encourage hospitalizations.
A sad fact is that unethical medical personnel can talk people into feeling sicker than they really are, particularly when they are primed by fears of a deadly virus. From multiple points of view, looking at the lack of a proper virus isolation and description, the highly variable Covid-19 symptoms, and the fact that a variety of viruses comprise the flu season, I believe that this undescribed virus is most likely not present anymore, but there is no way to show that it is or not because the only “evidence” is the poorly designed PCR test. It is very hard to prove a negative.
[1A] “More evidence of ‘suspicious activity’ at the Wuhan Institute of Virology emerges”
[https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6225724386001]
[1] Euromomo, Graphs and Maps
[https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/]
[2] “REPORT: Surge in COVID Coincides w/ Suspiciously Mild Flu Season”
[https://headlineusa.com/surge-covid-suspicious-flu-season/]
[3] “COVID-19: A Very Different Truth“
[https://thenaturaldoctor.org/article/covid-19-a-very-different-truth/
[4] “Beware Those Excess COVID-19 Death Analyses”
<https://principia-scientific.com/beware-those-excess-covid-19-death-analyses/>
[5] “WHO exposed: How health body changed pandemic criteria to push agenda”
[6] “Neither US Nor UK Have ANY Excess Deaths From COVID19” [
[https://principia-scientific.com/?s=neither]
[7] Weekly deaths for January 1–8, 2021
[8] “How Many Americans Has Covid-19 Really Killed?”
[https://principia-scientific.com/?s=How+Many+Americans+Has+Covid-19+Really+Killed%3F]
[9] “Breaking: UK Govt’s OWN NUMBERS Expose Their COVID19 Fraud!”
[https://principia-scientific.com/breaking-uk-govts-own-numbers-exposes-their-covid19-fraud/]
About the author: Banson Wilcot PhD holds degrees in Marine Biology and Biochemistry, with a focus on dermatology and lipid biochemistry, and taught university courses for 12 years. Dr. Wilcot has been professionally editing and critiquing foreign-source research papers for publication and grant applications for 16 years (1000+ items). Being a generalist, he has edited papers ranging from coal-fire dynamics, nanotechnology, material science, electrochemistry, all areas of biochemistry and molecular biology, and organic applications as well as oceanography/marine biology and many marine research topics.
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Alan
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This is a good article about interpreting death rates, but I would like to see graphs supporting the claims. The references are for European countries and only for 2020. It is important that we have graphs of UK deaths only and from previous years. I also believe we cannot understand the impact on the death rates until we have several years of additional data. The understanding of cold and hot periods on deaths discussed in this article depends on having data after the event, and the same applies now.
On 15 January 2021 there was an article “Since 1999 Five ‘Flu years’ Saw More Deaths in UK than 2020!” in PSI with a graph of the UK deaths from 1999 to 2020. This showed that the death rate was higher in every year of the period 1999 to 2003 than the death rate for 2020, but there was no panic and no analysis of the higher death rate in the past. Also, of significance is that the death rate fell after 2003 and was low between 2008 and 2019 so now the deaths seem higher, but as stated in the article, there is nothing unusual about the present death rate. There was no celebrating of the low death rate in previous years. That went by completely ignored by the media and the government. They only like scare stories.
We really need the death rate for all the available UK data. I have only seen this for Sweden but cannot find the reference. It showed peaks of deaths in various years which related to serious flu seasons with 1918-19 the most significant year for high deaths. We should see these graphs for UK and every country for comparison but giving us the facts is not what the media or government is willing to do.
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Brian James
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December 29, 2020 Medical Cruelty In Action- doctors Mock Autism After Taking Covid Vax
Hello. No matter what your thoughts on vaccine induced autism or even vaccine choice – surely we can all agree that when doctors mock autism in concert on social media, with the same derisive, dismissive tone – it’s the nadir of medical etiquette.
https://www.ageofautism.com/2020/12/medical-cruelty-in-action-doctors-mock-autism-after-taking-covid-vax.html
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Cathy
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There has been Total of 1063 Extra deaths in Ireland in the second quarter of 2020 as compared to the same quarter in 2019 (Central Statistics Office figures) That equates to 40 extra deaths per county in three months or 13 per month Death rates vary from year to year , being much higher in 2000 than 2020. Not a pandemic But of course the definition of pandemic has been changed by the WHO in the very recent past More a case of dempanic than pandemic Our ‘health’ service has been at breaking point for quite a number of years with non stop news coverage of people on trolleys waiting for a bed in hospitals, including very old and sick people for days The system has been broken a long time with chronic diseases on the rise at an alarming rate No panic over that though ?
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g kaiser
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I have not read the article. However the headline states that there is no excess mortality.
That is not the case, see here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
While I agree that this plandemic is political at heart, there is however also an element of excess mortality. Way overblown, but it is there.
That we have seen this (excess mortality as a result of influenza) many times before in history, and never before seen the politicians ruin the world economy, is the remarkable issue,
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Peter Harris
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Really, I can’t believe this guy claims he has a PhD.
I Googled the author of this junk, and can’t find out anything.
This is just garbage, the whole article is garbage.
The reason why the flu has been greatly diminished, is for the same reasons that have been deployed to reduce Covid.
That is so obvious, even a 12 year old would understand the connection.
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Otto Zeit
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Peter — Your 12 year old would be mistaken about that “correlation = causation” reasoning – as he would likely be about many other scientific matters.
That canard was explicitly raised and debunked in the article (did you actually read it?):
“In light of the apparent missing influenza, claims have been made that masking, distancing, and lockdowns were completely effective against influenza, but then there is no talk about its failure in stopping Covid-19, which is a virus of the same size and transmission mode.”
“Then, we are told that Covid is still around because people are not masking and such properly, which means influenza should also still be around in the US. Since these are infectious viruses, how can these restrictions be effective against one virus and not the other? It does not make sense.”
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Peter Harris
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Otto… Just like this wacky website, you are hilarious…
Perhaps you better remind the fake PhD who wrote this nonsense, that correlation does not equal causation.
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Dr Kaeding
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This doesn’t support the Dr’s claims and he is preaching bad science.
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Otto Zeit
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Noticing you had zero response to the substantive point I made, just laughter, and baseless denigrations of the author’s academic qualifications — rhetorically hollow.
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Peter Harris
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Otto, isn’t that a little hypocritical?
You yourself, made no substantial comment, which I find amusing.
Where is the smoking gun in support of the headline of this article?
Herb Rose
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Hi Peter,
Could the disappearance of the flu be the result of medical facilities being paid thousands of more dollars for COVID cases than for flu cases? Just run more cycles on a PCR test and the flu becomes COVID and your in the money.
Herb
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Otto Zeit
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Bingo! It’s the obvious factor that’s (obviously) not bring factored in.
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Peter Harris
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Could be, but again, where is the smoking gun?
And even if true, that would be an isolated case… no pun intended.
This article is so general, its as if they’re talking about every country.
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John O'Sullivan
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Peter, Obviously in your biased mind this has nothing at all to do with the fact that the government now wrongly combines all flu and COVID data together and thus is engaging in statistically chicanery?
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Peter Harris
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John O’Sullivan… I’ve been doing a bit of reading about you, and perhaps it’s not in your best interest to lecture other people about bias.
”…government now wrongly combines all flu and COVID data together…”
I can’t see that is the case, based on what I read here.
This article is just a Gish Gallop of incoherent prolix.
But I will humour you, and let’s say, that you are correct.
But are you talking about 1, or multiple governments?
There is no evidence of conflating flu and Covid data in Australia.
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Doug Harrison
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Well, peter it’s summer down under and there’s not much flue around is there?
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Peter Harris
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Really Doug?
No, it’s so hot, we don’t have our fireplace working.
Flu… Doug.
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John O'Sullivan
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Peter, What is my bias that you allude to? Can’t you simply speak plainly if you dispute the fact that, at minimum, the UK and US govts both now mix COVID data with flu data?
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Peter Harris
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You accuse me of bias.
How about you answer that?
”…at minimum, the UK and US govts both now mix COVID data with flu data?
Where is the evidence?
Again, even if you are correct, the UK and the US don’t constitute the whole world.
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Sirrah Retep
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You know, you sound a lot like my wife.
Russ McAfee
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And not only did the flu disappear, but pneumonia and pulmonary diseases of all stripes have disappeared as well! ALL HAVE SHRUNK TO ALMOST NOTHING! Like the flu! IT’S A MIRACLE! Was it the mask? NO! Doctors and hospitals have. . . been. . . wrongly. . . classifying these illnesses for decades! The pegged 35 PCR test HAS EXPOSED ALL THESE MEDICAL ANOMALIES AS. . . wait for it. . . COVID. Even gunshot wounds and careless motor cycle riders were found to be carriers. ALL . . . HAD . . . COVID! It was right there staring us in the face all along! So when any of the above show up on a hospital’s door step or—Mother of Mercy! —die, it’s because they. . . all. . . have . . . COVID! Remember that name. COVID. DEAD MEN AND WOMEN WALKING. COVID. Even the government (Medicare) has recognized this mistake and ponied up with a bountiful billing bounty of (roughly/up to/just tossing out some numbers here to play with) $4200 for classifying an incoming patient of any kind as a COVID PATIENT, $39,000 a day for each day a COVID PATIENT IS TREATED IN ICU, and $59,000 a day FOR A COVID PATIENT WHO DIES WHILE ON A VENTILATOR!
Don’t you see?! This deceptive scourge has at long last been discovered! And stamping it out is within humanity’s grasp if everyone will just take the xxxx vaccine and be cured!
A good and timely article. Dead on.
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