Russia’s Ballistic Missile deployments along Ukraine’s Eastern Border
The Ukrainians are bringing knives to a gunfight. Kudos to The Drive’s January 19th gallery of stills and videos evincing Russia’s Iskander-M (pictured) build-up along Ukraine’s eastern border.
(1) Best estimates have 48 launchers deployed, each packing two Iskander-M missiles, and with plenty of spare ammo on hand.
Although by no means an exemplar, this article is not Russian-friendly, hence discusses the Iskander deployment with obligatory references to the missiles’ “nuclear potential” and to its ability to strike Kiev. This is hyperbole. The arrayed Iskander-M fleet carry conventional warheads and they will strike frontline Ukrainian Army assets.
Contemporary reportage on potential Ukrainian war scenarios read like World War II re-enactments. (Indeed, the adversaries increasingly dress the part.) Scenarios envision clashes of infantry and armour – boots on the ground and main battle tanks. Generals plan to re-fight the last war, not their next war.
Either through groupthink and/or hidden censorship, Ukrainian forces act as though they are in denial of the Iskander-M’s game-changing presence.
The Iskander-M is a late Cold War weapon re-purposed for regional conflicts; and, ideally suited for attacking second-tier military forces. The Iskander-M is a miniaturized knock-off of America’s Pershing-II.
While not the first tractor-drawn ballistic missile system with a hydraulically erected launch silo, the Pershing II represented a break-through in miniaturization, guidance, and speed. It was exclusively intended to carry nuclear warheads. 108 Pershing IIs were deployed in West Germany in the early 1980s. After the 1988 Intermediate-Range Weapons Treaty nixed the Pershing II program all 108 were withdrawn and scrapped.
Diametrically, 1988 heralded Iskander’s conception. The program survived the break-up of the Soviet Union, although effective deployment of Iskander-M systems was delayed until 2006. While the Iskander-M can carry nuclear warheads; this is not its designed mission. (Moreover, Volkswagens can carry nuclear warheads.)
Iskander-M rockets carry several types of conventional warhead i.e., high explosive, fragmenting submunitions, electro-magnetic pulse, thermobaric, bunker-buster etc. Iskander-M launch systems also fire sub-sonic cruise missiles.
Pershing IIs were two-stage rockets weighing 7,500 kilograms. Iskander-M launch vehicles carry two separate single-stage rockets with a combined weight of 7,600 kilograms. Both systems use rapid-fire solid fuels. (Liquid fueling must be done on site and is time-consuming.) Pershing IIs were 10.6 metres long and 1 metre wide. Iskander-Ms are 7.3 metres long and 0.9 metres wide. The Pershing II flew faster (Mach 8 versus Mach 6) and further (1,800 kilometres versus 450 kilometres) than the Iskander-M.
Currently, the Ukrainian government faces its domestic adversaries across a jagged 500-kilometre frontline. To the west are 125,000 Ukrainian soldiers (half of Ukraine’s total troop strength). To the east lie the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, together boasting 35,000 troops. The Ukrainians contend, and the Russians deny, an additional 3,000 Russian Special Ops troops bolster the breakaway Republics’ upstart armies.
To the east of Donbass lies Russia’s western border whereupon some 100,000 troops and 48 Iskander-M launchers are deployed. Not far to the south, and off the east coast of the Azov Sea, Russian cruise-missile frigates hold anchor.
No part of the frontline is much more than 100 kilometres away from the Russian border. Almost all of Ukraine’s forward forces are concentrated in pockets within 200 kilometres of the Iskander launch vehicles. Ukraine’s forces are sitting ducks. Compressed parabola trajectories will allow 800-kilogram warheads to hit targets at six times the speed of sound within minutes of launch. The system boasts an ability to hit a 7-metre diameter circle from 400 kilometres away.
The Russians possess up-to-the-minute data from drones, satellites, high altitude aircraft, ground reconnaissance, and intelligence intercepts regarding the micro-locations of Ukrainian frontline deployments. The Iskander-M possesses four guidance systems including one operating on a data base of digital photographs of routes and targets which the Russians have surveyed, from the air, countless times.
The first half-hour of the rumoured war’s kinetic engagement may see 96 Iskander warheads, and as many sea-launched cruise missiles, hitting the Ukrainian Army’s: fuel storage depots, command-and-control infrastructure, transportation hubs, troop concentrations, artillery pieces, and arsenals etc. The Ukrainian Army could not withstand one hour of such battering; and they have zero defence.
Road-mobile short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems rely on shoot-and-scoot tactics to continuously conceal the location of the launchers. Iskander-Ms can be camouflaged, shielded with smokescreens, and surrounded by decoys. Ukraine’s Air Force and Army attack helicopters will have to prowl slowly at low altitudes to find the Iskander-Ms. These missions must occur over Russian territory riddled with tens of thousands of combat-ready Russian troops wielding all manner of anti-aircraft weaponry. The Ukrainians will not take-out a single Iskander by such means.
Nor do the Ukrainians possess artillery or missiles capable of reaching the Iskander launchers.
Nor do they have missile intercept capabilities.
This may be the first modern Post-Cold War war, i.e., the first decisive use of the advances in ballistics and guidance, gained during the Cold War’s twilight years, to deliver conventional, legal warheads.
Iran, North Korea, China replicated Russia’s investment in road-mobile SRBM technology while the West gambled heavily on fighter-bombers. Saudi, South Korean and Taiwanese airfields are big stationary targets. Tractors and trailers can be made almost undetectable from the air.
Footnotes
Header image: Youtube
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