The Sinking Pacific Islands That Are Not Sinking

Besides polar bears and violent storms, one of the most popular visuals for climate alarmists is the threat of small Pacific islands like Tuvalu and Vanuatu being submerged by rising seas

And if you look at (some of – Ed) the climate science literature you can find ample reason to worry.

For instance this 2006 study examines sea level rise in the tropical Pacific and concludes:

“The analysis clearly indicates that sea-level in this region is rising. We expect that the continued and increasing rate of sea-level rise and any resulting increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme sea-level events will cause serious problems for the inhabitants of some of these islands during the 21st century.”

Fortunately in climate science you never have to wait too long for someone to conclude the opposite. In this case it was four years.

In 2010 a study appeared looking not just at sea level rise but at the dynamics of the coral atolls themselves. It didn’t argue that the sea wasn’t rising; instead it argued that as the sea levels rise, so do the island tops.

The coral base grows and the wave action throws new layers of sediment onto the shores. By studying aerial photography the authors were able to show that over the preceding decades most of the small islands had remained stable in size or gotten even bigger as the sea levels had risen.

Only 14 percent of the islands in the region had experienced a net loss of land area. 86 percent were stable or increasing.

The authors note that this finding runs against the then-prevalent view:

“Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea-level rise in the central Pacific.”

In particular they note that “island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.”

Which in plain English means that instead of figuring out how to move away to higher ground, the islands might need to start figuring out what they will do with all the extra space they may get from rising sea levels.