The Natural World Is Cyclic
A cycle has two extremes and two middles. The motion of a pendulum has two high points and one low point, which it passes through twice. The phases of the moon are a new moon, a full moon, and two quarter moons.
Newton’s great feat, which maybe is not commonly acknowledged, is he explained how there were two diurnal ocean tidal cycles each day which were obviously influenced by the moon’s cycle as it revolved (orbited) about the earth once about every 25 hours as the earth rotated about its axis with a period of 24 hours. Clearly these cycles have a period of time associated with them.
I have begun this essay because as I considered what was the measured value of the upwelling infrared radiation (UWIR) being emitted by a snow surface at NOAA’s Fort Peck MT SURFRAD (surface radiation) site. (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/surfrad/metplot.html) And because of limiting criteria I was having trouble locating such a snow surface what I considered an ideal situation.
So, after submitting my essay, Problem—Earth Surface Temperature Measurement (https://principia-scientific.com/problem-earth-surface-temperature-measurement/), I continued searching for a another, and better, example to support the observations upon which this essay was based.
First, I discover that at the end of January, 2009 there were an abundance (at least 8 consecutive days) of unquestionable snow surfaces with a wide range of air temperatures (ATs). Then, I remembered that I had read about the unique weather of this year. Then, I remembered that I had read about a possible 9 year weather cycle so I looked back at the 2018 data and that of 2000.
And I found that there had been a constant snow surface at Fort Peck for the same 8 days during these two additional years. Then, I looked at the SURFRAD data for 2014 and 2005 and discovered there had only been a soil surface for these same 8 consecutive days. Even though I have often stated weather is random and therefore cannot be modelled with a computer, I have to accept that weather is cyclic as the basis of this evidence.
But as I just stated I had read that others had observed the probability of a nine-year weather cycle. However, I had learned that the moon’s cyclic motions relative to the earth has an approximate 18.6 year period and an approximate 56 year period. I learned about this astronomically observed fact because the prehistoric builders of Stonehenge had learned about (observed) this 18.6 year period by watching where the moon rose over the eastern horizon at Stonehenge.
Of course, most of us present-day, more intelligent, human beings have never regularly observed the moon rising over an eastern horizon so we have no idea of what these prehistoric saw.
I have yet to read (and I have in my ‘library’ most of the scholarly books written about Stonehenge) about cyclic tidal oscillations that occur only a few prehistorical day’s hike from Stonehenge near the end of the Bristol Channel. And the range of these semidiurnal oscillations during the spring tides can be 40 feet.
Imagine, if these prehistoric people, who dug 56 regularly spaced holes in a quite precise circle, had come from the Mediterranean region where tidal oscillations are barely discernible. And I have not read, in the context of Stonehenge, that there are usually 56 semi-diurnal tidal oscillations during the moon’s phase cycle. Sometimes there are 58.
Until I read about Stonehenge I did not know that where the moon rises from behind the eastern horizon each phase cycle is similar to where the sun rises during the period of a year. But not exactly for the plane on which the moon orbits the earth is inclined to the plane on which the earth orbits the sun.
Once I began to consider the topic of natural astronomical cycles I thought of word I had not read lately—precession. For other reasons I had been reminded of another word—perturbation—which I had not read recently.
“The Earth’s axis rotates (precesses) just as a spinning top does. The period of precession is about 26,000 years. Therefore, the North Celestial Pole will not always be point towards the same starfield. Precession is caused by the gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon on the Earth.” (www.astro.cornell.edu/academics/courses/astro201/earth_precess.htm)
I consider the cause of this precession of the earth’s axis to be a gravitational perturbation upon its more commonly recognized motion. But, sometime, somewhere, I had been taught that possibly more significant where the earth’s axis points is the shift of the earth’s seasons relative to where it is on its yearly elliptical orbit (path).
For at the present time the earth is near the sun during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season. But I have been taught that in 10,000 years or so it will be furthest from the sun in the winter. Which we understand (know) will mean that the incident solar radiation during the winter season will be about 3{154653b9ea5f83bbbf00f55de12e21cba2da5b4b158a426ee0e27ae0c1b44117} less.
Then, when I recently read that the last glaciers, which covered large portions of the Northern Hemisphere’s continents, recently melted only about 12,500 years ago, I began to ponder if there might be some relationship between the precession of the earth’s axis and climate change.
So, as I ponder, I conclude there may be many things, which we know, about which are not being commonly written at this time.
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