PolitiFact & FB Spread Dangerous Falsehood on Covid-19 Survival Rate
In a PolitiFact article titled “Why the Covid-19 Survival Rate Is Not Over 99 percent,” staff writer Jason Asenso argues that about 1.7 percent of U.S. residents who contract Covid-19 die from it.
However, he uses a naive approach to calculate this figure, and legitimate methods show that the average Covid-19 survival rate is firmly over 99 percent.
Medical journals have documented the deadly harms of exaggerating the fatality rate of Covid-19. Nevertheless, Facebook is amplifying PolitiFact’s false claim by using it to censor genuine facts about this issue.
The Denominator Problem
PolitiFact calculates the C-19 death rate by dividing the number of people who “have died” from C-19 by the number of “confirmed Covid-19 cases” in the United States. Using data from August 6, 2021, this is 614,300 deaths divided by 35.2 million cases, which equals 1.7 percent.
That simplistic calculation suffers from a fatal flaw that medical scholars have repeatedly refuted. For example, a 2020 paper published by Cambridge University Press warns that this approach produces a large “mortality overestimation” for Covid-19 because it confuses two very different measures of mortality called the “case fatality rate” and the “infection fatality rate.” The first of these is the rate of death among confirmed cases of the disease, while the second is the rate among everyone who has had it, including people who were asymptomatic or never diagnosed with it.
The size of the gap between those figures was estimated by a 2020 paper in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. The study found that 13 percent of all C-19 infections in the U.S. from the outset of the pandemic through September 2020 were “recognized and reported.” This means that for every reported case in the first six months of the pandemic, there were about seven cases that went unreported.
While that gap has dropped over time due to more extensive testing, high rates of mild and asymptomatic C-19 ensure that many new cases are not reported. In the words of a November 2021 CDC article:
Case reporting underestimates the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections because of underdetection of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases and variation in the use and availability of diagnostic testing.
Despite PolitiFact’s failure to recognize this fact, medical scholars have publicly emphasized it since early in the pandemic. For instance, Dr. Brett Giroir—the Assistant Secretary for Health at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services—informed journalists in March 2020 that the Covid-19 death rate is “lower than you heard probably in many reports” because “many people” with C-19 “don’t get sick and don’t get tested.” He called this a “denominator problem” because all of those people “do not get counted in the denominator.”
By ignoring these masses of unreported cases, PolitiFact’s method shrinks the denominator in the death rate calculation, making the rate seem far higher than reality. As detailed in the Cambridge University Press paper, this blunder was the likely cause of a “10-fold increased mortality overestimation in March 11, 2020, US Congressional testimony.”
Incidentally, the person who gave that testimony was Dr. Anthony Fauci, even though it conflicted with a commentary he had recently coauthored for the New England Journal of Medicine. In it, he and two other federal health officials explained, “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than one percent.”
Without relying on that assumption, a diverse array of medical journals and organizations have accounted for unreported cases and determined that the C-19 fatality rate is well below 1%. This includes but is not limited to the following:
- In March 2020, Oxford University’s Center for Evidence-Based Medicine estimated that the C-19 fatality rate ranged from 0.17 to 0.25 percent. In October 2020, it slightly revised this to “somewhere between 0.1 and 0.35 percent.”
- In January 2021, the Bulletin of the World Health Organization published a study that estimated the C-19 fatality rate at 0.23 percent. This is about 1/15th of the World Health Organization’s March 2020 estimate of 3.4% that failed to account for unreported cases.
- In September 2020, the CDC published the following “best” estimates of Covid-19 infection fatality rates for people of varying ages:
- 0.003 percent for people aged 0–19 years.
- 0.02 percent for people aged 20–49 years.
- 0.5 percent for people aged 50–69 years.
- 5.4 percent for people aged 70+ years.
The last of those figures for the oldest age group was corroborated a month later by a study in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. It found that Danes aged 70 and above had a C-19 fatality rate of 5.4 percent. Likewise, The Lancet published a study in April 2021 that estimated the C-19 fatality rate at 4.3 to 7.4 percent among people aged 65 and older in Geneva Switzerland.
Due to widespread misreporting like this article from PolitiFact, the public has been grossly misled about this matter. A scientific survey commissioned by Just Facts in November 2020 found that 65% of U.S. voters believed the C-19 death rate for people aged 70 and above is 25 percent or higher, and 39% of voters thought that half of everyone in this age bracket died if they caught C-19.
Trusting Claims Over Facts
PolitiFact is well aware of the CDC figures above because the target of its so-called fact check explicitly quotes them, and PolitiFact links to the CDC’s document that contains them. However, PolitiFact claims that “the data does not show the likelihood of surviving Covid-19.” Instead, PolitiFact reports, “These numbers are meant to be used for estimates of death over time, said Dr. Ruth Etzioni, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Washington School of Public Health.”
Those assertions directly conflict with the CDC document in question, which states that the figures are for the “infection fatality ratio” under “the existing standard of care.” The document leaves no room for misinterpreting this because it defines the infection fatality ratio as “the number of individuals who die of the disease among all infected individuals (symptomatic and asymptomatic).”
Moreover, the document highlights the inherent flaw in PolitiFact’s calculation by explaining that the infection fatality ratio “is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported case because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be Covid-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die.”
In short, PolitiFact disregarded the obvious facts of this matter in favor of an unsupported claim from a selected professor.
That’s not “fact checking.” It is misusing cherry-picked experts to spread counterfactual claims.
Dangerous Misinformation
In the 2020 Cambridge University Press paper, Dr. Ronald B. Brown—a Ph.D. who specializes in pathophysiology and epidemiology—documents the mortal dangers of overstating fatality rates and emphasizes that these “seemingly minor miscalculations” can develop “into disasters.” His prime example is the C-19 pandemic.
In the paper, Brown details how false fatality rates sparked “exaggerated levels of fear” and “severe mitigating measures” that “caused considerable global social and economic disruption.” Some outcomes of this include “domestic violence, closed businesses and schools, laid off workers,” “anxiety, anger, and posttraumatic stress,” “massive” growth in government debt, alcohol abuse, and preventing “people from seeking needed health-care services.”
Reams of medical publications have confirmed such harms. A tiny sample of these includes studies and analyses from the American College of Emergency Physicians, the journal European Psychiatry, the CDC, the Kaiser Family Foundation, the journal Frontiers in Public Health, and American Journal of Health Economics, and the Journal of the American Medical Association.
With disregard for those deadly implications and the straightforward facts of this matter, PolitiFact is resurrecting the falsehood that the average Covid-19 death rate is firmly above one percent.
This claim, which was prevalent near the outset of the pandemic, has been thoroughly debunked.
Intensifying the risks of these grave dangers, Facebook is using PolitiFact’s misinformation to censor a post which accurately quotes CDC estimates for the death rate. PolitiFact declares this is part of its “partnership with Facebook” to “combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed.”
See more here: justfactsdaily.com
Bold emphasis added
Header image: George Washington University
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WKM
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‘This Ends the Debate’— Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13 TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE Than Vaccines at Stopping Delta
Get the virus, not the shot.
https://tsionizm.com/science-technology/2021/08/27/this-ends-the-debate-israeli-study-shows-natural-immunity-13x-more-effective-than-vaccines-at-stopping-delta/
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bill
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An accurate take on how they lie with statistics. I wish this was what was plastered all over social media and MSM sound bites. But it’s not. Fear is whats on the menu for the plebs. Just like that “750,000” death number- (completely manipulated fear porn btw). But just ignore all case death rates per nation and planet wide. If people really knew and understood just how many humans die each hour, day, week month etc… that perspective would be eye opening to them. People die. The average is 26 million per year, think about that before anyone gets wound up in a minuscule number that does not deviate from any above average cold/flu season.
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Allan Shelton
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Is it true that Politifact is a Democratic Party run website??
If so then it is no surprise that they lie.
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richard
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the problem is –
“On March 20th the President of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute confirmed that Germany counts any deceased person who was infected with coronavirus as a Covid19 death, whether or not it actually caused death.”
“In the United States, a briefing note from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Service read as follows –
It is important to emphasise that Coronavirus Disease 19, or Covid-19, should be reported for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to death.
“Presumed to have caused”? “Contributed”? That’s incredibly soft language, which could easily lead to over-reporting.
The referenced detailed “guidance” was released April 3rd, and is no better [again, our emphasis]:
In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely"
“Northern Ireland’s HSC Public Health Agency is releasing weekly surveillance bulletins on the pandemic, in those reports they define a “Covid19 death” as:
individuals who have died within 28 days of first positive result, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death"
“The official NHS guidance for doctors filling out death certificates is just as vague [our emphasis]:
if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.
The government is telling doctors it is OK to list “Covid-19” as a cause of death when there is literally no evidence the deceased was infected. That means there are potentially huge numbers of “Covid19 deaths” that were never even tested for the disease”
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Sol
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Hello everyone here so good news.
The kick them back has started.!
We are all Australia!
https://www.globalresearch.ca/video-goodbye-premier-dan-andrews-melbourne-rebellion-begun/5761329
Hugs to the PSI crew and to everyone “on our side”
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Eric the Red
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These protests should broadly and explicitly advertise that Edwards is definitely going to be tried, convicted, and hung when his tyranny is overthrown. We need to incessantly hammer home this message, and put the fear of God into these people. Make them very very afraid, so that their mental state becomes unbalanced to the point where their actions become even more recognizably insane, and should no longer be followed. As the left is fond of saying, the more the better.
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JaKo
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Hi Sol,
I rarely read all contributions from Prof Chossudovsky’s website, so I must thank you for bringing this one up! The lyrics! — I bet the police commissioners are teaching their deputies to do the “Pie Jesu Domine, dona eis requiem” ritual now…
Cheers, JaKo
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Sol
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You are most welcome.
As they say, we must strike the hammer while the iron is hot.
Positive news are a breath of fresh air for everyone, an specially for those using the written words to fight for our rights and to keep us informed.
Have a great day!
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Doug Harrison
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Thank you Sol for the video. As a Kiwi who spent 20 years in Aus and married my bride from there 50 years ago I could not believe that the Ausies I knew could let themselves be sh*t upon as you have been by your Govt and this gives me hope that there will be a consequence for the bastards who perpetrated these crimes. If it starts there it might even spread to my country.
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Sol
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It is already happening everywhere, and even if the mainstream media is ignoring it, the people are not.
They try to push us over the edge of the precipice, but to bring us there they have to also come close to that edge and once they have passed the threshold of their own safety, they become more vulnerable than everyone else.
I remember the grate people of New Zealand, which in my opinion is also the most beautiful and peaceful country I have ever visited.
You are a country of just warriors, and I trust you will succeed.
Haka for justice!
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E. Nichols
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Politifarce is known for distorting truth and facts, what is interesting about this assessment is the fact they ignore the CDC data. On the CDC website it is quite clear that death from CV-19 is not distinguished from death with CV-19. Now it is quite obvious the actual numbers are lower than what reported. However that does not matter to the left, what matters is that everyone is vaccinated for a disease that 99.9% of people under 70 survive. These people do not deal with facts this is another political hit piece attempting to cover for the corrupt government and Big Pharma.
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Eric the Red
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It’s obvious that the covid cultists play with statistics. The ability to play games with categories, timelines, reporting criteria, and databases, and then make pompous summary announcements, has achieved new heights here in Covidmanialand. But in trying to point out one of their errors, this article stumbles into another danger. Specifically, it concedes that there is such a thing as asymptomatic carriers, a category that when applied to unvaccinated people, provides a perfect excuse for the vaxx tyrants to impose lockdowns and quarantines and passes to their evil hearts’ content.
I would go about the original issue another way. First of all, there is no such thing as an asymptomatic unvaccinated covid carrier. It’s just flat out wrong, and has never been proven in the few medical studies that exist, starting with WHO report 73. Next, if we’re going to critique the survival rate calculation, we would do well to look at the numerator. How is the category defined from which data is collected and then assigned to the numerator? For one thing, there is no distinction made between those who die OF covid versus those who die WITH covid. Next, we must consider the quality of care for people exhibiting covid symptoms. The regimen permitted by the covid death cult not only does not permit drugs like Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquinone/zinc to be used, but it also requires god-awful remdesivir and ventilators to be forced on patients. Both of those treatments have known side effects that will quickly, and I do mean quickly, kill off the patient, renal failure within 5 days for the former, and capillary collapse in the lungs with the latter.
In summary, when we reexamine the calculation for survival rate, we must change that damn numerator. As for the denominator, the case fatality rate may actually be closer to a more meaningful figure, although it too, must be examined carefully in light of all the above.
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very old white guy
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0.26% death rate from the whu who flu.
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Tom
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There is no way I would ever trust these sources for anything. If we had a real pandemic, millions would be dying literally in the streets and everything would be shuttered, including stupid, useless governments.
After almost 2 years, most people likely have some kind of natural immunity. The sick are those who have dared to take the experimental injections and are now suffering the horrid backlash as their immune systems become compromised by wretched spike proteins.
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