Storms Don’t Care About Politics
When Hurricane Helene dumped up to two feet of rain across the Carolinas in September 2024, it left thousands of residents grappling with destruction, evacuation, and uncertainty.
Streets in Asheville turned into rivers, homes were submerged, and entire neighborhoods faced devastation.
But according to the Washington Post’s climate resilience rankings, Buncombe County, home to Asheville, was supposedly well-prepared to handle such disasters. Neighboring counties, however, were deemed less resilient, even as they endured similar impacts.
This disconnect between on-the-ground realities and resilience rankings raises a troubling question: Are these rankings about helping communities prepare for disasters, or are they merely political posturing disguised as science?
Resilience Rankings vs. Reality in Buncombe County
The Post’s resilience map paints Buncombe County in a favorable light, touting its ability to “rebound from adversity.” The rankings emphasize metrics like education, infrastructure spending, and life expectancy, factors that disproportionately benefit urban, Democrat-leaning areas. Yet, when Hurricane Helene struck, Buncombe County’s supposed resilience was nowhere to be found.
During the storm, Buncombe County experienced catastrophic flooding, with rivers matching major historical flood thresholds (see graphic below). In just three days, the area received up to two feet of rain, overwhelming infrastructure and forcing evacuations. The rainfall map below illustrates the intensity of the storm, which inundated urban and rural areas alike.
This wasn’t a new phenomenon for Buncombe County. Asheville has a long history of devastating floods dating back to the 18th century. Geography, not governance, is the driving factor. Steep slopes and rapid runoff make the region inherently vulnerable, a reality no amount of political spin can erase.
Neighboring Counties: Equally Wet, Less Resilient?
While Buncombe County struggled, its neighbors, like Henderson and McDowell counties, faced similar flooding risks. However, these rural, Republican-leaning areas received far lower resilience scores from the Post.
Why? The rankings penalize counties for lacking urban infrastructure and higher incomes, even though these communities often employ practical, cost-effective measures to mitigate disaster risks.
Take Greenville County, South Carolina, as another example. Despite scoring lower in resilience, it faced outcomes comparable to Buncombe during Hurricane Helene. Similarly, Spartanburg County endured moderate to major flooding but, due to its rural makeup, was categorized as less resilient. The vulnerability map below highlights these discrepancies, painting rural counties in orange while urban areas like Asheville are labeled resilient.
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Robert Beatty
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The next global cooling cycle is likely to be presarged by high rainfall events. See
https://principia-scientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/global-cooling-beatty.pdf
Australia is seeing very wet conditions just now. Will 2025 be the start of the next world cooling event?
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MattH
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Hi Robert. When we look at the above average sea surface temperature plume in the Northern Pacific it is likely the higher evaporation rates will lead to more snowfall mass with possible glacier growth.
The source is off the East Coast of Japan where four tectonic plates meet.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif
Have a good day.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Robert,
“Will 2025 be the start of the next world cooling event?” Given your observation “Australia is seeing very wet conditions just now.” I believe 2024 was. The Willamette Valley of Oregon USA is also very wet. The river is flowing just below flood level. And the air temperature is 34F just after midnight. Maybe 5F or more below NORMAL Would need to look at the past 30 years low temperatures for this day to see what the range of this day’s lowest temperatures have been..
We need to forget about averaging temperatures and instead review what the the low air temperatures have been. And because it does not usually rain (precipitate) every day; we need to look at a given month’s total precipitation which has been measured each month for the past 30 years at a given location.
Have a good day
.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
Thanks for the head’s up. Even when I look at the NOAA data, I know it wouldn’t have any meaning to me because I had to study the NOAA link to see where the temperature plume in the North Pacific actually was. I will write more after I remember what I have read about higher average surface temperatures which obviously increase the water content of the atmosphere. Hence, greater amounts of precipitation and possible REAL climate change. Right now I cannot explain (in my mind) a cooler earth (land) surface.
Have a good day
Have a good day
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Robert,
Relative to the importance of NORMAL verus AVERAGE; one really needs to study the air temperature on one day (any day) at a given location for nearly a century (which is possible, just a little work).
For I have read how the people began STONEHENGE not only could have observed where the SUN rose over the eastern horizon, but also could have seen where the moon rose during each LUNAR CYCLE. Hence there is an approximate 18 year lunar cycle .which changes 3 times (56 years) until this cycle begins to repeat. The 100 years of data is just to convince doubters that these cycles have influence upon WEATHER and hence CLIMATE in the long run.
Have a good day
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Robert Beatty
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Jerry and MattH. I have just read my PSI referenced paper again and conclude that the weather is still headed for the start of a global cool period in 2025.
The NOAA CO2 figures have risen to 425 ppm – which shows SST continue to rise along with global humidity. The NOAA CO2 figures are reliable, despite their volcanic location, because they are high altitude readings, and carefully corrected. This fact provides a reliable correlation with Adiabetic winds that function around the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean, providing cold air to the high altitude World land masses.
In the mean time, Australia is struggling with an anthropogenic global warming crisis, which includes installing wind turbines throughout the land.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Robert,
Been reading physical chemistry books because of your comment relative to “Adiabetic winds”. And I have reminded myself that I am not a theorist nor a mathematician as a physical chemist. I am a practical experimentalist. And I take the time to do reproducible results and practically understand what I am measuring. with fundamental instruments. One of which is the simple and inexpensive IR Thermometer which measured the temperatures of surfaces. by measuring the infrared radiation being emitted from a solid or liquid surface. But I know there is no such thing as perfectly pure gas atmospheres and the tiny particles in the atmosphere do have surfaces.
Hence I point my IR thermometer directly upward to measure the temperature of clear blue skies. And I just did the and the temperature of the clear blue sky was negative 21F. This fall the coldest sky temperature had been only a little less than zero F. And it well be very interesting to what our air temperature will drop during the night. As you predicted our weather is becoming appreciably cooler (colder even).
have a good day
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