Four and a half billion years ago, two ancient planets collided and merged into one to become the Earth. During the colossal meeting of these two planets – proto-Earth and Theia – a small rocky mass spun off to become our moon. This, our closest companion in the vastness of space, is intrinsically linked to our very existence, with lunar rhythms embedded in the cycles of life on Earth.
The effects of the Moon’s actions upon Earth are still not fully understood. The challenge is to disentangle what is myth and when our lunar companion really does have an influence.
Wobbly orbit
The most obvious effect the Moon has on the Earth can be seen in the ocean tides. As the Earth rotates each day, the Moon’s gravity pulls the water on the nearest side of Earth towards it, creating a bulge. The sea bulges on the opposite side too due to centrifugal force caused by the Earth’s rotation. The Earth rotates beneath these watery bulges, resulting in the two high tides and two low tides we see each day.
Every 18.6 years the Moon’s orbit “wobbles” between a maximum and minimum of plus or minus 5 degrees relative to the Earth’s equator. This cycle, first documented in 1728, is called the lunar nodal cycle. When the lunar plane tilts away from the equatorial plane, the tides on Earth grow smaller. When the Moon’s orbit is more in line with the Earth’s equator, the tides are exaggerated.
Now, Nasa says that rising sea levels due to climate change, combined with the influence of the lunar nodal cycle will cause a dramatic increase in the number of high–tide floods during the 2030s.
Benjamin Hamlington, a research scientist and lead of Nasa’s sea level change science team, is interested in how sea levels respond to both natural and human actions, and what that will mean for coastal populations. Before moving to California, Hamlington lived in coastal Virginia where flooding was already a big problem.
“High-tide flooding affects life very broadly in coastal communities. It impacts your ability to get to your job, makes it difficult for businesses to stay open,” he says. “Now it’s an inconvenience – but it’s going to become hard to ignore, hard to live with.“
These floods, exacerbated by the Moon, are set to damage infrastructure and change coastlines, Hamlington says. “We may see four times the amount of flooding one decade to the next. The lunar nodal cycle affects all locations on Earth and sea levels are going up everywhere. So we’ll see these rapid increases in high-tide floods across the globe.“
The lunar nodal cycle might be set to raise many challenges for humans, but for wildlife in coastal ecosystems it could be an existential threat.
Ilia Rochlin, visiting professor at Rutgers University studies the link between the lunar nodal cycle and salt marsh mosquito populations.
“When the nodal cycle is at its peak, the high tides flood mosquito habitat further landward,” Rochlin says. The tidal flooding occurs more often at this time, and brings with it killifish – a group of a few hundred species of minnow-like fish found in salt, brackish and fresh waters. These predators will eliminate or reduce mosquito populations that are in the egg, larva or pupa stages of development, before the insects are able to fly out of the water where they are born.
“Typically, there are fewer mosquitoes at the peak of the cycle,” says Rochlin. “At the trough of the nodal cycle, the tides may flood mosquito habitat very infrequently, giving them enough time to emerge thus increasing their populations.“
And it’s not just mosquitos that are affected – their abundance is a proxy for the welfare of numerous other species. Salt marshes lack large mammalian herbivores, but in their place are invertebrates such as shrimp, crabs, snails, grasshoppers and other insects. These in turn are a major food source for shorebirds and fish.
“Peak lunar nodal cycle when combined with increased sea level rise creates the real possibility of drowning salt marshes,” says Rochlin.
And when the invertebrates of a salt marsh are drowned, the shorebird, fish and other species that depend on them suffer profoundly too. That includes people, as salt marshes are integral to the global economy, serving as nursery for a plethora of marine life that includes more than 75 percent of all fishery species.
Salt marshes are also of significant environmental importance, able to store carbon at much greater rates than many land-based ecosystems. Freshwater wetlands, meanwhile, hold nearly 10 times more carbon than tidal saltwater sites, in part because of their very large extent. With increased flooding due to the Moon wobble and sea level rise, freshwater wetlands may also face a profound change.
Kristine Hopfensperger is an environmental scientist at Northern Kentucky University who studies the salinisation of freshwater wetlands. “Freshwater coastal wetlands experience great tidal fluctuations throughout a day, and are much more biodiverse than their salt marsh counterparts,” she says.
“Many species are specialists so, as soon as the plants or first level of the food web begin to change composition from a diverse community of freshwater plant species to a less diverse community of salt-tolerating plants, the animals that rely on these plants may begin to change – the birds, terrestrial insects and so on.
Freshwater aquatic species are also greatly impacted by increasing salinity and pushed upstream to remain in freshwater. Salinisation of freshwater coastal wetlands will continue to increase with rising sea levels – and the more frequent flooding is, the more the wetlands will be impacted by the salinity.“
A world without tides would have very different weather systems. Tides are one factor that influences the movement of ocean currents, which move warm or cool water about the Earth. Warm ocean currents bring warmer wetter weather, while cold ocean currents bring colder drier weather.
One of the most important weather-producing phenomena on Earth may be affected by the lunar nodal cycle too. Usually, strong winds along the equator blow the warm surface water westward from South America towards Indonesia and cooler deep water rises up in its place.
During an El Niño event, these trade winds are weakened or even reversed, affecting weather all over the world. Warm surface water piles up near the west coast of South America and cold water remains deep in the ocean. Usually wet regions may be plunged into drought while dry regions may be deluged in rain, even causing deserts to burst into bloom.
A La Niña event, on the other hand, has the opposite effect of El Niño. Trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Cold waters that well up off the coast of the Americas then push the jet stream northward. The result is warmer than usual winter temperatures in the south and cooler than normal in the north.
Together, the El Niño and La Niña phenomena are part of a cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso). (The “Southern Oscillation” part refers to the change in air pressure at sea level over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.)
Scientists from Ohio State University have suggested the switch between El Niño and La Niña may be influenced by a subsurface ocean wave driven by lunar tidal gravitational force. Researchers at the University of Tokyo report that Enso may be predicted by looking at the Moon’s 18.6-year nodal cycle.
“There certainly is a known lunar nodal effect on sea surface temperatures,” says Phil Woodworth, a sea-level scientist and emeritus fellow of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre. The Moon’s gravitational pull influences tidal currents and so the movement and mixing of the upper layers of the ocean water, says Woodworth. “This especially applies to the North Pacific.“
Ice, land and air
While the lunar nodal cycle is set to bring marked change over the coming decades, on a shorter timescale the Moon affects the Earth in a few other lesser-known ways.
The Moon is also thought to affect polar temperatures and contribute to fluctuations in the extent of Arctic ice. Though here, the influence of the Moon is not its 18.6-year nodal cycle, but its more familiar monthly variation in the amount of light reflected from it as it waxes and wanes. Satellite measurements have shown that the poles are 0.55C warmer during a full Moon.
In addition, tidal forces act to break up ice sheets and change ocean heat flows, altering the amount of ice in the Arctic Ocean.
The Moon generates tidal currents and waves both at the surface and deeper in the ocean, says Chris Wilson, expert in marine physics and ocean climate at the National Oceanography Centre. “These currents and waves may either melt or break up sea ice, due to either the transport and mixing of warmer waters or due to straining motions acting to tear apart the ice into smaller pieces, which are then more susceptible to melting.“
The water and ice of the ocean are not the only parts of the planet to experience tides. The Moon also has a tidal effect on both solid land and on the atmosphere.
Earth tides are similar to ocean tides. The land deforms and bulges just as the sea does and is thought to trigger volcanic activity and earthquakes.
Atmospheric tides cause energy flows from the upper to lower atmosphere and changes in atmospheric pressure. Air pressure changes linked to the position of the Moon were first detected in 1847. The Moon’s gravitational forces cause bulges and oscillations in the Earth’s atmosphere, similar to those seen in water.
“Changes in atmospheric pressure are linked with higher air temperatures, which in turn means that the air molecules can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour, lowering the humidity and therefore the chance of rainfall,” says Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society. As a result, lower pressure is known to result in cold wet weather, and higher pressure in calmer, more pleasant weather.
But the Moon’s influence on precipitation via atmospheric tides is small, as other factors like heat from the Sun have a much greater effect. Researchers at the University of Washington reported that lunar forces do affect the amount of rainfall – but only by around 1 percent.
John Wallace, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, says: “At times when the Sun and Moon are pulling together, it rains a tiny bit more than it does six hours earlier or later. So, the Moon’s pull doesn’t affect how much it rains, only when it rains.“
The Moon’s influence, sometimes subtle and sometimes profound, has had a formative impact on life on Earth. Some scientists argue that it is the Moon that made life possible in the first place. The Moon steadies the Earth as it spins on its axis, helping to give us a stable climate. Without it, the Earth would wobble more erratically. The poles would move markedly in relation to the Earth’s orbit. Seasons, days and nights would all look very different.
But the tides that may have kick started life on Earth are also pushing our moon away from us. Every year, the Moon moves further from the Earth by almost 4cm because of the tides it causes on Earth. The Earth rotates more quickly than the Moon orbits, so the gravitational tug of the tidal bulge pulls the Moon along faster. As the Moon accelerates it is flung a little outwards and its orbit becomes bigger. It’s a bit like when you stand on a playground roundabout – the faster it spins, the more you feel as though you are being thrown outwards from the centre.
The Moon is our closest ally in the vastness of the Universe, without which the Earth would be a very lonely place.
See more here: bbc.com
Header image: Royal Museums Greenwich
PSI editors’s note: Is this a tacit admission by NASA and the BBC that changes to our climate are mostly from natural causes?
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Sol
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According to Bock Saga, oldest mythology on the planet, dating the origin of civilization to around three hundred fifty million, and ten thousand years go, the moon is female.
She effects also the menstruation cycles of all females, “including animals” .
Also, its cycle and powers, wore once celebrated and respected by everyone.
And through the knowledge of its cycle, Civilization grew looking up to the moon and the stars for knowledge, guidance and to learn about its future.
But I guess, all the celebrations ended with the coming of television and chems.
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Howdy
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If I may Sol, the Moon has no relation to gender. It has “polarity”. In this instance, feminine.
Yes, I believe the menstrual cycle effect to be true.
Since the Moon exerts a pull on the Earth, particularly visible as the tides, perhaps It is possible all life that is made up with a high magnitude of water, is affected, including animals, and men.
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Sol
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Yes, actually according to Bock saga the moon “when is full” is lifting the soul of all creatures, and the same explains that the soul is liquid.
It is called mahala, the same name is given to the sap of plants, so I assume, also plants must be effected by its cycles.
To be more correct though, always according to the Bock saga, the moon is the symbol representing Ceppo, and Maya, first born boy and girl of the Bock “the all father figure, and they both represent the offering system.
Both Ceppo and Maya, served as the king and queen but did not made children.
The children making was left to the twelfth son which’s symbol is the sun.
But any how yes we can say that because of its attractive power, we can call it female, while the sunn which is irradiating, male.
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Howdy
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OK Sol, I see we both are meaning same thing. I respect your words. 🙂
“The children making was left to the twelfth son which’s symbol is the sun”
The number twelve is very important number. It appears in many sacred texts and traditions. It has deep significance.
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Sol
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Indeed. 12 is also the counting system in the nordic languages.
Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers and MattH,
I try not to be critical of what others write as I try to inform about the history of SCIENCE I claim to have learned. However one of my objections to convince each of you PSI readers to critically evaluate what you read. Because in the HISTORY OF SCIENCE there have existed two ideas; One which has been observed to be ABSOLUTELY WRONG leaving the other maybe correct!!!
This article is so BAD that this comment would need to be too long to cover all the wrong ideas as Katherine Latham, a successful Freelance Journalist wrote, by journalist standards, an easily read, maybe interesting to many readers, article.
This is addressED to MattH because he has recently addressed the topic of the “lunar nodal cycle’s”.possible influence upon the Earth’s Weather and Climate.
Katherine wrote: “Every 18.6 years the Moon’s orbit “wobbles” between a maximum and minimum of plus or minus 5 degrees relative to the Earth’s equator.” From this description of the LUNAR NODAL CYCLE I challenge anyone to describe what the LUNAR NODAL CYCLE is actually observed TO BE. FORGET WHAT ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCE MIGHT BE.
Now Galileo was a TEACHER, Newton was a TEACHER, and I was and still am trying to be a TEACHER. And on more than one occasion, I explained to my students that my most important function was to evaluate that which it was expected that each had demonstrated each had learned. For what, or how well, they had learned MIGHT have an influence upon their future possible EMPLOYMENT.
From my reading I know that the LUNAR NODAL CYCLE receives little attention in astronomy introductory TEXTBOOKS. Hence, it seems likely that these astronomy students are not aware that the MOON RISES and SETS across the Eastern and Western Horizon’s during its LUNAR PHASE CYCLE just as most of us have seen the SUN RISE and SET across the Eastern and Western Horizon during a YEAR.
So I have little doubt that the shepherds watching their flocks during the night near STONEHENGE, saw how extreme locations of the most NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD risings and settings of the MOON over the eastern and western horizons did not always match those of the SUN. They saw that two times during the 18.6 year LUNAR NODAL CYCLE the moon’s risings and settings did match those of the sun during the sun’s two yearly equinoxes during the sun’s yearly cycle.
Hopefully, I have done a GOOD JOB in providing this observed information.
Have a good day, Jerry
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MattH
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Hi Jerry and curious bystanders.
Your explanation is very good ,teacher. I should bring you an apple to assist with my “peer review” application. ( attempted satire )
The 18.6 year lunar cycle is very seldom acknowledged. Then you have your apogee, perigee cycle which creates a separate oscillation. And then you have your new moon, first quarter, full moon, last quarter cycles and when you combine the above mentioned cycles you have random, or non linear, if you prefer.
Another thing seldom mentioned with moon, climate, and weather is atmospheric tides. When the moon is in it’s extreme Northern and Southern cycle extremes to what degree does this influence Southern Annular Mode and Northern Annular Mode, an issue I have never seen acknowledged or addressed? Or simply a full moon coinciding with a perigee coinciding with a Southern or Northern cycle limit irrespective of in what part of the 18.6 year cycle it occurs.
The concept of the moon influencing El Nino, La Nina changes is a case of “what else has the power to do such a thing?”. Well the other thing could be sun behaviour and huge tropical storms redirecting oceanic currents but if this was the case it would be relatively easy to correlate, which has not been done.
Whilst this article includes conjecture of little credibility it does remind us of the many variables influencing life in the universe.
Equinox is in three weeks, check your wardrobe.
Have a nice day. Matt
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Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
How much light is illuminating the moon (full, quarter,…) has no effect on the mass of the moon so for those who believe that the attractive force (gravity) is a function of mass the phases of the moon should not matter, only its position relative to the sun and Earth. Since the Earth rotates under the moon and the force is measured from the center of the sphere I don’t see where it would affect the atmosphere much.
Why do the shepherds of Englands have their animals out in the pasture at night on the 21st of January?
Herb
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Herb Rose
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December 21st.
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MattH
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Hi Herb.
Herb “How much light is illuminating the moon (full, quarter,…) has no effect on the mass of the moon so for those who believe that the attractive force (gravity) is a function of mass the phases of the moon should not matter, only its position relative to the sun and Earth.”
Matt. The phases of the moon do dictate position of moon relative to the sun and Earth. First and last quarter are at approx. ninety degrees in relation to earth sun alignment, hence neap tides. ( Small tides. )
Full and new moons the moon is relatively aligned with earth sun alignment.
Cheers Matt
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Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
I realize that half the moon and half the Earth are always illuminated by the sun. But by using the phase of the moon instead of saying the the alignment of the moon with the sun and Earth it tends to make the amount of light seem to be the causative factor.
Herb
MattH
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Hi Herb. I possibly take it for granted that moon phase and time of year dictates tidal ( gravity ) variations.
With my fishing I also have to assess wind direction and strength, and barometric pressure to predict low tide height in relation to chart datum height.
Jolly good.
Matt
Jerry Krause
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Hi Herb,
Where would you expect them to have their sheep at that early time???
Have a good day, Jerry
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Herb Rose
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Hi Jerry,
In a barn or an enclosure close to their homes or even in the houses.There certainly isn’t much grass to eat on the first day of winter but there is danger from cold and predators. On December 25th there were no shepherds tending their sheep in the fields around Bethlehem.
Herb
Jerry Krause
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Hi Herb,
Almost by definition shepherds are nomadic because their flocks are so large they need to keep moving to find sufficient feed their flocks. This is more true during the winter when there is less sunlight to grow grass and the grass likes warm and not cold to grow also.
I doubt if all the shepherd went to Bethlehem, but if they God the Father could have looked after the flock. However, sheep with their wool coats during the winter have no trouble with cold.
Have a good day, Jerry
Herb Rose
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Hi again Matt,
The Atlantic has a 5000 km current flowing west at the equator. It has enough power to push warm water up the coast of America (Gulf Stream) and over to Great Britain, warming it
The Pacific has a 17,000 km current flowing west on the Equator. How much power does it have?
Herb.
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MattH
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Hi again Herb.
The currents you mention are more powerful than a V8 Chevy, agreed.
The issue is forcing a variation in those currents to propagate El Nino, La Nina changes.
I have rationalized the moon is most likely to vary current vectors, velocity and direction for El Nino changes, than it is to cause a subsurface wave as suggested in this article.
What I have not addressed is the constant low pressure systems circling Antarctica, the emanating swell ( waves ) influencing current vectors. I discount this because those circling low pressure systems are so predictable.
This could be my error as 2 or 3 intense low pressure systems at consecutively variable latitude can create an unusual wind and swell fetch.
If you have three low pressure systems, the first closer to the equator and South America, the next further South, and the next further South again closer to New Zealand, would create a long continuous airstream ( fetch ) and a long continuous groundswell ( deep swell fetch ) which could influence subsurface currents to promote El Nino changes.
You read it here first.
Good on you Herb.
Matt
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Michael Clarke
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The differece in tides has nothing to do with the pahse of the moon regarding the light it sheds upon the Earth. The effects upon tides is pure gravity.
When the sun is in line with the moon we get King tides, and twelve hours later we get another high tide, BUT not another king tide!
Hope that explains the effect of Gravity upon the tides.
Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
I prefer my theory. Unlike the Atlantic equatorial current, where Brazil redirects it north causing it to become the Gulf Stream, the Pacific equatorial current runs into a partial dam formed by the Philippines and Indonesia. This dam causes warm water to collect on the surface where it eventually becomes hotter than the current. The current then flows under the hotter water and when it now strikes the islands it is redirected up where its force pushes the hot water east as el Nino.
Herb
MattH
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Hi Herb.
Apart from the fact I did not think of it your concept has merit.
If it is true then one should be able to predict an El Nino by water temperature and extent ( square kilometers ) and depth
of that temperature in the Western Equatorial Pacific.
I wanna claim it was my idea.
Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
Go ahead and claim it as yours.
The reason El Nino occurs in December is because the focal point (most intense sun light) is over the southern tropics (Capricorn) heating the southern water. This expanding water pushes north causing the eastern flow of warm water to occur in the northern hemisphere along the edge of the.equitorial current.
Herb
Michael Clarke
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Just in case you are confused about the gravity of this phenonium, The day that we get a king tide and I do mean DAY we don’t get a king tide in Western Australia. It is pure gravity when the earth and sun align EXACTLY we get a king tide. Simple!
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Moffin
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And of course those king tides occur during the equinox when the sun is closest to the equator.
Good on you Master Logician. I hope your health is holding in there.
Moffin.
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Herb Rose
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Hi Michael,
When the alignment goes sun-moon-Earth, all the mass is pulling in one direction, so why is there a high tide on the opposite side of the Earth? The explanation of variation from the average is nonsense, force vectors add. That’s not as bad as the articles explanation, greater centrifugal force. Does the Earth rotate faster on the far side?
Herb
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Michael Clarke
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Hi There Herb, you do NOT get a king tide when the sun is NOT in the sky! It has to be exact it has to be precise, it happens quite rarely!
The high tide is NOT the same as a King tide!
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M
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A more scientific term for these naturally occurring King Tides is perigean spring tides.
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Michael Clarke
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Just in case you are confused about the cause of a King Tide, it is gravity it only happens when the Sun moon and Earth are in a straight line a conjunction that is. Not when the sun and moon and the earth are forming a triangle with the moon off to one side or the other of that EXACT alignment!
Got it, and it is Gravity that causes that King Tide. as it does to all earth Moon effects upon the tides, it has NOTHING to do with the illumination of the moon or the tiny amount of energy received from the illuminated moon!
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Michael Clarke
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Now ask your self this, why are the tide tables sometimes wrong, by up to 30 minutes!. It has to do with the Weather!
Regards from an old blue water sailor and Logician
Michael
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Moffin
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And sea state. Swell accelerating or opposing current.
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MattH
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Oh And very high barometric pressure appears to make low tide early and delay the flood tide.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
How does a TEACHER reward a STUDENT for a STUDENT’S GREAT ACHIEVEMENT. The teacher gives this student an A+ and STARS the student’s report paper.
A+ ******
Have a good day MattH, Jerry
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH and other PSI Readers,
This morning I finally saw (observed) something about which I have never WRITTEN to myself or anyone else.
Inherent to the idea that bodies twice as heavy fall twice as fast is that bodies fall at a constant rate.
I have read that more than one author has written that Galileo never actually did the experiments he described. That instead he only did “thought experiments” as Aristotle and the other Greek Philosophers rationally reasoned WRONG IDEAS.
So I ask you, a STUDENT, what thought (or actual) experiments did Galileo write about which proved that bodies did not fall at a constant rate???
And I warn you that you (OR NO ONE) can answer this question unless you (ONE) actually reads what Galileo ACTUALLY WROTE!!!
(https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/galilei-dialogues-concerning-two-new-sciences)
Have a good day, Jerry
Herb Rose
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Hi Michael,
There are some places (I believe it is in islands in the Pacific) where there is only one high tide per day and other places (Inchon) where they are erratic. There are many factors that effect tides, but they are caused by gravity from the moon and sun. The question is, when the alignment is sun-moon-Earth and you experience your king tide why is there also a large high tide on the other side of the Earth when there is no mass pulling on the water in that direction?
Herb
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Lunatictoctarian
| #
It also has pronounced biological effects like turning me into werewolves.
Sidereal seas:
Impossible tortured shapes
In uncanny theatric vigour
Haunt the petrified forest
Through which I trace the path
To the bitumen grounds
Where my bloodline linger
Descend the marble steps
Scintillating in the eerie light
Of a mercurial moon
Suspended in ageless journey
Across infinite sidereal seas
Beyond confines of constellations
In wraithform forever to abide
Transcend the ebony gates
Guarded by the outcasts of fortune
To colossal limestone vaults
Where cognate roots tarnish
Insonorous contemplation
And August replete antiquity
Beyond confines of constellations
In wraithform forever to abide
Merge with archaic intelligence
Devoid of mortal embodiment
Swept by empyrian tides
Into the maelstrom of oblivion
Highly Suspect…
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH, Micheal, Herb and PSI Readers,
Thank you very much for making this a conversation!!!
Now, evidently you are not aware that there is an about 56-year “lunar nodal cycle” since no one has yet mentioned it.
For after three about 18.6-year cycles the cycles start over on the nearly the same days of a year. So if one compares tides and weather on same day 56 years before, one compare (predict) these tides and possibly weather.
I had previously WRONGLY REASONED that one needed wait 56-years to do. But I see there are observed and recorded tides and weather for every day 56-years and probably 112 years ago with which to begin to do this study tomorrow. Now, I lean on you Michael because you have the experience and talent to do the heavy lifting with a software program. For I first suspect you know how to even access this archived government data.
Let us all know what you ponder about this 56-year lunar nodal cycle. 56 keeps coming up. So, does one simply divide a circle into 7ths by drawing circles and right lines??? As I consider that the ancient people, who dug 56 regularly spaced holes in a reasonably circular circle, had learn how to do.
Have a good a day, Jerry
.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Commenters and Readers,
This comment is totally off topic our good conversation but I most alert you to grand experiment which was conducted yesterday in Oregon (one of the most locked down state in the USA. This experiment was the first day of the OREGON STATE FAIR and the attendance was likely (my estimate) one the higher ever. And even though the governor has ordered mask to worn on all state property (indoor and outdoor) I estimate that 50% were not wearing masks.
And social distancing, as we left we could see its grandstand packed shoulder to shoulder with those attending a concert and lines of people still waiting to get into the stadium. So we all must watch to see if there is a dramatic increase in the new flu cases as the result of this one day experiment.
More on topic I remind you of my Infrared Thermometer which I regularly use monitor the sky and ground surface temperature. Of which it seems there is only a small percentage of PSI commenters who believe these temperature measurements have any validity. But I report that this morning, well before sunrise the sky temperature straight up was -2F and straight down was 61F. From which I conducted that that there was very little downward scattering, of the upward infrared radiation being emitted from the surface, by suspended particles in the atmosphere.
And, given our discussion about the influence of the lunar nodal cycle, I consider that we should not ignore that R. C, Sutcliffe, ‘Weather & Climate’, wrote: “Clouds which do not give rain, which never even threaten to give rain but which dissolve again into vapor before the precipitation stage is ever reached, have a profound effect on our climate.” (pp 33). And it is easy to observe that when the sky is overcast during the nighttime that observed temperature is commonly nearly constant during the nighttime hours. So if the moon’s nodal cycle has any influence upon temperature it need to have an influence upon general cloudiness.
Have a good day, Jerry
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MattH
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Hi Herb, Jerry, and curious bystanders.
While I acknowledge Herb’s description of the the warm pool of water in the Western Pacific needs to “spill over to the central America” we still have not identified the trigger for the El Nino event nor it’s intensity or longevity.
The moon and the weather pattern I described producing 3,000 mile fetch of ground swell vectoring from the South Pacific towards Central America could still be a part of the trigger mechanism for El Nino.
The difficulty is the warm water pool has to travel East against prevailing ocean currents flowing in a Westerly direction and against the surface friction of the Walker Cell winds travelling in a Westerly direction, or does it.
One further consideration is the “doldrums”. The Easterly Walker Cell winds do not exist for an approximately four hundred mile wide belt across the Pacific Ocean surface because of the equatorial heat intensity.
The wind in this belt is generally one of vertical convection which leaves us with the doldrums.
Pacific convergent zone maps
https://www.google.com/search?q=pacific+convergence+zone-map&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=mKcyD5gp1KHnIM%252CcLTCkdZBzRyoeM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kQaGfMeS28FjZBeThScX5rzdg6piw&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjH0dGm-NPyAhXiyzgGHR9TAagQ9QF6BAgKEAE#imgrc=q_kCUdYCoEHe6M
The other thing I was not aware of is the Cromwell current which is a subsurface oceanic current under the doldrums going the wrong way, or against the prevailing current.
https://handwiki.org/wiki/Earth:Cromwell_Current
So here we have a couple of new factors to ponder. Thank you for reading
Cheers. Matt
One could rationalise the big the
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Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
All the water in the oceans is traveling east, just slower than the land because of inertia. If the Earth’s rotations to stop the east coast ofEurope and Africa would be flooded along with the west coasts of the Americas.
As for the triggering mechanism do you think it is a coincidence that it happens in December when the sun is heating the water south of the equator more than the water north of the equator?
As for the occurrence only happening at several year intervals. The current carries water that because it is travelling west (actually east at a slower rate)
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Herb Rose
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Hi Matt,
My computer just went berserk and posted my comment in the middle of my typing. I think it has something to do with the annoying pop up ads.
The water traveling west is exposed to and heated more by the sun at the equator, because that is where the Earth is traveling east the fastest. (Think of it as flying through different time zones.) That water collects in the pool formed by the island and is further heated by the sun. This would cause the pool to expand north and south. It would require time to heat this water to where it was hotter than the current causing the current to sink under the pool and displace it. In December the sun would be over the tropic of Capricorn heating the water and causing it to expand pushing the surface water north.
Since wind only interfaces with the surface of the water IMO its action would produce waves, not deep or sustained currents and is not a cause of El Nino.
Herb
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MattH
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Hi Herb, Jerry, Michael, and readers.
Our communication on these issues has given me more than enough to cross reference for some time. Thank you all.
I was not aware of the 56 year moon cycle so that needs some research cheers Jerry.
Herb. Your considerable contribution to El Nino mechanisms needs some time to consider further so I can get the flavour of it.
Michael. I have had to check my tide charts a little more. The last two years our local spring tides peaked at the biggest I have ever seen. 3.7Metres. This year’s and next years biggest tides are 3.5 M.
The lunar perigee-apogee cycle is marginally shorter than lunar full moon- new moon cycle so those 3.7 spring tides I may never see again in my life time as I had never seen them before. I appreciate you may already know these things Michael, but other readers may not so I record this.
It seems to be a rare thing where a scientific article or paper does not overlook a fundamental contributing factor.
Best wishes to you all. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.
Matt
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH and others,
I was composing a comment somewhat similar to this comment.
It went like this: in science our ideas are always uncertain. All we can do is absolutely prove what is not true. I consider I have this in the cases of the idea of the GHE and Darwin’s theory of evolutionary creation.
Relative other ideas on the table we are uncertain and relative to these uncertain ideas I see nothing that can be prove wrong. Except ideas like there are no water molecules in the earth’s atmosphere and the result of that some people refuse to accept the most obvious observations which prove the idea to be absolutely wrong
But then you report tides higher than seemingly ever before. And here in Oregon we have observed high temperatures far above any that has been observed before. You wrote about next years predicted tides. Were these record high tides PREDICTED??? If they were; some one knows why (how). If they were not predicted there had to have been some factor, or factors, which caused them. In either case there must be an observable factor which caused them
Our extreme record temperatures were predicted maybe ten says before their occurrences. So the meteorologist most have observed something (s) that caused this deviation from average.
Hence, we, as scientist, should be curious what this something might be.
Now I remember a story that Linus Pauling told at a seminar at Oregon State U from where he earned his first degree of high education. His son had presented a problem to him and he stated he promptly forgot about it; Because he knew he had a subconscious mind that continually tried to solve problems. And sure enough, it did and the answer had very useful consequences. So we maybe need to just forget about it more instead of studying a problem more.
Have a good day, Jerry
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Jerry Krause
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Hi PSI Readers,
During my morning coffee I pondered words. I have quoted Louis Elzevir several times: “Intuitive knowledge keeps pace with accurate definition.” (as translated by Crew & de Salvio). And I had pondered that I had learned the difference between accuracy and precision in my Quantitative Analysis chemistry class.
Then I came to my computer and read this email which had been forwarded to me by my cousin.
“Mergatroyd ? Do you remember that word? Would you believe the spell-checker did not recognize the word, Mergatroyd Heavens to Mergatroyd! The other day a not so elderly (I say 75) lady said something to her son about driving a Jalopy; and he looked at her quizzically and said, “What the heck is a Jalopy?” He had never heard of the word jalopy! She knew she was old …But not that old. Well, I hope you are Hunky Dory when you read this and chuckle. About a month ago, I illuminated some old expressions that have become obsolete because of the inexorable march of technology. These phrases included: Don’t touch that dial; Carbon copy; You sound like a broken record; and Hung out to dry. Back in the olden days we had a lot of moxie . We’d put on our best bib and tucker, to straighten up and fly right. Heavens to Betsy! Gee whillikers! Jumping Jehoshaphat! Holy Moley! We were in like Flynn and living the life of Riley ; and even a regular guy couldn’t accuse us of being a knucklehead, a nincompoop or a pill. Not for all the tea in China! Back in the olden days, life used to be swell, but when’s the last time anything was swell? Swell has gone the way of beehives, pageboys and the D.A.; of spats, knickers, fedoras, poodle skirts, saddle shoes,and pedal pushers. Oh, my aching back! Kilroy was here, but he isn’t anymore. We wake up from what surely has been just a short nap, and before we can say, “Well, I’ll be a monkey’s uncle!” Or, “This is a fine kettle of fish!” We discover that the words we grew up with, the words that seemed omnipresent, as oxygen, have vanished with scarcely a notice from our tongues and our pens and our keyboards. Poof, go the words of our youth, the words we’ve left behind. We blink, and they’re gone. Where have all those great phrases gone? Long gone: Pshaw, The milkman did it. Hey! It’s your nickel. Don’t forget to pull the chain. Knee high to a grasshopper. Well, Fiddlesticks! Going like sixty. I’ll see you in the funny papers. Don’t take any wooden nickels. Wake up and smell the roses. It turns out there are more of these lost words and expressions than Carter has liver pills. This can be disturbing stuff! (Carter’s Little Liver Pills are gone too!) Leaves us to wonder where Superman will find a phone booth. See ya later, alligator! Okidoki . You’ll notice they left out “Monkey Business”!!! WE ARE THE CHILDREN OF THE FABULOUS 50’S… NO ONE WILL EVER HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY AGAIN … WE WERE GIVEN ONE OF OUR MOST PRECIOUS GIFTS:
LIVING IN THE PEACEFUL AND COMFORTABLE TIMES, CREATED FOR US BY THE “GREATEST GENERATION!”
Coincidence??? To me a very important word, for I define coincidences like this to be a GOD SIGHTINGS!!!
We ALL should ponder the DEFINITIONS of ALL the WORDS we use to COMMUNICATE IDEAS.
Have a good day, Jerry
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