Revisiting the Carbon Cycle With Facts Instead Of Assumptions
I would like to draw your attention to a recent paper I published with Camille Veyres (lead author) and Jean-Claude Maurin, entitled “Revisiting the Carbon Cycle”, in Science of Climate Change, Vol. 5(3), pp. 135–185
In this work, we present evidence that several central concepts used by the IPCC—such as the airborne fraction, the Bern model, the notion of a long adjustment time, the claimed persistence of 15–50 percent of ‘fossil-fuel’ CO₂ for 1,000 years, assumed bottlenecks between atmosphere and ocean, very low surface-to-deep-ocean fluxes, and Revelle’s buffer factor—are not supported by observational constraints and may reflect misleading theoretical constructs.
Abstract
The stock-to-outflow ratio of CO₂ molecules in the atmosphere is about five years. Accordingly, only about 5.5 percent of the atmospheric CO₂ stock comes from ‘fossil fuel’ emissions not yet absorbed by vegetation or oceans, while 94.5 percent originates from natural outgassing of oceans and soils.
This interpretation is supported by the δ¹³C record at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO). The 50 percent increase in vegetation productivity since 1900 can be attributed to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and a longer growing season.
Decarbonization policies may therefore affect only 5.5 percent of atmospheric CO₂. Moreover, the strong month-by-month correlation, over nearly 800 months, between the increments of the CO₂ stock at MLO (altitude 3.4 km) and the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the inter-tropical zone shows that 94.5 percent of atmospheric CO₂ reflects the time-integrated effect of past surface temperatures, themselves determined by surface insolation.
ARIMA time-series modeling further supports the correlation between 12-month increments of MLO CO₂ and SST. By contrast, there is no correlation (R² = 0.01) between the detrended 12-month CO₂ increments and ‘fossil-fuel’ emissions.
Simple models of carbon fluxes and stocks for the oceans, atmosphere, and vegetation & soils, assuming ocean degassing driven by inter-tropical SST, reproduce the observed time series atmospheric CO₂, δ¹³C and vegetation productivity since 1900.
The paper is accessible in open access on the SCC website, and also available here:
https://www.researchgate.net/
Bold emphasis added
Editor’s note: PSI and many other skeptics have said repeatedly that even if we ‘decarbonised’ the entire world, we would only reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 by around five percent. and would have destroyed our civilisation in the process.