‘Triple La Nina’s’ Show Why All Climate Models Are Flawed
Three consecutive years of La Nina conditions, referred to as “triple-dip La Nina”, began in 2020. This was immediately followed by the emergence of a strong El Nino in 2023
As such, all current global climate models failed to predict when La Ninas and El Ninos will form, including their intensity and longevity.
Why have all these climate models failed?
It is because they haven’t taken into account the significant effect that emissions from ocean-floor geological features have on the dynamics of La Ninas and El Ninos.
You may be amazed to know that scientists who have massive amounts of atmospheric and oceanic surface data at their disposal still don’t know what generates La Ninas or El Ninos. It seems obvious that this contention is incorrect.
Figure 1. Map of September 27, 2020, La Nina (Map credit NOAA, some Labeling by J. Kamis)
After all, highly respected scientists from varying disciplines have told us for decades that every aspect of La Ninas and El Ninos is well understood. The occurrence of triple La Ninas followed by a strong El Nino has proven that very few of the La Nina and El Nino aspects are well known.
Here is what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had to say on November 7, 2023, about the authenticity of their climate models concerning La Ninas and El Ninos:
“With the current El Nino in full force, researchers are still puzzling over the 2020–2023 La Nina that upended current understanding of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The three consecutive years of La Nina conditions – a rare “triple-dip” phenomenon – had widespread impacts on the ocean and climate across the globe.
While triple-dip La Ninas have happened before, this one was notable in that it did not conform to conventional theories on how these extended La Ninas developed, leaving scientists searching for clues to explain what caused it (NOAA 11-7-2023).
Geological Process That Generates La Ninas and El Ninos
1) Before the El Nino warm phase becomes recognizable, a deep inner earth molten lava chamber that is positioned below the Source Point becomes active. This activity superheats the lava and water molecules encapsulated within the molten lavas.
The super-heated water molecules immediately begin expanding thereby generating extremely high pressures within the lava chamber. This high-pressure lava then forces its way upward due to its higher pressure than overlying rock layers.
As it pushes upward it creates new fractures and opens existing fault planes in the overlying rock layers. This allows the lava to eventually spill out onto the ocean floor.
2) At this point the heat from the lava begins to warm ocean waters in the Source Point area however, the heated fluid does not significantly or immediately warm the overlying ocean.
This is because the input of heated fluid also acts to melt vertical and laterally oriented adjacent massive deposits of ice-bearing rock layers called Clathrates. The melting of the clathrates ice generates huge amounts of cold water that mixes with the heat emitted from the hot lava resulting in a flow of near normal temperature of the ocean water.
3) As the expulsion of heat from the hot lava continues at the same rate and temperature, the region’s icy clathrate deposits are eventually greatly diminished. If the lateral and vertical extent of the clathrates is greater than previously estimated, then it will take a longer time to melt them.
The result is that a La Nina could last for many years which explains the recent occurrence of the Triple La Nina.
4) When the cold-water input from the clathrates becomes minimal and the heat emissions begin to significantly warm the area’s ocean water, thereby initiating the recognizable formation of an El Nino warm phase.
When the activity of the Upper Mantle Convection Cell diminishes its flow rate, pressure, and temperature also diminish.
5) At some point, the deceased parameters reach a tipping point that is conducive to reestablishing the icy clathrates. As the ice reforms within the rock layers and along the open fault planes it begins to greatly cool the overlying ocean water.
This marks the beginning of a La Nina cold phase. Once the clathrates deposits fill their original locations the El Nino/La Nina event ends.
Evidence that Geological Forces Generate La Ninas and El Ninos
1) The amount of energy needed to generate the 2020 to 2023 La Nina/El Nino event is astronomical. This amount of energy can only come from extreme pulses of energy released by ocean floor geological features, especially knowing that the temperature increase of our atmosphere and ocean from 2020 to 2023 was 0.06 degrees Fahrenheit and 0.06 degrees Fahrenheit respectively.
2) All El Ninos and La Ninas have originated at the same deep ocean seafloor geographically limited area here termed the “Source Point” (Figure 2.) It is located east of Papua New Guinea and extends into the Solomon Island area.
The Source Point area covers 86,100 square miles which is a mere 1.4 percent of the Pacific Ocean’s 64,092,958 square miles. It is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire. This ring is extremely active and has generated and maintained an estimated 200,000 geological features, most of which emit massive amounts of CO2, natural gas, and numerous types of minerals.
The Ring is 25,000 miles of interconnected major ocean floor fault systems covering 50 million square miles of our ocean floors. It is home to 452 active or semi-active volcanoes, an amazing 75 percent of the world’s total.
It accounts for 90 percent of the earth’s earthquakes and 81% of the most powerful earthquakes. All but three of the world’s 25 largest volcanic eruptions of the last 11,700 years occurred along the Ring of Fire.
Although the Source Point area is small it emits enough heat, fluids, and gas to generate La Ninas and El Ninos.
Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map of El Nino and La Nina events that shows the similarity of their extent, Source Point location, and two-dimensional temperature profile here shown as surface temperature anomaly form normal (credit NASA).
3) La Nina and El Nino events are typically associated with elevated earthquake activity and or volcanism in the point source area (Guillas 5-28-2010). Several studies concluded that approximately six months after a series of strong earthquakes and or large volcanic eruptions occur in the greater Source Point region an El Nino forms.
This is exactly what has happened in the last six months.
4) Helium Plumes such as the one shown in (Figure 3) are proven to be formed by emissions from ocean floor volcanoes and hydrothermal vents (Jin-Oh-Park June 14, 2021, Baker 1989, and Lupton 1999).
The Figure 3 image shows the ocean surface helium plume has the same exact source point, cone shape, and terminates at the location as La Ninas and El Ninos. This is absolute proof that all El Ninos are generated by pulses of ocean floor geological forces.
It is also strong proof that La Ninas are generated by ocean floor geological forces.
Figure 3. Helium Gas is emitted from the same Source Point as La Nina (Image Credit and some Labelling by J. Kamis).
5) The ocean surface outline of all La Ninas and El Nino forms a cone shape (Figure 2) and originates at a fixed/non-moving source point. Ash emitted by an erupting volcano also forms a cone shape and originates at a fixed/non-moving source point (Figure 4).
This indicates that La Ninas and El Ninos are the result of ocean-floor geological activity.
Figure 4. This photo taken from a NASA satellite illustrates the cone shape of ash being emitted by a volcanic eruption (credit NASA).
6) El Ninos do not occur in a predictable historical pattern, rather they occur randomly. This is indicative of a geological origin such as volcanic eruptions which are not predictable.
7) La Nina or El Nino-like events do not occur elsewhere in Earth’s oceans.
8) Historical records indicate that the first human-recorded El Nino occurred in 1525 observed by Spanish explorers. Other studies suggest strong ancient El Ninos ended Peruvian civilizations. The main point here is that strong El Ninos are natural, and not increasing in relationship to global warming as theorized by present-day expert scientists.
9) Scientists attempting to decipher what force or forces generate La Ninas and El Ninos have relied heavily on the vast amount of atmospheric and oceanic data to formulate their conclusions.
Utilizing this data scientists found correlations between trade winds, ocean currents, and changes in marine animal behaviors in both La Ninas and El Ninos. However, these correlations are side effects of geologically generated La Ninas and El Ninos.
10). El Ninos develop in distinctive bursts of heat easily seen on time-lapse videos of Shallow Sea Surface temperature data (Universe 8-9-2015 and Kamis 7-2016). Massive bursts of heat are indicative of volcanic eruptive pulses and not atmospheric temperature increases that build in a much more even fashion.
A time-lapse visualization of the generation of El Ninos by chemically charged heated fluids and heat flow being emitted from deep ocean rock layers associated with the circulation system can be seen by watching the following (Eos 2017).
Pay special attention to the portion of the video animation that speaks to “temperature variations” from normal. You will hear the narrator say that El Ninos are sourced from a deep-ocean area.
The video shows that heat bursts of heated water during an El Nino and bursts of cooled water emanate from the ocean floor Source Point. These bursts don’t dissipate during their eastward journey to Central America, indicating that they are of great magnitude, which is like multiple, strong eruptions from a volcano.
Toward the end of the temperature variation segment of the video, you can also see the rapid formation of the associated La Nina cold-fluid emissions.
Figure 5. Development of El Nino warm phase and La Nina cool phase video (video screencap via Eos 2017 and NOAA’s NCI Division, some labeling by J. Kamis)
Summary
The recent triple-dip La Nina and El Nino event is yet another piece of evidence that confirms the basic tenets of the climate change theory are correct. Also, the triple La Nina/El Nino phenomenon will have far-reaching effects on all climate models.
Such as whether other types of forces have been properly included in the development of climate models, whether we should take more time to analyze current models before making important environmental policies and laws, and whether we should continue to evaluate the validity of climate intervention projects.
In the last six months, three research studies have concluded that geological forces play a far greater role in affecting climate than given credit. A University of Cambridge study concluded that all current climate models need to be updated to take into account the underestimated effect volcanic activity has on climate.
The University of Oxford concluded that a common type of land rock layers which are partially eroded emit very large amounts of CO2 into the earth’s atmosphere.
A study by the University of Vermont concluded that Greenland was ice-free 416,000 years ago. At that time the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 280 ppm. Today’s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is 420 PPM, and Greenland’s center glacier is covered by 5,000 feet of ice.
This sets up a dichotomy. Why is Greenland currently not ice-free when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is 420 ppm? Answer a known molten lava chamber beneath Greenland became active 416,000 years ago and pulsed large amounts of ice melting heat.
Hopefully, this article will provide the scientific community with one more piece of evidence that our climate models need to be significantly altered to properly represent the role of geological forces in climate and climate events.
See more here climatechangedispatch
Header image: European Geosciences Union
About The Author: James Edward Kamis is a retired Geologist, who has a Bachelor of Science degree in Geology from Northern Illinois University (1973) and a Master of Science degree in Geology from Idaho State University (1976). More than 46 years of research have convinced him that geological forces significantly influence, or in some cases completely control climate and climate-related events as per his Plate Climatology Theory.
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Tom Anderson
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“La Niña’s´” — no apostrophe before “s” in plural form — simply, “La Niñas”. Should be “La Niñas’,” (apostrophe following the “s”) for possession by a plural.
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MattH
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I have reservations that warm surface water from New Guinea surrounds is subducted (lead away) to a deeper water column and carried East to the Peruvian -Ecuadorian border.
Heat don’t sink, it be more buoyant Capt’n.
On the other hand the hypothetical subsurface warm water could be carried East by the Cromwell current.
Also in support is the fact that El Nino and La Nina events have never been observed simultaneously, suggesting it could be a switch of the same or similar events (mechanisms).
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Carbon Bigfoot
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Oh MattH and Sunsettommy of little information representative of your comments—download and read the complete 62 page theory manuscript on the right side of this website:
https://www.plateclimatology.com/
Then you offer comments if you actually understand the theory.
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sunsettommy
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It appears you don’t know either and my question was reasonable not going to read a 62-page presentation as I don’t have the time as I Administrate this blog, Moderate a large busy science blog, Administrator of a forum and Moderator of another forum.
By the way already seen your website which is nicely set up and worth exploring have posted from it last year too.
Cheers.
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MattH
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Hi Carbon, and readers.
I am happy to have a read over the weekend, however;
I watched the forming of this current El Nino before anybody said we have an El Nino occurring. Basically the current El Nino appears to be dissipating already and has become what the Japanese and Sunsettommy call a Modoki El Nino, a not quite fully developed El Nino.
If you check out the referenced 90 day SSTA animation you will notice an anomalous warm water source off the East coast of Japan at the end of the animation run. This is the point where four tectonic plates meet, merge.
That particular sea surface temperature anomaly is identical to what appeared to be warm water upwellings right near the coast of the Peru, Ecuador border beginning in February ,March this year. This upwelling ceased a couple of months back and a lot of the anomalous warm water presently developing at the Galapagos Islands appears to be warm water on the Eastern Pacific gyre recycled and heated by the sun. The are of course the hot water vents around the Galapagos Islands that will be contributing to the anomalous warm water developing at these islands to an unfathomable extent. (double entendre intended)
The thing with a hypothesis is it needs to fit with what we observe. I have spent hours observing this animation all this year.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
And I repeat. What appears to be warm water upwelling off the coast of Japan is identical to what appeared off the coast of Peru earlier in the year. It is all gone now.
Have a great day all.
I have not seen anybody other than myself mention we have switched into a negative phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a phenomenon only identified since 1996.
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MattH
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Oh Carbon. I hope you find the animation a little information representative of my comments.
Me thinks if James Edward Kamis was to study the 90 day SSTA animation on a weekly basis over a period of years his hypothesis would evolve and fine tune to some extent.
I have absolute respect for the work of Mr Kamis.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Carbon,
Consider this quote of Albert Einstein, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don”t understand it well enough.” 62 pages cannot be simple!
Have a good day
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Carbon Bigfoot
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As usual Jerry you open your pie-hole about the 62 page presentation that you didn’t read. What is offered is EVIDENCE not cute quotes from theory stealer Uncle Albert.
Theory developed over decades and references 100s if not a 1000 papers. Your IQ isn’t high enough to appreciate the brilliance of Kamis and the seminal work.
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sunsettommy
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What about MODOKI events that doesn’t have that start point at all.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Carbon and those reading this
In the beginning “Dialogues Concerning Two New Sciences” (1638) was published in the common language of that time. Then, because of fires, English translations of the Italian were basically lost for a period of about 200 yearned. Finally an English translation by Henry Crew and Alfonso dr Salvio was published in 1914. I ask Carbon and anyone else, Have you ever read either translation. I had not until about 1990. because none my physical science professors ever suggested I should.
I write this comment so no reader of this comment can ever say that no one ever suggested they should. I suggest everyone should because many common inventions are the result of this ‘thing’ we term SCIENCE.
Have a good day
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Carbon Bigfoot
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As usual Jerry you change the subject to some innocuous piece of work that has no bearing on Kamis’ work.
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Jerry Krause
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I know I only entered the previous comment once so I claim it must the result of AI.
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