Solar storms are back, threatening life as we know it on Earth
Image: CC0 Public Domain
A few days ago, millions of tons of super-heated gas shot off from the surface of the sun and hurtled 90 million miles toward Earth.
The eruption, called a coronal mass ejection, wasn’t particularly powerful on the space-weather scale, but when it hit the Earth’s magnetic field it triggered the strongest geomagnetic storm seen for years. There wasn’t much disruption this time—few people probably even knew it happened—but it served as a reminder the sun has woken from a yearslong slumber.
While invisible and harmless to anyone on the Earth’s surface, the geomagnetic waves unleashed by solar storms can cripple power grids, jam radio communications, bathe airline crews in dangerous levels of radiation and knock critical satellites off kilter.
The sun began a new 11-year cycle last year and as it reaches its peak in 2025 the specter of powerful space weather creating havoc for humans grows, threatening chaos in a world that has become ever more reliant on technology since the last big storms hit 17 years ago. A recent study suggested hardening the grid could lead to $27 billion worth of benefits to the U.S. power industry.
“It is still remarkable to me the number of people, companies, who think space weather is Hollywood fiction,” said Caitlin Durkovich, a special assistant to President Joe Biden and senior director of resilience and response in the National Security Council, during a talk at a solar-weather conference last month.
The danger isn’t hypothetical. In 2017, a solar storm caused ham radios to turn to static just as the Category 5 Hurricane Irma was ripping through the Caribbean. In 2015, solar storms knocked out global positioning systems in the U.S. Northeast, a particular concern as self-driving cars become a reality. Airline pilots are at greater risk of developing cataracts when solar storms hit. Female crew see higher rates of miscarriages.
In March 1989, a solar storm over Quebec caused a province-wide outage that lasted nine hours, according to Hydro-Quebec’s website. A 2017 paper in the journal of the American Geophysical Union predicted blackouts caused by severe space weather could strike as much as 66% of the U.S. population, with economic losses reaching a potential $41.5 billion a day.
To head off such a catastrophe, President Barack Obama’s administration laid out a strategy to begin raising awareness of the dangers of massive solar storms and to assess the risks they pose. Last year, President Donald Trump signed the ProSwift bill into law, which aims to build up technology to improve forecasting and measurement of space weather events.
There’s debate among scientists about how much can be done to shield vulnerable parts of the planet’s infrastructure from the effects of solar storms. Steps such as using non-magnetic steel in transformers and installing more surge protectors in the grid could bolster resistance, but in the end the best defense against catastrophe might be better forecasting.
That would go a long way toward helping utilities prepare for shortages and making sure there are paths to back up their systems in case they lose power. In weeks, a new model developed by the University of Michigan will come online to help improve Earth-bound forecasting.
In the U.K., National Grid is building up its supply of spare transformers and conducting regular drills to deal with a major space weather event, said Mark Prouse, deputy director of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, a ministerial department.
Within the past 15 years, the U.S. and U.K. have built space weather forecasting centers that deliver daily outlooks on what may be coming from the sun for airlines, power grids, satellite owners and anyone else threatened by solar flares. While Earth-bound observers can see explosive storms erupt on the sun, they can’t tell the true nature of the threat—exactly how potent it is—until the blast reaches a set of satellites 1 million miles from the planet. At that point, there is only 60 to 90 minutes until it hits Earth.
“Our ability to understand and predict the solar cycle is still very limited,” said William Murtagh, director of the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center.
Just as utilities can prepare for a severe thunderstorm by staging repair workers nearby, similar precautions could be taken ahead of a solar storm, according to Mark Olson, the reliability assessment manager for the North America Electric Reliability Corp., a nonprofit answerable to the U.S. and Canadian governments.
“You have the potential for very large areas to have voltage instability,” Olson said. “Situational awareness is the key here, just like in terrestrial weather events.”
Solar storms have their roots in an 11-year cycle that shifts the polarity of the sun’s magnetic field. The magnetic forces at work on the sun get tangled during the process, and can punch out through the surface, sending the sun’s plasma into outer space and potentially triggering electricity blackouts on Earth.
The most powerful geomagnetic storm ever recorded resulted in the 1859 Carrington Event, when telegraph lines electrified, zapping operators and setting offices ablaze in North America and Europe. If a storm of that magnitude were to hit today, it would likely cut power to millions if not billions of people.
“When I first started on this road and was briefed on space weather I raised an eyebrow,” said Prouse. “It is much more mainstream and some of the mystification is gone. You can now raise it as a risk and not get laughed at.”
See more here: phys.org
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Carbon Bigfoot
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Meet Tamitha Scov Highly Credentialed Space Weather Forecaster as she describes the recent event:
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Jerry Krause
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Hi Carbon and PSI Readers,
I dislike the PSI apparent policy of not directly identifying who the actual author of the posted articles are. When I went to Phys.Org I discovered that the author of this PSI article was (Brian K. Sullivan, a reporter for Bloomberg News) who had tweeted: “I am not a meteorologist, I just talk to lots of them.”
I Googled Tamitha Skov and found she has earned a doctorate which qualities her of a background in the SCIENCE of which she makes forecasts. So I conclude she is like a TV weather person who had degrees in meteorology and reports the weather which is being observed to be occurring and makes forecasts (based upon models created by meteorologists more directly involved in directly studying weather systems), upon many cases of past weather which had been observed,.
Now a problem I have observed is that the great destruction that the extreme weather storms hurricanes, typhoons, and tornados can cause is that the great destruction which I read could occur solar storms could cause here on Earth have not produced the really big destruction being forecast as a possibility.
Just a few months ago, a rare, but somewhat benign, ice storm disrupted electrical power to some for up to a week as utility crews from un-effected areas to reconstruct the downed power lines.
There are many articles posted here at PSI.org about how FEAR is being used to control people (us). It seems people forget high nuclear power plants were built but torn down before they generated any electrical power.
In the preface of a chemistry textbook titled ‘Chemistry for Changing Times’ 4th Ed. (1984) John W. Hill wrote: “We are sometimes force to make a best choice among only bad alternatives. and our decisions provide only temporary solutions to our problems. … We can best avoid mistakes by collecting as much information as possible before making critical decisions. SCIENCE is a means of gathering and evaluating information and CHEMISTRY is central to ALL THE SCIENCES.”
Some might judge Hill’s last statement to be arrogant and false and that’s their problem. For I ask: Do these doubters believe that MATTER is composed of ATOMS? If these doubters do believe that MATTER is composed of ATOMS, do they know whose experimental results forced the conclusion that matter was composed of ATOMS???.
Have a good day, Jerry
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MattH
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Hi Jerry and PSI readers.
A good place to start is https://spaceweather.com
It allows the reader to become informed of variable energy intensities in relation to the solar cycles. There are amazing photographs of auroras as well as coronal mass ejections and predictions of when these will impact planet earth.
Have a good day.
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Carbon Bigfoot
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Jerry are you having a bad day?
Your characterization of Dr. Skov as a TV weatherman is rather disingenuous. Her full CV includes: Tamitha Skov received the B.S. degree in physics and physical chemistry, and the M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in geophysics and planetary physics from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, USA, in 1996, 2000, and 2002, respectively. She held a National Aeronautical and Space Administration Space Grant Fellowship from 1996 to 1999, while with UCLA. In 2004, she joined The Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, where she is currently a Research Scientist with the Space Materials Laboratory. She does her Space Forecasting out of her basement as a labor of love to advance a new science that is very compelling—not the trivialization you professed to have some knowledge of.
Now aren’t you embarrassed by your ignorance??
Another faux pas is that Brian Sullivan formerly worked as a Bloomberg Anchor & Producer of Bloomberg’s Morning Report many years ago. He is an attorney and many times he reports like one.
Brian left Bloomberg several years ago and joined CNBC as an Energy Reporter covering OPEC. During the Shale Revolution last decade he covered all the North Dakota and Texas drill sites and the LNG Infrastructure in Sabine Pass. I found him credible and accurate despite having limited technical background and working for a liberal network.
These days Sully hosts CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange M-F 5:00-6:00 AM. He’s is great interviewer and provides an informative and entertaining morning get-up. I get up to let the dogs out-this is an added benefit to monitor my portfolios before the markets open. You out there on the left coast have to resort to podcasts to access the content.
And although I find most of your posts educational, I can’t say I found your sarcasm worthy of your normal intellectual diatribe this time.
Jerry have a very informed evening. Carbon
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Joseph Olson
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thanks for the JK rebuttal, but if space weather is as predictable as Earth weather it’s useless
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MattH
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Space weather is fascinating and many correlations between space weather and earth’s atmospheric weather and climate variables have been identified.
Many of those correlations require more research to avoid being debunked for cause and effect but space weather opens up a whole kaleidoscope of cumulative causes to earths climate and weather system.
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
Did you read and ponder: ““Our ability to understand and predict the solar cycle is still very limited,” said William Murtagh, director of the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center.”
Have a good day, Jerry
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MattH
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Hi Jerry and readers.
Jerry. “Did you read and ponder: ““Our ability to understand and predict the solar cycle is still very limited,” said William Murtagh, director of the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center”.
Matt. My new name is the Ponderosa. I have been doing a bonanza of pondering.
They know that a solar cycle can be anything from 10 to 12 years per cycle, average is 11 years.
There are solar scientists who are predicting a very active sun over the next 22 to 33 years and those who are predicting a grand solar minimum over this period based on the patterns of the past solar cycles. You would not want to bet your house on either prediction.
Solar scientists also cannot predict when CMEs will occur but they know that in the middle of a solar cycle there are years where there is a sunspot occurrence every day and at the turn of one cycle into the next there can be approximately 70% of the days in a year without a sunspot. That just happens to coincide with what they call a meridional jet stream.
I happen to favour the patterns of the past because through historic patterns we can predict the longest and shortest day of the year and many other manifestations of the natural world.
It is only beginning to occur that scientists can discuss space weather without facing ridicule.
What is fascinating is this is a field of science still in relative infancy. Enjoy the ride.
Best wishes. Matt
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Jerry Krause
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Hi MattH,
Have you pondered that Jupiter had a Sidereal Period of 11.86 earth years? And that Jupiter’s eccentricity is about 3 times that of the earth. And that the mass of Jupiter is about 318 times that of the earth while Jupiter’s surface gravity is only about three that of the earth. I have read that Newton wrote that he could not calculate the motions of the moon because of the influence of Jupiter’s gravity.
Can you ponder how Jupiter can have a surface gravity less than 3 times that of the Earth? A clue is the question: How can gaseous planet, like Jupiter is understood to be, have a SURFACE.?
Have a good day, Jerry
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Carbon Bigfoot
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Joe I am somewhat conflicted by the Space Weather term, rather Solar Activity might best describe Dr. Skov’s work as it relates to our activities here on Earth, namely GPS, Radio (short-wave & ham ) satellite and GRID interruptions and radiation exposure to Pilots & Attendants. You and others owe it to yourselves to view one of Dr. Skov’s video in its entirety and then let me know if it has scientific merit. Here is a short 7 minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfMDbesGWjA
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Protestant
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This is just more fearmongering. There is no danger from the Sun, and never has been. Take off your sunglasses and look directly at the Sun. It will not harm your eyes. It isn’t even hot! If it were, the hottest place would be the top of Mount Everest. It is just the atmosphere that heats up, giving us the impression that the Sun is hot.
And it isn’t billions of miles away from us, either. What are the odds that the Sun & Moon would look exactly the same size if the Sun were far away? It’s time to wake up, and realise that almost everything we’ve been told is a lie.
Remember:
“Without the Sun, the earth would be just a cold, dark rock.”
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