The #CRE Challenge Part 3: Surface temperature correlations
Continuing our examination of Prof. Qing-Bin Lu’s CRE model of ‘climate change’ we come to the third in his list of key pieces of evidence: the post-1970 correlation between halo-‘GHG’s and global average surface temperatures compared to the over-estimation of warming that happens when CO2 is assumed to be the driver
How much of the post-1970 warming can be explained by halo-‘GHG’s without invoking CO2?
Lu computes 97 percent. Now there’s a consensus.
In these two charts Lu shows the concentration of halo-GHGs (hollow diamonds) compared with the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST, solid black squares) and GMST after removing the influences of volcanoes and the El Niño (solid red squares).
The left panel plots both against time (1970-2022) and the right panel shows a scatter plot of GMST against halo-GHGs. The fitted line in the right panel explains 97 percent of the evolution of GMST after 1970:
Lu also points out that from 1850 to 1950 CO2 rose steadily in the atmosphere but the Antarctic region cooled, despite it being a place where amplified warming should be expected. The evolution of both data series is shown in the chart on the left:
In the chart on the right Lu provides a scatter plot of temperature changes against the CO2 concentration, visually demonstrating the negative correlation.
Lu uses the IPCC radiative forcing model to show that from 1850 to 1970 the observed increase in CO2 plus methane and nitrous oxide should have caused 0.93 °C warming but only 0.25 °C was observed.
He says the IPCC modelers account for this by claiming aerosols caused an offsetting cooling.
Alternatively, he notes, halo-‘GHG’s only grew a little prior to 1970 so there is no need to speculate about aerosol cooling.
You might notice that the halo-‘GHG’ line in the first graph above grows quickly up to 2000 then levels off.
Sort of like a hiatus. Stay tuned.
See more here climatediscussionnexus
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Herb Rose
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In order for CO2 to heat the surface 442 CO2 molecules must add energy to the 1 billion molecules on the surface. You would think that these CO2 molecules must contain a great amount of energy but according to the theory the molecules are getting energy from the molecules on the surface and have the same amount of energy as all the other gas molecules in the atmosphere.
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