The Winter Of 2013-2014 In The Southeast U.S.!
At the moment, it looks like an El Nino will make a comeback by the time winter starts. We are in the neutral zone at the moment, but moving in the direction of a weak El Nino for most of this upcoming winter.
If that turns out to be true as we expect, the winter of 2013-2014 in the Southeast U.S. will prove to be much worse than last winter in terms of snow and cold. The southeast received almost no snow last winter with one or two below-normal temperature days at best. This winter I’m sure will prove to be much different.
In addition to the weak El Nino, we expect to see a much more negative NAO. This will provide many opportunities for snow as low pressure will tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico along several stalled Arctic fronts that move down from Canada over the course of the Southeast Winter. That will produce a much more winter weather-type pattern than we haven’t seen in many years. A negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will open the door for Arctic Cold air to areas east of the Mississippi. As this cold heavy Arctic air moves down into the southeast and the weak El Nino provides Gulf storms that will move up the east coast, we will have a near perfect set-up this winter for more snow in the southeast than seen in many years. Perhaps you would have to go back in time to the 60′s and 70′s to see this type pattern.
Another feature that will help all the snow lovers out is a big high pressure way up high in the North Atlantic. We expect this high will be around for most of the winter months. That will serve as a block which will cause the polar jet stream to bend way down into the Southeast. Places such as the following: Northern Mississippi; Northern Alabama; eastern half of Tennessee, all of Northern Georgia, western half of the Carolina’s, and Virginia and West Virginia will get hit very hard with several snowstorms throughout the winter of 2013-2014. Also, we are very concerned about major ice storms hitting places like Atlanta, Georgia; Augusta, Georgia, and over the midlands of South Carolina, and southeastern North Carolina to perhaps Wilmington, North Carolina. There may be one or two severe ice storms that could have a major impact on those locations. Depending on storm tracks, these severe ice storms could reach as far north as Anderson, South Carolina. Greenwood, South Carolina, Greenwood, South Carolina, over to Colombia, South Carolina on to the coast of central North Carolina. This may turn out to be a real problem this winter in the Southeast. We are thinking a lot of cold air will be in place with most of these storms.
So places like Greenville/Spartanburg, South Carolina over to the Charlotte, North Carolina metro area will have all snow with most of the winter storms that hit this winter. So we expect this winter in the Southeast will see some record cold in January, February, and even early march. We also expect this winter to see Arctic cold locked place and stay put for weeks on end. However, we expect most of this will start in early January as December will turn out to have near normal temperatures with no snow as our thinking stands right now. Winter may be slow to get started, but once it does, look out for severe Arctic air with snow, sleet, and ice storms to prove common this winter. Even though November and December may be near normal, we expect the rest of the winter of 2013-2014 will be so cold that the overall winter will prove to be 4 to 6 degrees below normal with much above normal snow, sleet, and freezing rain in the southeast U.S. And remember, this forecast is for the Southeast U.S. only. The rest of the country will be covered in our normal Winter Outlook by our CEO, Matthew Holliday. And also, this winter forecast for the winter of 2013-2014 in the Southeast is mine and mine alone. So, when Matthew puts out the overall forecast for the entire country, he may have a different view as we have not compared notes. But, as always, I’m sure he will do his research well and come to my way of thinking.
Thanks for reading!
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