The Psychology of War: Israel’s Mental-Health Crisis Through a Scientific Lens
Israel is descending into a widespread mental health crisis following a familiar pattern known to science. Such large-scale violent conflict has consistently been shown to produce substantial, long-lasting mental-health impacts among whole populations.
More than a year after the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Israel is experiencing one of the most dramatic demonstrations of this phenomenon recorded in contemporary research. Multiple datasets—from national surveys, health-system statistics, academic publications, and independent government audits—converge on the same conclusion: the war has triggered a mass psychological event, consistent with international findings that armed conflict is one of the strongest predictors of population-wide trauma, anxiety disorders, and depressive symptoms.
This article examines Israel’s mental-health crisis through the lens of scientific research on trauma, providing evidence for the central claim that war produces profound and far-reaching psychological injuries.
1. Conflict as a Predictor of Population-Wide Trauma
Decades of research demonstrate that exposure to war significantly increases the risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depressive disorder (MDD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), substance-use disorders, and prolonged grief (Charlson et al., 2019; Steel et al., 2009). These effects appear not only among directly exposed survivors but also among populations who experience the conflict through displacement, chronic threat, or media exposure (Holman et al., 2014; Ben-Ezra et al., 2017).
Israel’s experience since October 7 aligns closely with these global findings. A major nationwide prospective study published in JAMA Network Open found that probable PTSD rates nearly doubled, rising from 16.2% before the attacks to 29.8% afterward (Bodas et al., 2024). Probable depression rose from 31.3% to 44.8%, while probable GAD increased from 24.9% to 42.7%. These levels are comparable to those observed in civilian populations during the wars in Iraq, Bosnia, and Syria—events long considered among the most psychologically destructive of the modern era.
Notably, such dramatic population-level shifts almost never occur outside of large-scale disasters or political violence.
2. Stress Exposure Pathways: Why War Causes Widespread Trauma
Scientific literature identifies several mechanisms through which conflict triggers mental-health disorders:
a. Direct exposure
Survivors of violence, torture, captivity, or life-threatening events exhibit the highest PTSD risk (Keane et al., 2018). Thousands of Israelis directly witnessed the October 7 massacres, kidnappings, and destruction, placing them in the highest-risk clinical category.
b. Chronic threat and unpredictability
Even individuals far from the frontlines experience trauma through prolonged exposure to danger cues—sirens, rocket alerts, displacement, and uncertainty about personal safety (Hobfoll et al., 2007). Israel has been under repeated rocket fire from Gaza and Hezbollah for over a year, creating a continuous stress environment.
c. Loss and bereavement
War produces widespread complicated grief, particularly when deaths are violent, sudden, or unresolved (Shear, 2012). Nearly half of Israelis now report experiencing ongoing grief reactions.
d. Moral injury
Soldiers and first responders may experience psychological injury from participation in or exposure to violence that violates internal moral codes (Litz et al., 2009). This phenomenon has been documented among Israeli soldiers returning from Gaza and among recovery workers from ZAKA who handled mass-casualty scenes.
e. Media exposure
Repeated viewing of violent or traumatic content significantly increases risk of acute stress and long-term mental-health problems (Holman et al., 2014). Israelis were intensively exposed to footage from the October 7 attacks, hostages, and ongoing military operations.
Taken together, these pathways create what trauma researchers describe as a population saturation effect, where the majority of citizens encounter enough direct or indirect stressors to elevate their risk of psychiatric disorders.
3. Evidence of Severe Psychological Impact Within Israel
Across multiple institutions, the data show a steep rise in psychological distress:
PTSD and trauma disorders
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PTSD diagnoses grew by 70% month-over-month from October 2023 through late 2024, adding more than 23,600 new clinical cases.
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Academic estimates suggest millions may exhibit subclinical or undiagnosed trauma symptoms, consistent with the high rates in war-affected populations globally (Charlson et al., 2019).
Depression and anxiety
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Health Ministry data indicate that diagnoses of depression and anxiety in 2024 were double those recorded in 2013.
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This mirrors findings from meta-analyses demonstrating that war exposure increases depressive symptoms 3–4 fold (Steel et al., 2009).
Helpline data
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Calls to ERAN, Israel’s main mental-health hotline, increased six-fold.
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Anxiety-related calls rose nearly 1,000%, consistent with patterns observed after terrorist attacks and mass disasters worldwide (North & Pfefferbaum, 2013).
Medication usage
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Psychiatric drug prescriptions have nearly doubled, indicating both clinical diagnosis and self-reported distress.
Children and adolescents
Israeli schools report large increases in behavioural dysregulation, sleep disturbance, and separation anxiety—symptoms strongly linked to conflict exposure (Dybdahl, 2001).
First responders and soldiers
Research from other conflicts suggests that emergency workers often exhibit the highest PTSD rates, sometimes exceeding 30–40% (Greene et al., 2021). Israeli data mirror this: the State Comptroller found extremely high exposure among ZAKA workers, soldiers, and medical staff, many of whom are not receiving sufficient care.
4. A Public-Health System Under Extreme Strain
Israel’s mental-health infrastructure, like many national systems, was not built for a sudden nationwide trauma event. This aligns with global research showing that wars often overwhelm mental-health systems and create prolonged “treatment deserts” (Patel et al., 2018).
Therapist shortages
Israel has a limited number of trauma-trained clinicians, paralleling international patterns where mental-health supply rarely meets wartime demand.
Long delays
Average waiting time for treatment in Israel’s public system now exceeds six months—a delay long known to worsen clinical outcomes (Wang et al., 2007).
Limited access
Despite millions reporting trauma symptoms, only 0.6% of the population received public mental-health services in the first six months post-attack. Similar treatment gaps have been documented in Lebanon, Iraq, and Ukraine, where between 80–95% of people meeting diagnostic criteria receive no care (Charlson et al., 2019).
Short-term over long-term care
A rapid 471% increase in short-term psychotherapy (three sessions) suggests the system is providing palliative, not curative, responses. Research shows that trauma frequently requires long-term, structured therapy (e.g., CBT, EMDR) to prevent chronic PTSD (Bisson et al., 2013).
This treatment bottleneck is not merely administrative—it is a scientifically validated driver of worsening public-health outcomes.
5. Why War’s Psychological Effects Persist for Years
Longitudinal studies show that war-related PTSD and depression often endure for a decade or more without proper treatment (Marshall et al., 2005). Several factors predict long-term persistence:
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Continued exposure to threat
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Displacement
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Lack of social support
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Economic instability
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Unresolved grief
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Insufficient therapeutic intervention
Israel’s current circumstances—ongoing conflict on multiple fronts, economic pressure, mass internal displacement, and political instability—indicate that unless major intervention occurs, the psychological aftershocks of October 7 may shape Israeli public health for years or decades.
6. Global Scientific Context: Israel’s Crisis Is Consistent With War Psychology Research
The patterns emerging in Israel align closely with findings from major meta-analyses and WHO global mental-health assessments:
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War-affected populations exhibit PTSD prevalence of 15–37% (Steel et al., 2009).
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Depression and anxiety increase by 3–4x in conflict settings (Charlson et al., 2019).
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Chronic exposure—even without direct violence—produces measurable trauma responses (Holman et al., 2014).
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First responders demonstrate higher PTSD than civilians (Greene et al., 2021).
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Treatment gaps often exceed 80%, worsening long-term outcomes (Patel et al., 2018).
Israel’s data fall squarely within these global patterns, though the speed and scale of the October 7 shock may place it on the higher end of the spectrum.
7. Conclusion: War as a Public-Health Emergency
Scientific literature is unequivocal: war is one of the strongest predictors of widespread, long-lasting mental illness. The psychological impact of October 7 and the war that followed has created a textbook case of population-level trauma.
Israel now faces a mental-health emergency marked by:
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unprecedented levels of PTSD, depression, and anxiety
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overwhelmed health systems
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millions experiencing trauma symptoms
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increased substance use and grief
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children and adolescents at significant developmental risk
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frontline workers carrying the heaviest psychological burdens
This crisis is not an anomaly. It is what decades of research predict when a society is exposed to sudden mass violence and prolonged conflict. The scientific message is clear: the psychological costs of war are vast, measurable, and enduring. Addressing them will require sustained investment in trauma-informed care, system-wide reform, and a long-term commitment to public mental-health recovery.
References (Selected Scientific Sources)
Bisson, J. I., Roberts, N. P., Andrew, M., Cooper, R., & Lewis, C. (2013). Psychological therapies for chronic post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews.
Bodas, M., et al. (2024). Psychological Distress Before and After the October 7 Attacks. JAMA Network Open.
Charlson, F. J., et al. (2019). New WHO estimates of mental disorders in conflict settings. The Lancet.
Dybdahl, R. (2001). Children and mothers in war: An outcome study of a psychosocial intervention program. Child Development.
Greene, T., et al. (2021). PTSD among emergency responders: A systematic review. British Journal of Psychiatry.
Hobfoll, S. E., et al. (2007). Five essential elements of immediate and mid-term mass trauma intervention. Psychiatry.
Holman, E. A., Garfin, D. R., & Silver, R. C. (2014). Media’s role in broadcasting acute stress during crisis events. PNAS.
Keane, T. M., et al. (2018). The nature and treatment of PTSD. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology.
Litz, B. T., et al. (2009). Moral injury and moral repair in war veterans. Clinical Psychology Review.
Marshall, G. N., et al. (2005). Long-term trajectories of PTSD after mass violence. Journal of Traumatic Stress.
Patel, V., et al. (2018). The Lancet Commission on Global Mental Health and Sustainable Development. The Lancet.
Shear, M. K. (2012). Grief and mourning gone awry. American Journal of Psychiatry.
Steel, Z., et al. (2009). The global prevalence of common mental disorders in war-affected populations. JAMA.
Wang, P. S., et al. (2007). Delay and failure in treatment seeking after the onset of mental disorders. Archives of General Psychiatry.
About the author: John O’Sullivan is CEO and co-founder (with Dr Tim Ball) of Principia Scientific International (PSI). He is a seasoned science writer, retired teacher and legal analyst who assisted skeptic climatologist Dr Ball in defeating UN climate expert, Michael ‘hockey stick’ Mann in the multi-million-dollar ‘science trial of the century‘. From 2010 O’Sullivan led the original ‘Slayers’ group of scientists who complied the book ‘Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory’ debunking alarmist lies about carbon dioxide plus their follow-up climate book. His most recent publication, ‘Slaying the Virus and Vaccine Dragon’ broadens PSI’s critiques of mainstream medical group think and junk science.
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