Two Separate Studies Confirm No Link Between CO2 And Temps
German climatologist Professor Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke recently took data from two independent studies and superimposed them. The result shows the long-claimed atmospheric CO2-global temperature correlation doesn’t exist.
The first data set was global temperature anomaly going back 600 million years, taken from the results of a paper by Came and Veizer, appearing in Nature (2007) and plotted below (blue):
The second data set was of atmospheric CO2 going back 600 million years, taken from a published study by Berner (2003), also appearing in Nature. These data are plotted in the above chart in blue.
No correlation
The plots were combined in the above chart to see how well they correlated, if at all. The result: no correlation.
For example, as the chart shows, 150 million years ago the atmospheric CO2 concentration was over 2,000 ppm, which is five times today’s atmospheric concentration of 410 ppm – a level that some climate scientists say is already “dangerously high.”
Yet, the global temperature 150 million years ago was more than 2°C below the long-term mean.
450 million years ago the relationship was even far more on its head: atmospheric CO2 concentrations were more than 10 times today’s level, yet the global temperature was a frigid 3.5°C below the mean!
“There’s no correlation between earth temperature and CO2,” Prof. Lüdecke concludes, observing recorded data.
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Jan Sevenhans
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The link is double : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/below-5c-ocean-absorbes-co2-above-25c-between-sevenhans/
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Brian James
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July 28, 2020 2020: Norway’s Coldest Summer In 60 Years – Grand Solar Minimum Hits
It’s also been raining a lot, continues the article, and even snowing in the mountains–all while the Arctic islands of Svalbard set records for heat.
https://principia-scientific.com/2020-norways-coldest-summer-in-60-years-grand-solar-minimum-hits/
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Koen Vogel
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The lack of a robust correlation between CO2 levels and global temperature is the main reason the IPCC have had to adopt the competing null hypothesis method of Optimal Fingerprint Analysis (https://principia-scientific.com/a-wrongful-conviction-in-the-climate-change-case/): the evidence does not support rejecting the CO2 Null Hypothesis: “there is no relationship between recent atmospheric CO2 increases and global temperature increases). The correlation is not statistically significant.
Two comments though:
1) the Lüdecke analysis looks at absolute atmospheric CO2 levels and temperatures over the last 600 mln years, while the IPCC analysis focuses on recent anomaly trends. The recent anomaly trends are easier to correlate (e.g. increasing CO2 with increasing GMST since 1980). The 600 mln year record demonstrates that very little correlation exists between absolute values, i.e. the 600 mln year anomaly trends show little correlation, which indicates the recent correlation in trends is likely spurious/coincidental.
2) caution should be used when comparing conclusions drawn from high-quality, detailed, yearly, globally-averaged data to fairly uncertain, quasi-global estimates derived from the geological record. The distinction needs to be made lest anthropogenic climate change supporters make it for you, and minimize the importance of your conclusions. It would be nice to see the analysis redone with 95% confidence bands. This enhances the robustness of the conclusions.
You don’t need to go back 600 mln years to see the correlation bust: Dr Lüdecke shows a slide (pg 8 of his PDF) indicating that the good correlation between the recent trends only started around 1975; before then the trends show very little correlation, e.g. the 1900-1940 period of warming.
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Joel Walbert
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No study needed. At approximately .04% of all atmospheric gases, it cannot under any circumstance, have any effect on temperature. Levels that low most certainly are starving plants though.
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